United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

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UKIP fixing itself would be a disaster for the anti-EU side. The party and its leader are both extremely polarising, they'll sink the vote.

Business are pushing for an earlier vote to get the uncertainty out of the way.

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Maybe this will be the start of French style "overseas constituencies".

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House of Lords may amend the Bill to give 16 year olds the vote. The Commons defeated a Labour led amendment to lower the age, but the heavy Liberal presence in the Lords could scupper Tory resistance.

This should be quite interesting to see how a Conservative government reacts with an unfriendly upper house. This must be the first time in history.

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To be fair (in regards to Chris) it seems that the eurosceptics are just as guilty of overplaying the immigration card. I can't blame them - immigration is a tangible concept that inflames debate; matters of EU intergration is dull, overly wordy/constitutional and only enjoyed (on both sides) by about 1% of the population..

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A lot of UKIP's base are more concerned about immigration than the EU. (Much, I think, to the consternation of the leadership)  they'll carry on, providing a safe space for cranky old colonels and EU-election-time lazy analysis.

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I wonder if Galloway will have any effect on certain areas of East London, Bradford etc.

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Brexit endorsed by David Owen (lmao)

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OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA

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OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA

"NO" = "remain", I assume?

Yes, which is weird because she voted UKIP. No idea why she changed her mind.

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Doesn't a lot of the SW use a lot of EU funds?

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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/01/exclusive-royal-family-considering-dramatic-brexit-intervention

Yes, I know that anonymous quotes from the Palace are classic sources of yellow journalism, but this article is hilarious. The characterisation of the Out campaigners, of Cameron, the random praise of Varafoukis and Tsipras (lol), Ant and Dec ... Not to mention this:

Another insider said early proposals to do a live broadcast have been rejected in favour of a pre-recorded session because of Philip’s propensity for swearing. “The words have to be perfect,” she said

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Never mind just remembered the date. Will leave up as testament of my silliness.

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The turnout in the AV Referendum in 2011 was 42% and in the general election last year it was 66%. Split the difference and you get 54%.

That sounds about right in this EU Referendum I think.

On the question on which result is best for the Labour Party my own feeling is that a Leave victory would be best electorally for them.

At the last general election around a million traditional Labour voters switched to UKIP. Given that around 40% of Labour voters are Eurosceptic a Remain win could well see another million defect at the next general election given the overwhelming (and unrepresentative) pro-EU stance of Labour MP's in the House of Commons.

It could be pretty much a win-win situation for UKIP. Leave wins and their whole reason for being has come to pass. Remain wins and they shoot up in the opinion polls in a similar way (although less so obviously) to the SNP following their independence referendum in Scotland.

I think you're overstaying the importance of the EU (as opposed to immigration) for the base. The EU is an issue that certain activists (pro and con) get worked up about, not real people.

As for UKIP, it depends on whether they keep a united shop between their two factions. Worst thing for them would be the Tories swiftly moving populist right by dropping The Chipping Norton Set and invading their niche.

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Polls show most of the Labour base don't even know Labour's own position on the EU. It's a completely peripheral issue to most voters, unless you're a fisherman - and the few people that are swung by such arguments have really never been labour voters to begin with (they were the working class heroes that the Tories endlessly pandered to during the Blair Yeatrs) . We have enough trouble keeping unity on other dumb stuff that no real voters care about like trident, why copy the Tories and decide to purge the PLP for the mythical deep and widespread working-class euroscepticism that the media Thinks is a thing?

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The UK sucks for not collecting its election data at polling station level. It's like they don't even think about all the beautiful maps that could be made

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CORNWALL HEAVY REMAIN

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In Northern Ireland there's a classic case of "if my enemy is for it then I am against it" sectarianism (on both sides) and the nonactivist voters/nonsectarian activists lean towards Remain because they prefer an uneasy status quo than the risky promises of the fleg wavers.

PBP as you might expect is a protest partly. You might lend your first preference to them, but you don't have to, ah, listen to them.

The funny thing is a brexit would probably be better for the Nationalists' aims than the Unionists'.

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Given the rarity of referendums here the personalities in the campaigns matter more than they would do if we were like a Switzerland or a California (i.e. where the issue at hand matters much more and the personalities matter less).

This is a common disease of referendums in countries without direct democracy as tradition (a prime example being the AV referendum).

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John Major's commentary on the Leave campaign is pretty brutal for such a dull technocrat.

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   Chris, keep working on your sister, I hope you turn her around.  Has the leave side mentioned the positive precedent of Switzerland, a non-EU state that is doing just fine without membership?

I dunno, it has a very high HIV infection rate and Mswati is running it into the ground.

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This should of been a comfortable win for remain but now it looks like leave has an advantage because the remain camp is being run by complete idiots

Where do they find the incompetents who run referendum campaigns, that's what I wanna know.

I think the only thing that will swing back to Remain is a big concerted effort by a Lqbour figure. Sadly Corbyn doesn't have his heart in it.

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It's actuallly shocking how bad the remain campaign has been, their only argument is the economy, and that is their response to every question from immigration to sovereignty.

They haven't even called out the Leave campaign for some of their more egregious lying (i.e. over Turkey). It's borderline astonishing.

The Leave campaign sent Enfield a letter with a map that had Syria and Iraq highlighted in orange.

(Although tbf to Remain,they are in an awkward position irt Turkey because they are used to the staus quo of pretending Turkey will ever be let in)

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Michael Give literally given a cute family interest piece on BBC news bullsh**tting about fishing quotas. Can't wait for this drip to alienate everybody and be exiled to the backbenches.

Also lol, looks like the Xi Jinping Stronkg!!!! tour really made an impression on people, lmao.

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Incidentally, why have no MEP's bothered to have a role In the campaign? You'd think that the remain campaign would want to show our democratic representatives to people sceptical of the EU as a mysterious distant black box.

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Incidentally, why have no MEP's bothered to have a role In the campaign? You'd think that the remain campaign would want to show our democratic representatives to people sceptical of the EU as a mysterious distant black box.

Nigel Farage and Dan Hannan have both played a pretty big role.

At which point there is surely something to say about Nigel Farage seeming reluctance to ever attend the parliament he was elected to be a representative in.

Exactly the problem. Why is Remain not trumpeting EU Remainers bragging out their achievements in parliament on defending British interesta and then saying "if we leave we follow the same rules ... but have no say".seems like a common sense argument if I was a campaigner.