Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016

[Slow Learner]

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RIP Sadiq.

[136or142]

How do these results compare with the 2015 General Election results in London/Greater London?

Based on the results so far:

Labour: +0.5%
Cons: +0.1%
Green: +0.9%
LD: -3.0%
UKIP: -4.5%

In a nutshell: Stasis.

If you really wanted to, you could read into this:

- Continued collapse of the LibDems
- Fizzling of UKIP
- A tiny indication that Labour has done better at shoring up its left flank than the Tories have at shoring up their right.

Thanks! So, it's possible after all the campaigning that practically nobody voted on the basis of the candidates running for the office or based on their campaigns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, no, because turnout was drastically lower.

[ag]

Final results

2nd round

Sadiq Khan, Lab 1,310,143 votes, 56.8%
Zac Goldsmith, Con 994,614 votes, 43.2%

[DINGO Joe]

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Thank God ExtremeRepublican is actually a moderate when it comes to campaign pledges.

[Joe Republic]

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RIP Sadiq.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/katie-hopkins-confims-she-will-run-naked-through-london-after-sadiq-khans-election-as-mayor_uk_572e4a6fe4b0e6da49a65edb?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link

RIP London

[Tender Branson]

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She should run for President of Kalwejt's Paflagonia instead ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brent and Harrow:

Khan 43.4, Goldsmith 38.7

This is... concerning.

[Zanas]

Brent and Harrow:

Khan 43.4, Goldsmith 38.7

This is... concerning.

Please enlighten us.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is actually a swing to Goldsmith compared to Johnson last time and is closer than London as a whole (which is not... normal). The concern is that possibly the whole mini Modi business worked, and I dread to think what the future implications of that might be. Though we'll need to look over ward figures (when they're out).

[lilTommy]

This is actually a swing to Goldsmith compared to Johnson last time and is closer than London as a whole (which is not... normal). The concern is that possibly the whole mini Modi business worked, and I dread to think what the future implications of that might be. Though we'll need to look over ward figures (when they're out).

The link from the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/may/05/uk-election-results-tracker-2016
Has Brent & Harrow:
Labour - 45.74%
Conservative - 33.86%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those are the figures for the GLA seat. And even there we see that Shah's vote was down by 2.8pts, the largest fall for any of the suburban seats.

[Zanas]

This is actually a swing to Goldsmith compared to Johnson last time and is closer than London as a whole (which is not... normal). The concern is that possibly the whole mini Modi business worked, and I dread to think what the future implications of that might be. Though we'll need to look over ward figures (when they're out).

You partly enlightened us, but you have to assume that not all of us foreigners (not to mention bloody frogs) immediately know what Brent & Harrow is about as a neighbourhood.

Of course I could wikipedia it and find absolutely nothing on the demographics but notice that the depleted LibDem and Green vote tallies and the Respect score of 3% explain most of the shift you mentioned, but I would still be in the dark as to what's going on there, plus it's always such a pleasure to hear of these things with your words, Shibboleth!

[Serenity Now]

This is actually a swing to Goldsmith compared to Johnson last time and is closer than London as a whole (which is not... normal). The concern is that possibly the whole mini Modi business worked, and I dread to think what the future implications of that might be. Though we'll need to look over ward figures (when they're out).

You partly enlightened us, but you have to assume that not all of us foreigners (not to mention bloody frogs) immediately know what Brent & Harrow is about as a neighbourhood.

Of course I could wikipedia it and find absolutely nothing on the demographics but notice that the depleted LibDem and Green vote tallies and the Respect score of 3% explain most of the shift you mentioned, but I would still be in the dark as to what's going on there, plus it's always such a pleasure to hear of these things with your words, Shibboleth!

Both boroughs have large Hindu communities (25% of people in Harrow and 18% in Brent) and Zac Goldsmith's campaign produced campaign literature which implied support for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is a Hindu nationalist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Largest changes at ward level (postal votes not included) from last time...

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Yeah...

[Hnv1]

Sad to say but had Goldsmith not ran with his racist campaign his result would have been closer to 30% I think

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Working on a % lead map atm; as always the more stressed I am the quicker you will see a map...

[vileplume]

Working on a % lead map atm; as always the more stressed I am the quicker you will see a map...

If you are planning on doing ward or constituency maps be aware that if you just take the ward results at face value you will be significantly overstating the Labour position and understate the Tory one because the ward results do not include postal votes which skew fairly decisively Tory nearly everywhere in London. If you want to create a far more accurate map you will have to redistribute the postal votes to the wards, however you have no way of knowing for sure exactly where they came from but you can make a very good guess.

The best way to do this is to assume that the postal votes are distributed at the same rate as the same day vote. For example if 10% of the total same day Labour vote in a given borough came from a ward you would assume that 10% of Labour's total postal votes in that borough came from that ward.

Or as an equation:

Postal vote in a ward (x) = (Same day vote in a ward (x))/(total same day votes in borough (y))*(total postal votes in borough (y))

Then add this figure to the total same day vote in the ward.

It's tedious work doing it and of course it will not be perfectly accurate (all though it will almost certainly be fairly close to the true figures) but it will be far, far more accurate than ignoring postal votes altogether.

Thanks for taking the time to do it as well .

[joevsimp]

yeah, i'm working on something too and i've noticed that, Enfield looks particularly bad

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is always an interesting issue; I'm starting with a non-modified map (though lots of shades at the lower end, which should make it easy to mentally 'adjust'; using lead % rather than vote % helps here I think as you can immediately see which wards were close) mostly to get familiar with the data so to have more fun with candidate/party vote maps, but intend to do a modified one later.

[Blair]

As minor as it may be didn't Labour do poorly in Harrow in the GE? I remember there were 3/4 seats we were suppose to win in London but didn't (excluding Croydon Central, my own stomping ground)

[Hnv1]

As minor as it may be didn't Labour do poorly in Harrow in the GE? I remember there were 3/4 seats we were suppose to win in London but didn't (excluding Croydon Central, my own stomping ground)

You hail from Croydon and have a pool signature instead of a Palace one (or another London team)...Utd\pool supporters more common in London than the north

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Cranberry]

What's up with those two Labour wards in southeastern Croydon? I thought so far out south was basically already Surrey, which the wards around it seem to affirm looking at those results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's up with those two Labour wards in southeastern Croydon? I thought so far out south was basically already Surrey, which the wards around it seem to affirm looking at those results.

New Addington; big LCC overspill estate.