Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 22, 2020, 09:52:59 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  '00-'12 County Trend Map
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: '00-'12 County Trend Map  (Read 8178 times)
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 05, 2015, 06:21:53 pm »

For everyone's viewing enjoyment:


Logged
JonathanSwift
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2015, 06:28:25 pm »

Fascinating. Great job.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,060
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2015, 07:53:56 pm »

Wow.  So it's basically Appalachia, the majority white parts of the South, and weirdly, the outer suburbs of the Northeast going massively R while majority-minority areas go massively D and the rest of the country goes mildly D in almost uniform fashion.  Fascinating.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2015, 08:48:03 pm »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.
Logged
JonathanSwift
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2015, 09:07:30 pm »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

Interesting that Arizona has trended Republican. So much for demographic changes turning the state Democratic.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,060
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2015, 09:15:20 pm »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

Looks like Romney really did help in the NE suburbs and Florida, but it just wasn't enough.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2015, 09:18:37 pm »

AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,060
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2015, 11:42:12 pm »

AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.

That surprised me, too. FL is also baffling.

Romney NE suburban strength, but only relative to long term decline in Republican vote in the region.  It carried over to Florida retirees even more so, but was somewhat offset by Hispanic growth.

Note that this strongly suggests Republican problems in CO, NH and about half of VA are actually understated by 2008 and 2012 due to Romney and McCain being non-Southern suburbanites.  Conversely, Republicans should be pretty enthused about Ohio going the way of Missouri the next time they nominate a populist.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2015, 11:45:22 pm »

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,060
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2015, 12:01:32 am »

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.

04-12 seems to confirm a Romney suburban bounce in parts of the NE.  Of course it's overshadowed in NYC by 9/11 being compared against Sandy.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,441
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2015, 12:55:06 am »

Thanks a lot, Miles! Both maps are very useful: one more on macro, another - on microlevel))))
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2015, 01:12:42 am »

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.

04-12 seems to confirm a Romney suburban bounce in parts of the NE.  Of course it's overshadowed in NYC by 9/11 being compared against Sandy.

Yeah, interesting things in the northeast. CT changes quite a bit between the maps. Its all blue in 00-12 but about evenly split in 04-12. Maine is pretty much the opposite, especially in the north.


AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.

That surprised me, too. FL is also baffling.

Note that this strongly suggests Republican problems in CO, NH and about half of VA are actually understated by 2008 and 2012 due to Romney and McCain being non-Southern suburbanites.  

I actually think CO looks a bit better than it actually is for Democrats. Yeah its good overall, but Nader was taking 10% or more in some of the (now) strongly D counties west of Denver. I'm not sure to what extent that influences things.

I think thats also why MT and ID, even AK, look so good for Democrats.

Thanks a lot, Miles! Both maps are very useful: one more on macro, another - on microlevel))))

Cheesy
Logged
YaBoyNY
NYMillennial
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,475
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2015, 02:19:34 am »

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,060
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2015, 03:14:47 am »

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

I'd like to see what Hillary vs. pre-Akin/Duggar Huckabee would look like.  Probably insane polarization like this?




Logged
YaBoyNY
NYMillennial
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,475
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2015, 03:35:31 am »
« Edited: June 06, 2015, 03:38:21 am by NYMillennial »

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

I'd like to see what Hillary vs. pre-Akin/Duggar Huckabee would look like.  Probably insane polarization like this?






Something close to that. Huckabee would not fly in Northeastern suburbs or urban areas. Hillary would probably easily surpass Gore's margins here.
Logged
Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,028


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2015, 05:15:46 am »

The suburbs of the northeast, particularly in the triatate area have zigzagged the past few election cycles, in 2004 they swung to Bush because of fear of terrorism, in 08 to Obama because of the foreclosure crisis and in 2012 back to Romney slightly because I guess he appealed more to business types.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,270
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2015, 06:49:49 am »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

And here you have it with Atlas colors:


Why does nobody ever remember my thread? Sad
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,670
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2015, 10:55:22 am »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 
Logged
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,744
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2015, 02:07:49 pm »

Interesting that Mississippi stands out from its neighbors like that.  Of course, the larger black population has something to do with that.  Also, it became reliably Republican earlier than Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee, so it didn't have as much room to trend right.
Logged
(CT) The Free North
CTRattlesnake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,716
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2015, 03:33:47 pm »

Vermont sticks out like a sore thumb even in the Northeast.

Simply amazing.
Logged
nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,929
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2015, 04:29:10 pm »

Vermont sticks out like a sore thumb even in the Northeast.

Simply amazing.

And every county bordering Vermont trended Democratic.

Al Gore did very well with urban white Northeasterners however.
Logged
Mechaman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,809
Jamaica
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2015, 04:34:29 pm »

Anybody who is shocked by Arizona obviously hasn't met that many southwestern whites.  They are some of the most cartoonist racist people ON THE PLANET.
Logged
Joshua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,488
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2015, 05:12:20 pm »

What's going on in Idaho and Montana?

Lol @ the ability to count on one hand how many counties are trending Republican in California.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,060
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2015, 05:15:44 pm »

What's going on in Idaho and Montana?

Lol @ the ability to count on one hand how many counties are trending Republican in California.

Gore made gun control a central part of his campaign.  Obama didn't touch it until 2013.
Logged
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,744
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2015, 07:14:07 pm »

Quite an east/west contrast in North Dakota.  Probably the oil boom in the west. There's the reverse east/west difference in Montana.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC