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February 22, 2020, 10:07:53 pm
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  '00-'12 County Trend Map
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Author Topic: '00-'12 County Trend Map  (Read 8179 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #25 on: June 07, 2015, 03:43:37 am »

*cough* *uploaded late 2012* *cough*

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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2015, 04:12:25 am »


Yours was swing though, right?
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #27 on: June 07, 2015, 04:24:14 am »

Correct. Though, of course, you know, national swing of 3.5 points American style between those two elections. Tongue
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #28 on: June 07, 2015, 04:27:02 am »

Correct. Though, of course, you know, national swing of 3.5 points American style between those two elections. Tongue

Which mean that more than half or your light pink counties should probably be light blue instead. Wink

Still, I prefer your map just because of the color scale. Smiley
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #29 on: June 07, 2015, 05:51:49 am »

I saved all maps in this thread. All are useful. Thanks to all those, who made them)))
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Miles
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« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2015, 11:29:43 am »

Correct. Though, of course, you know, national swing of 3.5 points American style between those two elections. Tongue

I knew you had a already done the swing map - thats what I did the trend map.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2015, 11:45:12 am »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Only in your wildest wet dreams, pal.

And over my dead body.
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bgwah
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« Reply #32 on: June 07, 2015, 01:42:13 pm »

Interesting. The IA-MO border certainly sticks out to me.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2015, 04:08:00 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #34 on: June 07, 2015, 06:14:52 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #35 on: June 07, 2015, 07:18:45 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.  Once you count all of them, every single Republican who lives outside of the South and middle-class to upper middle-class Republicans in the South, I stand by my comment that a group of people as specific as "poor, rural, Southern Whites" is a definite minority of Republicans...

And yes, many Northern suburbs have trended Democrat, but the reasons (which have been pointed out by other posters in several other threads) are obviously more complex than our Mississippi Republican friend (who seems to desperately want politics to be this battle between simple, hard working rural folks and these cosmopolitan elites) makes them out to be.  For example, the rich Whites in Orange County who have made it GOP ground for decades aren't becoming any less Republican, Orange County is just becoming less White.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2015, 08:19:24 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.  Once you count all of them, every single Republican who lives outside of the South and middle-class to upper middle-class Republicans in the South, I stand by my comment that a group of people as specific as "poor, rural, Southern Whites" is a definite minority of Republicans...

And yes, many Northern suburbs have trended Democrat, but the reasons (which have been pointed out by other posters in several other threads) are obviously more complex than our Mississippi Republican friend (who seems to desperately want politics to be this battle between simple, hard working rural folks and these cosmopolitan elites) makes them out to be.  For example, the rich Whites in Orange County who have made it GOP ground for decades aren't becoming any less Republican, Orange County is just becoming less White.

Sure, if we count registered Republicans and registered Democrats, but we shouldn't truly count that as any indication. After all, the most registered party in West Virginia and Kentucky is the Democratic party.

Northern suburbs trending Democrat is also different from Western suburbs trending Democrat. Here in New York atleast, and probably throughout the rest of the upper I-95, it's two-fold: White suburbanites of all classes becoming repulsed from the modern Republican party over the course of 20 years, and an increase in minorities.

On the other hand, places like Orange County are trending mostly due to what you said. An increase of minorities.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2015, 02:02:46 pm »

I was just about to make such a map for New England. Bumping this for all the people who think NH has been trending Republican over the last years Roll Eyes And notice the strong Democratic trend despite the fact that Romney was a MUCH better fit for the state then George W. Bush.
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Miles
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« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2015, 02:17:00 pm »

^ Yeah, even with R-trending Rockingham/Hillsborough counties casting over half the state's votes, NH swung D at twice the national rate.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #39 on: October 06, 2015, 02:22:40 pm »

I was just about to make such a map for New England. Bumping this for all the people who think NH has been trending Republican over the last years Roll Eyes And notice the strong Democratic trend despite the fact that Romney was a MUCH better fit for the state then George W. Bush.

Yes, New Hampshire (like its neighbors) has trended significantly to the left over the years, and will likely continue to do so; but in all fairness, Nader's strong performance in northern New England obviously cut into Gore's margin and hence exaggerated these trends. Also, New Hampshire did trend slightly to the right in both 2008 and 2012.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #40 on: October 06, 2015, 02:35:47 pm »

I was just about to make such a map for New England. Bumping this for all the people who think NH has been trending Republican over the last years Roll Eyes And notice the strong Democratic trend despite the fact that Romney was a MUCH better fit for the state then George W. Bush.

I haven't seen anyone say it's "trending Republican" (very few places didn't after 2008).  That'd be stupid.

Almost as stupid as calling it a "Deep Blue State."
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The Last Northerner
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« Reply #41 on: October 06, 2015, 03:19:43 pm »

Great maps!

I see the shale boom in the North but am fascinated by the geographic inverse of the Dakotas.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #42 on: October 06, 2015, 03:31:42 pm »

I was just about to make such a map for New England. Bumping this for all the people who think NH has been trending Republican over the last years Roll Eyes And notice the strong Democratic trend despite the fact that Romney was a MUCH better fit for the state then George W. Bush.

I haven't seen anyone say it's "trending Republican" (very few places didn't after 2008).  That'd be stupid.

Almost as stupid as calling it a "Deep Blue State."
No, few places didn't swing Republican after 2008, but lots of states trended Democratic. New Hampshire just happened to trend Republican in 2008 and 2012. 2004 is really the huge setback in New Hampshire's Republican trend. In the other 3 out of the last four elections (2000, 2008, 2012), New Hampshire trended Republican.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #43 on: October 06, 2015, 03:37:30 pm »

I was just about to make such a map for New England. Bumping this for all the people who think NH has been trending Republican over the last years Roll Eyes And notice the strong Democratic trend despite the fact that Romney was a MUCH better fit for the state then George W. Bush.

I haven't seen anyone say it's "trending Republican" (very few places didn't after 2008).  That'd be stupid.

Almost as stupid as calling it a "Deep Blue State."
No, few places didn't swing Republican after 2008, but lots of states trended Democratic. New Hampshire just happened to trend Republican in 2008 and 2012. 2004 is really the huge setback in New Hampshire's Republican trend. In the other 3 out of the last four elections (2000, 2008, 2012), New Hampshire trended Republican.

Are you going to make an argument that New Hampshire is becoming more Republican?
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #44 on: October 06, 2015, 07:46:56 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.

Except that these people deliver almost no electoral votes for the GOP. If you look at the people delivering those votes, they are poor rural whites and southern suburbs (ATL, Houston, Phoenix).
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #45 on: October 06, 2015, 09:38:51 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.

Except that these people deliver almost no electoral votes for the GOP. If you look at the people delivering those votes, they are poor rural whites and southern suburbs (ATL, Houston, Phoenix).

But aren't we talking about who makes up each party?  Republicans who "deliver no electoral votes" for the GOP are still Republicans, and they still shape the primary results, especially on Super Tuesday.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #46 on: October 06, 2015, 11:02:39 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.

Except that these people deliver almost no electoral votes for the GOP. If you look at the people delivering those votes, they are poor rural whites and southern suburbs (ATL, Houston, Phoenix).

But aren't we talking about who makes up each party?  Republicans who "deliver no electoral votes" for the GOP are still Republicans, and they still shape the primary results, especially on Super Tuesday.

Sure, and we must realize that the numbers of Republicans in those regions have been waning fast and so has their influence been.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #47 on: October 07, 2015, 11:16:53 pm »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.

Except that these people deliver almost no electoral votes for the GOP. If you look at the people delivering those votes, they are poor rural whites and southern suburbs (ATL, Houston, Phoenix).

But aren't we talking about who makes up each party?  Republicans who "deliver no electoral votes" for the GOP are still Republicans, and they still shape the primary results, especially on Super Tuesday.

Sure, and we must realize that the numbers of Republicans in those regions have been waning fast and so has their influence been.

Okay, so it's waned from very influential in the '70s to not as influential today?  They still exist...
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