United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[joevsimp]

I saw today that leave.EU are having themselves prompted on Twitter. Perfectly legitimate but it  feel distinctly shoddy as it (very) briefly tricked me into thinking that Stephen Fry and Prof Brian Cox supported them

[joevsimp]

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

• UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
• Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
• Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
• 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405

How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.

fantastic work! but you've a fairly obvious outlier, what on your model tips Thanet South into Remain?
I also can't see Colchester, Chelmsford and Saffron Walden voting In when the rest of Essex is so heavily out, which it will be (ditto for Norfolk North, interesting pattern of residual LibDemmage though)

[joevsimp]

Maybe it's that Sandwich is included in South Thanet? The Pfizer pharmaceuticals site was still at full strength at the last census,  so plenty of graduates and PhDs who don't necessarily live there any more now that most of the jobs there have gone, not to mention a slight skewing upward of average income and non-"white British"

Should've clocked that sooner really, I was applying for those soon-to-be-axed jobs 5 or 6 years ago

[joevsimp]

It appears that David Cameron is going to debate Nigel Farage on ITV: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499

and Leave.EU are kicking up a fuss because its not their man Gove.

Speaking of; I've just had a Leave ad come up on a mobile game, urgh, and I'm yet to see a single Remain advert anywhere.

I'm off to the pictures in a bit though, are the main cinema chains declining to show any ads for either side like they (belatedly) decided in the Scottish referendum

[joevsimp]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

If Remain win Thurrock then will probably win by at least 60% nationally. That whole part of Essex is likely to be one of the most pro-leave parts of the country.

I think it will be like that, trying to spot areas voting the opposite way that we'd expect, most of the Tory/Labour marginals like that are among Ukip's strongest areas.

[joevsimp]

Im right but damn, this is sick.. Why would anyone from the Far Right do this, its just gonna hurt the Leave campaign?

This vote is important but not enough to kill for ..

He's done the media a favour, do you remember them speculating on Al-Qaeda links to the Oslo/Utøya attack and then that Breivik must have been a muslim convert?

this is the first murder of a sitting MP since 1990: three Tory MPs (plus the other victims of the Brighton hotel bombing) and two Ulster Unionists were killed during the troubles,  other than ones killed during the world wars I can't think of any other than Spencer Percival

[joevsimp]

When was the last assisinated sittingmember of parliament in Europe?

Ian Gow in 1990 I think, at least in the UK.

Anna Lindh, a Swdish Social Democrat was killed a few days before the referendum on joining the Euro in 2003

[joevsimp]

Here's my prediction of how the regions will vote from most Remain to most leave

Northern Ireland
Scotland
London
North East
Wales
North West
South East
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West
West Midlands
East Midlands
Eastern

I'm expecting somewhat uniformity here in England  and Wales with no region apart from London, more than 53% remain and no less than 40% remain.

North East will be lower than that, but I think you're right that Wales will be in line with non-metropolitan England rather than with Scotland and NI

[joevsimp]

Just met NICK CLEGG


YEAH BOI

I saw Alan Johnson at Borough Market this morning, lots of I'M IN stickers handed out and seemed in a chipper mood.

regarding the weather, my mum lives in Havering, a London borough that will probably vote 75% leave, there was bad flooding, mostly of major road junctions. might be interesting to see whether turnout is significantly lower there

[joevsimp]

slightly late, but how closely do we think that these results will correlate with the AV referendum? I think it will be reasonably close, not many glaring outliers but not in lockstep

[joevsimp]

Looking at the results both in this referendum and the AV vote in 2011, the area around the Wash seems... quite... consistent.

I've done a bit of regression analysis, the correlation between Leave and No to AV is much closer than between Leave in 2016 and 1975.

I'll probably post it on here this weekend, some interesting trends