United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So anyone wishing to call it this far out? I'm bored so I'll give it a go.

I'll say that the UK will vote to stay in about 53-47 but the regional variation will be significant. Excluding Gibraltar where I imagine it will be a YES mega-landslide for all sorts of obvious reasons (and wouldn't it be the most hilarious thing evah if the gap was so small in the referendum that Gibraltar's vote actually swung it?) I'd say Scotland, of reasons of the lack of appeal of little England-ism and the fact that it really is a separate country these days, will have the strongest YES with about 2-1 at least in favour of staying.  The strongest regions for NO will be the Eastern region and the West and East Midlands and in particular Lincolnshire, East Anglia (apart from Cambridge and Norwich themselves) and the Black Country. In England I suspect the strongest YES areas will be inner London and areas with large number of graduates whether Tory or Labour voters by inclination. They will do particularly well in small cities around the south, especially with those universities, so Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge, Norwich, Milton Keynes, Reading, etc. YES will win the more prosperous parts of the South East and Home Counties (such as Surrey, Berkshire and Oxfordshire) but NO will be favoured in its more downmarket parts and where UKIP have done well and white flight is an issue (so Essex and Kent). And, assuming that UK patterns replicate Irish patterns viz. support on the EU, I suspect that anywhere with lots of farmers and where agriculture is the dominant industry would lean YES, so North Yorkshire and Large parts of the West Country and Wales. The Welsh speaking parts of Wales in particular would be strong YES areas. In regards to the cities, I suspect that YES will do better in the bigger metropolitan centres such as Liverpool, Manchester, and Birmingham but will be crushed in the more provincial centres with an industrial and/or military background with cities such as Hull, Stoke, Portsmouth, Bournemouth and Plymouth recording some strong votes for the NO. In the major centres I mentioned I think there is a good chance that YES will correlate with class to a good extent so good YES votes in Solihull, Trafford, the Wirral and Cheshire generally but balanced with strong NO's in the less prosperous, whiter boroughs such as Walsall, Rochdale and Tameside. The exception to this might be Merseyside as a campaign associated with English Nationalism will probably not get very far there. Overall, votes will higher among more Tory inclined voters with low turnouts in places like the Welsh Valleys and the old Yorkshire/East Midlands mining belt. This was also the case in 1975. In Northern Ireland sectarianism as always will be an important factor but, also as probably in 1975, there will be enough farmers, big house unionists and liberal Alliance voters just to give YES the win narrowly. 

As a base line prediction I'll go with:
Most YES - Gibraltar (excluding that, East Dunbartonshire, in England: Oxford)
Most NO - North East Lincolnshire

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The FSB isn't exactly reflective of most small businesses.

Is it as representative of small businesses as the CBI is of larger ones?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

If Remain win Thurrock then will probably win by at least 60% nationally. That whole part of Essex is likely to be one of the most pro-leave parts of the country.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Opinion polls have consistently indicated that the North East is the most pro-remain region in England outside London, whatever that's worth (probably not all that much).  As I feel I should make a prediction now that I've posted I'll say London, the three Celtic nations/provinces, the North East and North West will vote for Remain. The South East will be 50-50 and the others will vote to leave. The East Midlands and Eastern will be the strongest leave regions.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In Northern Ireland there's a classic case of "if my enemy is for it then I am against it" sectarianism (on both sides) and the nonactivist voters/nonsectarian activists lean towards Remain because they prefer an uneasy status quo than the risky promises of the fleg wavers.

PBP as you might expect is a protest partly. You might lend your first preference to them, but you don't have to, ah, listen to them.

The funny thing is a brexit would probably be better for the Nationalists' aims than the Unionists'.

No it wouldn't as it would leave the two parts of Ireland under different trading blocs with all that that implies.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Basically both main UK parties are steaming piles of garbage rn.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The following document should be helpful for people interested in how the count will be carried out, and result declared:

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7588

Basically, the count will start once polls close at 10pm, and results will be declared (for counting areas) throughout the night.

The list of counting areas expected to complete the count before 1.30am is interesting:

Sunderland (North East): 12.30am
Wandsworth (London): 12.30am
City of London (London): 12.45am
Foyle (Northern Ireland): 12:30am
Hartlepool (North East): 1.00-1.30am
Newcastle upon Tyne (North East): 1.00am
Oldham (North West): 1.00am
Swindon (South West): 1.00am
West Tyrone (Northern Ireland): 1:00am
Belfast East (Northern Ireland):   1:15am
Belfast South (Northern Ireland): 1:15am
Belfast West (Northern Ireland): 1:15am

We'll have a good indication of how Northern Ireland has voted, and as for English local authorities, we've got a major northern city (Newcastle), a socially mixed London Borough (Wandsworth), three (ex-)industrial northern towns (Oldham, Hartlepool and Sunderland) and a 'swing' area in the south of England (Swindon).

Wrt Northern Ireland I believe those aren't declarations - just when individual constituency-based counts will be complete. For the actual declaration (just one), NI is to be declared as a single area as it was at the AV referendum. This annoys me as it means no breakdown of the results. At least that's how I understand it - if that is the case Northern Ireland will be (easily) the biggest single declaring area in the entire referendum.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

They've literally gone and changed methodology between polls. ffs.

Back to herding again, I see...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

 Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

Scotland
Most Remain: Edinburgh
Most Leave: In 1975 the only two county authorities to vote NO were the Shetland and Western Islands and Scotland was much more NO than the country as a whole - very different to now. In 2016 I suspect the NO vote will correspond to a) the Tory vote and b) Fishing communities... so I might go here for Moray, although I admit the Islands are a completely mystery to me and could go either way very strongly.

London
Most Remain: This could be several but here I'm going for more Middle Class Haringey over Islington and Hackney. I'm sort of hoping it is Southwark because lol Kate Hoey.
Most Leave: Havering. This is basically Essex anyway

North East
Most Remain: Newcastle-upon-Tyne
Most Leave: Hartlepool. I think here correlations to the UKIP should be clearer than elsewhere

Wales
I suspect REMAIN will do much better in Welsh-speaking Wales than elsewhere, where the vote will be more similar to England
Most Remain: Ceredigion
Most Leave: Denbighshire. In 1975 some of NO better areas anywhere were in the valleys but I dubious whether that will be repeat. Again, I expect low turnout in these uber-Labour areas (more so than I would expect heavy LEAVE votes, for which I see no polling evidence).

North West
Most Remain: Liverpool. This is a hunch based more on the idea that Merseyside is less nationalist inclined than elsewhere in England.
Most Leave: Ooofff... could be several. As nationalism is clearly an issue here, perhaps Barrow-in-Furness?

South East
Most Remain: Oxford. It will be either Oxford or Brighton and Hove.
Most Leave: Probably going to either in Kent or in one of those seaside towns populated with retired and cranky old Colonels... on this basis, I'd go with New Forest. This is the region where I'm least sure about how it will vote.

Yorkshire and the Humber
Remain: In 1975 North Yorkshire was the strongest area in the whole UK for YES - That was the farmers vote. How farmers will vote this time is one of the big mysteries (unpolled ffs) of this referendum, but it won't be anything as solid as last time around, but how North Yorkshire and a lot of Wales will vote is dependent on it. However, I will stay in North Yorkshire for most remain at least in Yorkshire - and I'd go with the university and railway city of York.
Leave: North Lincolnshire

South West:
Remain: Technically it will be Gibraltar, which is considered part of the South West for electoral purposes but nobody says it is part of the South West so therefore I choose Exeter. Ok it will probably be Bristol, but I'm going to pick a slightly less 'boring' option.
Leave: Torbay. For why see South East

West Midlands
Remain: I think this might be the most difficult to region to predict, but I'll go with the obvious and choose Birmingham
Leave: Could be several places, but I'll choose Walsall on the basis that iirc Walsall North is the constituency is the lowest amount of passport holders in the UK

East Midlands
Remain: Leicester
Leave: Somewhere in Lincolnshire. I'll pick the obvious one and go for Boston

East of England
Remain: Cambridge
Leave: Castle Point... Among several reasons, the LA with the lowest % anywhere in the UK for AV. Also a strong UKIP gain possibility.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

I think they're being counted individually. Highest Remain is likely to be Foyle or Belfast West (based purely on demographics) or Newry/Armagh or West Tyrone (less Catholic but more agricultural and integrated economically across the border). Highest Leave at a guess East Antrim (not especially rural but heavily Protestant and working-class/lower middle-class Protestant at that) followed by Strangford.

I have read conflicting things on this. I think they are counted individually but declared as one. Otherwise though I think you are right.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hoey is Lambeth (the Vauxhall CLP must have the patience of Job at this stage or else be composed of a set of doormats). Overall in England, I'd expect a strong correlation between the Yes to AV vote and the Remain vote.
[/quote]

Corrected on Hoey. And yes, agreed (with some local caveats).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For those interested, here's a map of the AV referendum results. It is a pretty good proxy for 'Social Liberalism' (defined somewhat nebulously on purpose) in England. Note that in England the same areas (local authorities) that were used as counting areas in 2011 will be used as counting areas this time around. That is not the case in Wales or Scotland, which are also using local authorities on Thursday but used devolved parliamentary constituencies in 2011. This makes data comparisons much less straightforward than in England.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

52.5% Remain
47.5% Leave

Turnout: ~60%

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It will be 50-50 and will go through 35 recounts

God I hope not. I'll have to sleep some time on Friday morning.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

PEOPLE NOTHING YOU WILL HEAR BEFORE 10PM GMT ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE ANY GOOD (and not much in the few hours after will be worth much either).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It strikes me if LEAVE wins and then they go the Minford Route of unilateral free trade then it we will truly have a natural experiment on our hands whether the market or states run the world.

Not an experiment one would want to leave through though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Everyone knows when they say 'the Commonwealth' they mean Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Powerhouses than those countries are.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hey! One Bright side.... Lambeth was the most REMAIN council in the whole UK. Why is Kate Hoey still at Vauxhall?

Anyway I admit I called this - like the UK GE last year - completely wrong. In both cases I underestimated the conservatism of the UK (read: English and Welsh) electorate. However, I'm enjoying the assumption that Labour now have a huge problem in places like Doncaster, Barnsley, Bolsover, Stoke-upon-Trent, Hull and so on and but the Tories - soon to be under the management of the Vote Leave campaign - aren't in trouble at all in St Albans, Guildford, Bath and Oxfordshire. In both cases neither are likely to be in much trouble but the asymmetry is interesting.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Some areas of Irish-UK relations - such as the legal status of citizens of one jurisdiction in the other - are dealt under pre-EU or extra-EU legislation such as the Ireland Act, 1949. Others, however, are dependent on EU guarantees. Many provisions of the Good Friday Agreement were written with the assumption that EU laws would apply and that both states would remain members. This means that, yes, border posts could come up again should the UK fail to get into the EEA.

The thing that worries me about the border is how worried are the Brexiteers among immigration really?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

People still relying on abstract arguments about 'sovereignty'? Amazing

And the idea that the 1975 vote was illegitimate because what later happened was not was not what was said at the time does not understand a) the concept of legitimacy and b) what was said at the time. Also pretty rich given the outright lies the Leave campaign promoted this year.

At least though you will have that yummy delicious sovereignty when close to a million Brits return home from Spain having been declared illegal by the Spanish Government. But, hey, the taste of that sovereignty... yum yum.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's from 1990, but fits well to the quality of pre-referendum "debate"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp6SwvJak2Y

The EU is a desperately boring topic for most people, and for good reason. Thus the 'debate' we had.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Going back to the results: Can someone tell me something of interest about St Albans? It gave the fourth best result for REMAIN (62.5%) anywhere in England outside London (EoL). Only Cambridge, Oxford, and Brighton did REMAIN do better. Yet it's not a University town and always considered it a well-off part of the commuter belt, the district as a whole elects two very safe Tory MPs - yet many similar places of that description voted LEAVE. So what's so special about St Albans?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This is vaguely interesting tweet storm on Brexit and the City of London by journalist Ben Judah: https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/748097437047332864

While it leaps into conspiracy theorizing in one or two moments, it's interesting as it makes clearer what exactly France and Germany would want for negotiating. Would be interested to hear thoughts, especially from ag.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I predicted that!

(Although I was horribly wrong when I thought the North East would be England's most pro-Remain region other than London).