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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 103705 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #500 on: June 18, 2016, 04:17:35 pm »



Does the Survation poll use the same methodology as the one from 3 days ago? Do to it being released so fast, I imagine not?

tabs

I haven't seen anything indicating a methodology change, could be the Jo Cox factor though, even if not actually changing anyone's voting intention, it could have made people a bit more reluctant to express support for leave on a phone poll.

Yougov have also just come up with Remain 42% (+3) leave 44% (-2%), done before the murder, which would seem good for remain although I imagine is just regression to the mean after the previous 7 point lead for leave, which was probably a bit of an outlier.

edit - and now yet another yougov which is remain 44, leave 43. I'm not ready to get my hopes up just yet though.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 04:30:31 pm by parochial_boy »Logged
Audrey
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« Reply #501 on: June 18, 2016, 06:32:27 pm »

I find it odd that the Mail on Sunday came out for "Remain" and the Sunday Times came out for "leave" :/

The latest poll just echoes the phenomenon that happens days before referendums, the late swing back to the status quo.
 
I think what will really determine this referendum is the working class votes,
the turnout among C2 and  DEs have been low for over 25 years,
if turnout of the working class matches the level of turnout with the AB and C1s then it's a leave victory. The problems this haven't happened Since the 1950s. Hence Remain are still favourites to win.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #502 on: June 18, 2016, 07:37:22 pm »

Some unsafe assumptions there I think.
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« Reply #503 on: June 18, 2016, 08:06:45 pm »

I think what will really determine this referendum is the working class votes,
the turnout among C2 and  DEs have been low for over 25 years,
if turnout of the working class matches the level of turnout with the AB and C1s then it's a leave victory.

As an aside, may I just remark how much of a Brave New World vibe I'm getting from these grades?
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Audrey
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« Reply #504 on: June 18, 2016, 08:36:59 pm »

Euroscepticism have been championed by the left particualy socialists since the 1970s till 1990s, some tho remained Eurosecptic, from the 1990s onward it been on the right championed by liberaterians of the likes of Dan Hannan.

Running a liberation tho campaign would've been disastrous for eurosceptics, as it will turn of working class voters, it's a shame tho, the leave camp took the low road and scaremongered about immigration, rather then talk about the economy and sovereignty, Brussels corruption and other issues.
 
 According to the latest polls, working class voters tend to favour brexit contrary to  affluent middle class voters who favour Bremain. professor john curtice also emphasized that those who favour brexit are the most disadvantaged from globalization.

Problem for the Leave Camp, is some of the voters they really need, haven't voted and might not vote, places like Doncaster, Stroke-on-Trent, Great Grimsby, Bromwich and Leigh, which are labour heartlands and a fertile ground for brexit, have the lowest turnout in the country. With parts of stroke on Trent bellow 50% turnout.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/jun/14/labour-supporters-brexit-stoke-on-trent-eu-referendum-video

Most polls have been weighted by class and age, but pollsters lately been saying class may determine the outcome.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=et60HZuT7u0
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 08:40:46 pm by Aud3L »Logged
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« Reply #505 on: June 18, 2016, 10:38:58 pm »

Despite the poll that was released on Saturday, I still see Britain leaving the EU, and then Cameron will probably leave as PM and Tory Leader. Another potential Tory leader is Oliver Letwin, who is the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Letwin would be a potentially good choice for the Tories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Letwin
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YL
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« Reply #506 on: June 19, 2016, 01:45:28 am »

Problem for the Leave Camp, is some of the voters they really need, haven't voted and might not vote, places like Doncaster, Stroke-on-Trent, Great Grimsby, Bromwich and Leigh, which are labour heartlands and a fertile ground for brexit, have the lowest turnout in the country. With parts of stroke on Trent bellow 50% turnout.

Is the health situation in the Potteries that bad?
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Anybody But Conservative
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« Reply #507 on: June 19, 2016, 03:08:54 am »

MoS is a more "upmarket" rag than its daily sister. Also the editors hate each other.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #508 on: June 19, 2016, 04:40:44 am »

Why I'm Out: To be against the EU is not to be against Europe




by DAVID LISTER


In the last few weeks I have seen government ministers tell us that the EU has given us the benefit of annual leave. Yet I am old enough to remember the world before 1973, and I know that there were annual holidays, just as there are now. Those same people boast almost daily of the workers’ rights that the EU has brought, yet most of those are laws enacted by a British government.

And the economy? Well, yes, thanks to 40-plus years EU membership we are the fifth largest economy in the world. And what were we in 1970, three years before joining? We were – guess what – the fifth largest economy in the world.

One can be passionately in favour of a multi-cultural society and immigration, but passionately against uncontrolled immigration, though you wouldn’t know it to listen to the IN campaigners.

For the future, of course we will be able to find new trade deals. Australia trades with America, Africa and Europe, why on earth shouldn’t we?

And lastly, let’s nail another growing myth – that to be against the EU is to be against Europe. I love Europe, will continue to visit it regularly and feel a part of it, just as many did before 1973. But we can share that closeness, and the many common objectives, while at the same time being a sovereign country, making our own laws, accepting the many migrants we want from around the world, developing our own trading partners, making our own laws, and, on that harder to articulate, visceral level, glorying in our own identity and character.


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-im-out-to-be-against-the-eu-is-not-to-be-against-europe-a7087231.html

A surprising article in the heavily pro Remain Independent but one I strongly agree with Smiley
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« Reply #509 on: June 19, 2016, 06:48:06 am »

I wonder how many Scots will cynically vote for Leave to improve their (own) chances of independence.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #510 on: June 19, 2016, 09:10:36 am »

Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
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« Reply #511 on: June 19, 2016, 09:18:21 am »

Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.

North East will be lower than that, but I think you're right that Wales will be in line with non-metropolitan England rather than with Scotland and NI
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« Reply #512 on: June 19, 2016, 09:27:59 am »

I haven't seen anything pointing to a Brexit win at this point, when you factor in how a referendum actually works.
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I haven't seen anything pointing to a Brexit win at this point, when you factor in how a referendum actually works.

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Angel of Death
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« Reply #513 on: June 19, 2016, 11:49:49 am »

The prediction markets seem to be giving Remain a small bump after the murder.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #514 on: June 19, 2016, 11:57:26 am »

Are there any estimates what times the results will be announced?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #515 on: June 19, 2016, 12:03:07 pm »

Are there any estimates what times the results will be announced?

Funny, I was just about to post this useful election night guide:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #516 on: June 19, 2016, 12:25:40 pm »

 Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

Scotland
Most Remain: Edinburgh
Most Leave: In 1975 the only two county authorities to vote NO were the Shetland and Western Islands and Scotland was much more NO than the country as a whole - very different to now. In 2016 I suspect the NO vote will correspond to a) the Tory vote and b) Fishing communities... so I might go here for Moray, although I admit the Islands are a completely mystery to me and could go either way very strongly.

London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

North East
Most Remain: Newcastle-upon-Tyne
Most Leave: Hartlepool. I think here correlations to the UKIP should be clearer than elsewhere

Wales
I suspect REMAIN will do much better in Welsh-speaking Wales than elsewhere, where the vote will be more similar to England
Most Remain: Ceredigion
Most Leave: Denbighshire. In 1975 some of NO better areas anywhere were in the valleys but I dubious whether that will be repeat. Again, I expect low turnout in these uber-Labour areas (more so than I would expect heavy LEAVE votes, for which I see no polling evidence).

North West
Most Remain: Liverpool. This is a hunch based more on the idea that Merseyside is less nationalist inclined than elsewhere in England.
Most Leave: Ooofff... could be several. As nationalism is clearly an issue here, perhaps Barrow-in-Furness?

South East
Most Remain: Oxford. It will be either Oxford or Brighton and Hove.
Most Leave: Probably going to either in Kent or in one of those seaside towns populated with retired and cranky old Colonels... on this basis, I'd go with New Forest. This is the region where I'm least sure about how it will vote.

Yorkshire and the Humber
Remain: In 1975 North Yorkshire was the strongest area in the whole UK for YES - That was the farmers vote. How farmers will vote this time is one of the big mysteries (unpolled ffs) of this referendum, but it won't be anything as solid as last time around, but how North Yorkshire and a lot of Wales will vote is dependent on it. However, I will stay in North Yorkshire for most remain at least in Yorkshire - and I'd go with the university and railway city of York.
Leave: North Lincolnshire

South West:
Remain: Technically it will be Gibraltar, which is considered part of the South West for electoral purposes but nobody says it is part of the South West so therefore I choose Exeter. Ok it will probably be Bristol, but I'm going to pick a slightly less 'boring' option.
Leave: Torbay. For why see South East

West Midlands
Remain: I think this might be the most difficult to region to predict, but I'll go with the obvious and choose Birmingham
Leave: Could be several places, but I'll choose Walsall on the basis that iirc Walsall North is the constituency is the lowest amount of passport holders in the UK

East Midlands
Remain: Leicester
Leave: Somewhere in Lincolnshire. I'll pick the obvious one and go for Boston

East of England
Remain: Cambridge
Leave: Castle Point... Among several reasons, the LA with the lowest % anywhere in the UK for AV. Also a strong UKIP gain possibility.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2016, 01:21:37 pm by Tetro Kornbluth »Logged



Quote
Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
DavidB.
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« Reply #517 on: June 19, 2016, 01:23:47 pm »

I think Scotland will be more strongly "remain" than Northern Ireland. Scots seem to have decided that leaving is a bad idea because it represents a sort of English nationalism they despise, whereas this exact form of nationalism is espoused by many loyalists in Northern Ireland. Many of them may vote remain nonetheless, since leaving would probably hurt Ulster's economy, but a large percentage will follow the English nationalist mainstream and vote leave -- larger than the "leave" percentage in Scotland.
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afleitchأندرو
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« Reply #518 on: June 19, 2016, 03:33:43 pm »

I think Scotland will be more strongly "remain" than Northern Ireland. Scots seem to have decided that leaving is a bad idea because it represents a sort of English nationalism they despise, whereas this exact form of nationalism is espoused by many loyalists in Northern Ireland. Many of them may vote remain nonetheless, since leaving would probably hurt Ulster's economy, but a large percentage will follow the English nationalist mainstream and vote leave -- larger than the "leave" percentage in Scotland.

There is a sense that in many ways this referendum is an exercise in 'English nationalism' (and a particular sort of nationalism at that) and not anything remotely British in any sense. There are advantages in rUK voting out and Scotland voting in, whether that means we narrowly get pulled out or narrowly 'keep England in'.

The 'reticent unionist', concerned at the pound and remaining in the EU, rather than any particular attachment to the UK as a political entity are about 1 in 10 of the electorate and the key to what I do feel is inevitable independence, in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.
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« Reply #519 on: June 19, 2016, 07:28:51 pm »

Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

I think they're being counted individually. Highest Remain is likely to be Foyle or Belfast West (based purely on demographics) or Newry/Armagh or West Tyrone (less Catholic but more agricultural and integrated economically across the border). Highest Leave at a guess East Antrim (not especially rural but heavily Protestant and working-class/lower middle-class Protestant at that) followed by Strangford.

Quote
London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

Hoey is Lambeth (the Vauxhall CLP must have the patience of Job at this stage or else be composed of a set of doormats). Overall in England, I'd expect a strong correlation between the Yes to AV vote and the Remain vote.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #520 on: June 19, 2016, 09:29:26 pm »

Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

I think they're being counted individually. Highest Remain is likely to be Foyle or Belfast West (based purely on demographics) or Newry/Armagh or West Tyrone (less Catholic but more agricultural and integrated economically across the border). Highest Leave at a guess East Antrim (not especially rural but heavily Protestant and working-class/lower middle-class Protestant at that) followed by Strangford.

I have read conflicting things on this. I think they are counted individually but declared as one. Otherwise though I think you are right.

Quote
Quote
London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

Hoey is Lambeth (the Vauxhall CLP must have the patience of Job at this stage or else be composed of a set of doormats). Overall in England, I'd expect a strong correlation between the Yes to AV vote and the Remain vote.

Corrected on Hoey. And yes, agreed (with some local caveats).
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As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
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« Reply #521 on: June 19, 2016, 10:16:45 pm »

For those interested, here's a map of the AV referendum results. It is a pretty good proxy for 'Social Liberalism' (defined somewhat nebulously on purpose) in England. Note that in England the same areas (local authorities) that were used as counting areas in 2011 will be used as counting areas this time around. That is not the case in Wales or Scotland, which are also using local authorities on Thursday but used devolved parliamentary constituencies in 2011. This makes data comparisons much less straightforward than in England.
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Quote
Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
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« Reply #522 on: June 20, 2016, 04:37:05 am »

There is a sense that in many ways this referendum is an exercise in 'English nationalism' (and a particular sort of nationalism at that) and not anything remotely British in any sense. There are advantages in rUK voting out and Scotland voting in, whether that means we narrowly get pulled out or narrowly 'keep England in'.

The 'reticent unionist', concerned at the pound and remaining in the EU, rather than any particular attachment to the UK as a political entity are about 1 in 10 of the electorate and the key to what I do feel is inevitable independence, in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.

Couple of if's and but's here:

If the UK votes to Remain in the EU later on this week and if Scotland gets it's independence within the next 10-15 years (which like you I think will happen sooner or later) another vote for the rest of the UK to stay or go from the EU is quite likely in my view.

Why?

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country. The English and Welsh are not keen on this at all (and never have been).

Another in/out referendum at this point without the brake of Scottish Remain votes would very likely see England/Wales/Northern Ireland leave the European Union.

With a Remain vote on Thursday my feeling is that our departure from the EU will be delayed for a while but is in the long run inevitable.
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« Reply #523 on: June 20, 2016, 05:25:26 am »

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.
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« Reply #524 on: June 20, 2016, 07:46:47 am »

I wonder how many Scots will cynically vote for Leave to improve their (own) chances of independence.

Not many since a chunk of SNP voters do not want independence and another chunk are loyal to what Sturgeon and Salmond want them to do.

Fundamentalism (i.e independence through any means) in Scottish nationalism died around the 1990s. Gradualists have triumphed.
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