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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 111679 times)
Angel of Death
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« Reply #475 on: June 18, 2016, 07:36:55 am »

Unless there is a clear victory for one side or the other, there will now inevitably be a cloud over the outcome of the referendum as a result of this murder.
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« Reply #476 on: June 18, 2016, 08:06:39 am »

Conveniently, polls show a reasonably clear margin of victory now ... for both sides.

BMG online and telephone polls show opposite results

Telephone poll (incorporating undecideds): Remain 53.3, Leave 46.7
Online poll (excluding undecideds): Remain 44.5, Leave 55.5

Two points of note in these data are that the telephone/online poll discrepancy seems to have reemerged, and that the telephone poll data on undecideds corroborates data seen elsewhere: a break for Remain of about 2:1.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #477 on: June 18, 2016, 10:26:43 am »

Someone on the UK Polling Report blog has noticed that, for the phone poll, remain had a 1% lead among people responding to the first call, but a 3-5% lead for people responding to the other calls.

Could be indicating that leave supporters are much easier to contact, and as a result, the polls may be overstating leave's actual lead?

Certainly, in Scotland, the polls were averaging about a 4% lead for the "no" campaign in the the  days before the vote, and it won by 10% in the end.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #478 on: June 18, 2016, 11:07:18 am »

The EU referendum was meant to be a Tory nightmare – but it has become one for Labour



BY GEORGE EATON

Remain strategists needed Labour voters to clear a path to victory. They may now perform that service for Leave instead. As many as 40 per cent of them back Brexit, compared to just 4 per cent of Labour MPs. In the view of one shadow cabinet minister: “It’s over already.” MPs speak of “horrific” postal vote returns.

The slide in Labour support is the main cause of anxiety in Downing Street. It was the Remain camp’s ominous internal polling that prompted David Cameron to clear the Tories’ media grid and make way for Gordon Brown and Jeremy Corbyn. His survival as Prime Minister now depends on those who voted against him last year.

MPs do not disguise the supreme obstacle facing their party. “Immigration cutting through is a nightmare for us,” a former shadow cabinet minister bluntly stated. Most MPs, principally those in the north of England and the Midlands, tell a similar tale. Some refuse to canvass local estates for fear of the abuse that they will attract. The Leave campaign’s vow to end the free movement of people trumps any offer from Remain.


http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/eu-referendum-was-meant-be-tory-nightmare-it-has-become-one-labour
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #479 on: June 18, 2016, 11:49:46 am »

It's the same article he always writes.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #480 on: June 18, 2016, 03:34:58 pm »

Two new polls out -

Opinium has Remain and Leave both on 44% - remain unchanged and leave +2%

Survation has remain 45% (up 3) and leave on 42% (down 3)

https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Given the last week or so, this would seem fairly encouraging for remain.

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Vega
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« Reply #481 on: June 18, 2016, 04:09:47 pm »

Two new polls out -

Opinium has Remain and Leave both on 44% - remain unchanged and leave +2%

Survation has remain 45% (up 3) and leave on 42% (down 3)

https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Given the last week or so, this would seem fairly encouraging for remain.



Does the Survation poll use the same methodology as the one from 3 days ago? Do to it being released so fast, I imagine not?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #482 on: June 18, 2016, 04:17:35 pm »



Does the Survation poll use the same methodology as the one from 3 days ago? Do to it being released so fast, I imagine not?

tabs

I haven't seen anything indicating a methodology change, could be the Jo Cox factor though, even if not actually changing anyone's voting intention, it could have made people a bit more reluctant to express support for leave on a phone poll.

Yougov have also just come up with Remain 42% (+3) leave 44% (-2%), done before the murder, which would seem good for remain although I imagine is just regression to the mean after the previous 7 point lead for leave, which was probably a bit of an outlier.

edit - and now yet another yougov which is remain 44, leave 43. I'm not ready to get my hopes up just yet though.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 04:30:31 pm by parochial_boy »Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #483 on: June 18, 2016, 07:37:22 pm »

Some unsafe assumptions there I think.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #484 on: June 18, 2016, 08:06:45 pm »

I think what will really determine this referendum is the working class votes,
the turnout among C2 and  DEs have been low for over 25 years,
if turnout of the working class matches the level of turnout with the AB and C1s then it's a leave victory.

As an aside, may I just remark how much of a Brave New World vibe I'm getting from these grades?
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« Reply #485 on: June 18, 2016, 10:38:58 pm »

Despite the poll that was released on Saturday, I still see Britain leaving the EU, and then Cameron will probably leave as PM and Tory Leader. Another potential Tory leader is Oliver Letwin, who is the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Letwin would be a potentially good choice for the Tories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Letwin
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YL
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« Reply #486 on: June 19, 2016, 01:45:28 am »

Problem for the Leave Camp, is some of the voters they really need, haven't voted and might not vote, places like Doncaster, Stroke-on-Trent, Great Grimsby, Bromwich and Leigh, which are labour heartlands and a fertile ground for brexit, have the lowest turnout in the country. With parts of stroke on Trent bellow 50% turnout.

Is the health situation in the Potteries that bad?
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« Reply #487 on: June 19, 2016, 03:08:54 am »

MoS is a more "upmarket" rag than its daily sister. Also the editors hate each other.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #488 on: June 19, 2016, 04:40:44 am »

Why I'm Out: To be against the EU is not to be against Europe




by DAVID LISTER


In the last few weeks I have seen government ministers tell us that the EU has given us the benefit of annual leave. Yet I am old enough to remember the world before 1973, and I know that there were annual holidays, just as there are now. Those same people boast almost daily of the workers’ rights that the EU has brought, yet most of those are laws enacted by a British government.

And the economy? Well, yes, thanks to 40-plus years EU membership we are the fifth largest economy in the world. And what were we in 1970, three years before joining? We were – guess what – the fifth largest economy in the world.

One can be passionately in favour of a multi-cultural society and immigration, but passionately against uncontrolled immigration, though you wouldn’t know it to listen to the IN campaigners.

For the future, of course we will be able to find new trade deals. Australia trades with America, Africa and Europe, why on earth shouldn’t we?

And lastly, let’s nail another growing myth – that to be against the EU is to be against Europe. I love Europe, will continue to visit it regularly and feel a part of it, just as many did before 1973. But we can share that closeness, and the many common objectives, while at the same time being a sovereign country, making our own laws, accepting the many migrants we want from around the world, developing our own trading partners, making our own laws, and, on that harder to articulate, visceral level, glorying in our own identity and character.


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-im-out-to-be-against-the-eu-is-not-to-be-against-europe-a7087231.html

A surprising article in the heavily pro Remain Independent but one I strongly agree with Smiley
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #489 on: June 19, 2016, 06:48:06 am »

I wonder how many Scots will cynically vote for Leave to improve their (own) chances of independence.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #490 on: June 19, 2016, 09:10:36 am »

Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
joevsimp
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« Reply #491 on: June 19, 2016, 09:18:21 am »

Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.

North East will be lower than that, but I think you're right that Wales will be in line with non-metropolitan England rather than with Scotland and NI
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« Reply #492 on: June 19, 2016, 09:27:59 am »

I haven't seen anything pointing to a Brexit win at this point, when you factor in how a referendum actually works.
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I haven't seen anything pointing to a Brexit win at this point, when you factor in how a referendum actually works.

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Angel of Death
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« Reply #493 on: June 19, 2016, 11:49:49 am »

The prediction markets seem to be giving Remain a small bump after the murder.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #494 on: June 19, 2016, 11:57:26 am »

Are there any estimates what times the results will be announced?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #495 on: June 19, 2016, 12:03:07 pm »

Are there any estimates what times the results will be announced?

Funny, I was just about to post this useful election night guide:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #496 on: June 19, 2016, 12:25:40 pm »

 Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

Scotland
Most Remain: Edinburgh
Most Leave: In 1975 the only two county authorities to vote NO were the Shetland and Western Islands and Scotland was much more NO than the country as a whole - very different to now. In 2016 I suspect the NO vote will correspond to a) the Tory vote and b) Fishing communities... so I might go here for Moray, although I admit the Islands are a completely mystery to me and could go either way very strongly.

London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

North East
Most Remain: Newcastle-upon-Tyne
Most Leave: Hartlepool. I think here correlations to the UKIP should be clearer than elsewhere

Wales
I suspect REMAIN will do much better in Welsh-speaking Wales than elsewhere, where the vote will be more similar to England
Most Remain: Ceredigion
Most Leave: Denbighshire. In 1975 some of NO better areas anywhere were in the valleys but I dubious whether that will be repeat. Again, I expect low turnout in these uber-Labour areas (more so than I would expect heavy LEAVE votes, for which I see no polling evidence).

North West
Most Remain: Liverpool. This is a hunch based more on the idea that Merseyside is less nationalist inclined than elsewhere in England.
Most Leave: Ooofff... could be several. As nationalism is clearly an issue here, perhaps Barrow-in-Furness?

South East
Most Remain: Oxford. It will be either Oxford or Brighton and Hove.
Most Leave: Probably going to either in Kent or in one of those seaside towns populated with retired and cranky old Colonels... on this basis, I'd go with New Forest. This is the region where I'm least sure about how it will vote.

Yorkshire and the Humber
Remain: In 1975 North Yorkshire was the strongest area in the whole UK for YES - That was the farmers vote. How farmers will vote this time is one of the big mysteries (unpolled ffs) of this referendum, but it won't be anything as solid as last time around, but how North Yorkshire and a lot of Wales will vote is dependent on it. However, I will stay in North Yorkshire for most remain at least in Yorkshire - and I'd go with the university and railway city of York.
Leave: North Lincolnshire

South West:
Remain: Technically it will be Gibraltar, which is considered part of the South West for electoral purposes but nobody says it is part of the South West so therefore I choose Exeter. Ok it will probably be Bristol, but I'm going to pick a slightly less 'boring' option.
Leave: Torbay. For why see South East

West Midlands
Remain: I think this might be the most difficult to region to predict, but I'll go with the obvious and choose Birmingham
Leave: Could be several places, but I'll choose Walsall on the basis that iirc Walsall North is the constituency is the lowest amount of passport holders in the UK

East Midlands
Remain: Leicester
Leave: Somewhere in Lincolnshire. I'll pick the obvious one and go for Boston

East of England
Remain: Cambridge
Leave: Castle Point... Among several reasons, the LA with the lowest % anywhere in the UK for AV. Also a strong UKIP gain possibility.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2016, 01:21:37 pm by Tetro Kornbluth »Logged



Quote
Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
DavidB.
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« Reply #497 on: June 19, 2016, 01:23:47 pm »

I think Scotland will be more strongly "remain" than Northern Ireland. Scots seem to have decided that leaving is a bad idea because it represents a sort of English nationalism they despise, whereas this exact form of nationalism is espoused by many loyalists in Northern Ireland. Many of them may vote remain nonetheless, since leaving would probably hurt Ulster's economy, but a large percentage will follow the English nationalist mainstream and vote leave -- larger than the "leave" percentage in Scotland.
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afleitch
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« Reply #498 on: June 19, 2016, 03:33:43 pm »

I think Scotland will be more strongly "remain" than Northern Ireland. Scots seem to have decided that leaving is a bad idea because it represents a sort of English nationalism they despise, whereas this exact form of nationalism is espoused by many loyalists in Northern Ireland. Many of them may vote remain nonetheless, since leaving would probably hurt Ulster's economy, but a large percentage will follow the English nationalist mainstream and vote leave -- larger than the "leave" percentage in Scotland.

There is a sense that in many ways this referendum is an exercise in 'English nationalism' (and a particular sort of nationalism at that) and not anything remotely British in any sense. There are advantages in rUK voting out and Scotland voting in, whether that means we narrowly get pulled out or narrowly 'keep England in'.

The 'reticent unionist', concerned at the pound and remaining in the EU, rather than any particular attachment to the UK as a political entity are about 1 in 10 of the electorate and the key to what I do feel is inevitable independence, in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #499 on: June 19, 2016, 07:28:51 pm »

Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

I think they're being counted individually. Highest Remain is likely to be Foyle or Belfast West (based purely on demographics) or Newry/Armagh or West Tyrone (less Catholic but more agricultural and integrated economically across the border). Highest Leave at a guess East Antrim (not especially rural but heavily Protestant and working-class/lower middle-class Protestant at that) followed by Strangford.

Quote
London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

Hoey is Lambeth (the Vauxhall CLP must have the patience of Job at this stage or else be composed of a set of doormats). Overall in England, I'd expect a strong correlation between the Yes to AV vote and the Remain vote.
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