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Author Topic: PA-PPP: Clinton leads GOP field by 1 (Rubio) to 11 (Bush)  (Read 1957 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 28, 2015, 12:07:44 pm »

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Scott Walker ................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Ben Carson..................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 38%

...

Scott Walker ................................................... 37%
Bernie Sanders ............................................... 32%

Scott Walker ................................................... 36%
Jim Webb........................................................ 29%

Scott Walker ................................................... 38%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 30%

Scott Walker ................................................... 36%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 27%

...

Public Policy Pollingģ surveyed 799 registered voters, including 385 Democratic primary voters and 334 Republican primary voters, from May 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.5%, for the Democrats itís +/-5.0%, and for the Republicans itís +/-5.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who donít have landline telephones.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2015, 12:09:15 pm »

#SolidD
#FoolsGold
#Inevitable

Interestingly enough, Hillary is doing much better than Obama with Whites and still not better overall (against Rubio/Walker/Paul). Also, 54% have an unfavorable opinion of her. If this holds, PA should be as much of a swing state as OH, even though this poll seems to be skewed towards Republicans by about 2 points.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2015, 12:29:04 pm by TNvolunteer »Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2015, 12:18:07 pm »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Public Policy Polling on 2015-05-24

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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King
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2015, 12:31:07 pm »

The fools gold looks promising? How unexpected.
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Never Beto
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2015, 12:43:36 pm »

April 12,2011: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134324.0

PA is loyal, it won't betray the Clintons.
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Never Beto
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2015, 12:46:57 pm »

#SolidD
#FoolsGold
#Inevitable

Interestingly enough, Hillary is doing much better than Obama with Whites and still not better overall (against Rubio/Walker/Paul). Also, 54% have an unfavorable opinion of her. If this holds, PA should be as much of a swing state as OH, even though this poll seems to be skewed towards Republicans by about 2 points.

PPP's last PA 2012 poll had the margin almost correct (52-46%) but the crosstabs had Romney only winning whites 50-49%.
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Gallium
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2015, 12:57:39 pm »

April 12,2011: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134324.0

PA is loyal, it won't betray the Clintons.
That thread is an amusing reading. Fools gold, indeed.

And LOL at Bush doing as badly against Hillary as Palin was against Obama. He really can't play the electability card.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2015, 01:09:20 pm by Gallium »Logged
Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2015, 01:23:43 pm »

I may have to ironically endorse Jeb, just for the hilarious Clinton landslide in November.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2015, 01:48:18 pm »

I may have to ironically endorse Jeb, just for the hilarious Clinton landslide in November.

Are you a Republican?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2015, 03:36:10 pm »

I think the GOP has no choice but to go after PA in a serious way, especially if VA looks like it may lean a bit more Dem (Kaine or Warner as VP pick would really push it)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2015, 04:08:25 pm »

We'll see if Rubio's numbers hold up once he receives actual scrutiny as opposed to the media slobberfest he's gotten since entering the race.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2015, 04:39:41 pm »

I think the GOP has no choice but to go after PA in a serious way, especially if VA looks like it may lean a bit more Dem (Kaine or Warner as VP pick would really push it)

This. In fact, PA is the biggest reason why the Democrats have an EC advantage. If the GOP candidate won FL, PA and OH, he would win the election.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2015, 06:54:11 pm »

Obama had a +6 favorability rating in PA according to exit polls, Hillary right now is -16 so it's very likely she will do worse than Obama's 52-47 win maybe a Kerry's-sequel performance but Kerry was never as unpopular as her.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2015, 09:30:20 pm »

Obama had a +6 favorability rating in PA according to exit polls, Hillary right now is -16 so it's very likely she will do worse than Obama's 52-47 win maybe a Kerry's-sequel performance but Kerry was never as unpopular as her.

Your cherry picking facts. Obama's approval ratings were severely underwater during the 2012 campaign. PPP generally had Obama with approval ratings in between high 30s and low 40s in PA. Its very likely PPP is doing what it always does and over estimates republicans until a few months before the election where they fix themselves so they don't look stupid.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2015, 07:19:25 am »

PA is trending red and isn`t fools gold anymore in 2016

I suppose OH PA and Va by this order will fall in line how the nation goes

In 2012 it wanst much of a target by Romney and he did very well
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2015, 07:53:38 am »

Clinton only needs CO; NV and Pa, for 272 electors. Pa is solid. It still will be a close contest.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2015, 09:42:03 am »

PA is trending red and isn`t fools gold anymore in 2016

I suppose OH PA and Va by this order will fall in line how the nation goes

In 2012 it wanst much of a target by Romney and he did very well

Romney spent money going on the offensive in PA that Democrats knew wasn't serious enough to need defense. If Republicans were seriously going to contest PA, Democrats would spend exorbitant amounts on defense and deny Republicans that victory.

This fantasy where PA becomes more Republican than the nation is just that. There's only so much you can max out on the declining western part of the state. And what appeals there doesn't appeal to Democratic areas in the east.
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King
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« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2015, 09:51:20 am »

Glass is half full analysis going on in this thread. What really should be the headline is Hillary has a -16 favorable rating yet STILL leads everybody.

What is going to take to win the state? 60+% of Pennsylvanians disliking her? Do we really think that's possible? Do we honestly expect her to become more unpopular than this? Do we honestly expect Marco Rubio's favorable rating to stay positive through the GOP primaries?

The crosstabs tell an even worse story. Hillary's bad favorable rating is built on a -3% with Moderates, yet she leads Rubio with moderates by 23. How is it going to get any better than this?
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2015, 12:44:31 pm »

Glass is half full analysis going on in this thread. What really should be the headline is Hillary has a -16 favorable rating yet STILL leads everybody.

What is going to take to win the state? 60+% of Pennsylvanians disliking her? Do we really think that's possible? Do we honestly expect her to become more unpopular than this? Do we honestly expect Marco Rubio's favorable rating to stay positive through the GOP primaries?

The crosstabs tell an even worse story. Hillary's bad favorable rating is built on a -3% with Moderates, yet she leads Rubio with moderates by 23. How is it going to get any better than this?

Because while Hillary is a known quantity, many of the Pubs are not, and if a Pub wins the nomination, who acts like they would make a competent POTUS, without seeming scary and extreme, or too war mongering, there is a potential that the moderate vote will more closely resemble Hillary's favorability rating with moderates. Make sense?  The other unknown, as in all elections these days, is relative turnout levels. Will Hillary manage to get the same black turnout Obama did?  And how will the economy be doing then?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2015, 01:09:07 pm »

PA is trending red and isn`t fools gold anymore in 2016

I suppose OH PA and Va by this order will fall in line how the nation goes

In 2012 it wanst much of a target by Romney and he did very well

The only way in which PA becomes more R than the rest of America is if a raft of states that haven't voted for any Democrat since Bill Clinton make abrupt turns (returns?) to the Democratic Party.
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« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2015, 05:36:21 pm »

Just going to point out that Jeb is doing worse than Ted Cruz

Hilarious.
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