'00-'12 County Trend Map
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  '00-'12 County Trend Map
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Author Topic: '00-'12 County Trend Map  (Read 8729 times)
Miles
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« on: June 05, 2015, 06:21:53 PM »

For everyone's viewing enjoyment:


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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2015, 06:28:25 PM »

Fascinating. Great job.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2015, 07:53:56 PM »

Wow.  So it's basically Appalachia, the majority white parts of the South, and weirdly, the outer suburbs of the Northeast going massively R while majority-minority areas go massively D and the rest of the country goes mildly D in almost uniform fashion.  Fascinating.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2015, 08:48:03 PM »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2015, 09:07:30 PM »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

Interesting that Arizona has trended Republican. So much for demographic changes turning the state Democratic.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2015, 09:15:20 PM »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

Looks like Romney really did help in the NE suburbs and Florida, but it just wasn't enough.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2015, 09:18:37 PM »

AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2015, 11:42:12 PM »

AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.

That surprised me, too. FL is also baffling.

Romney NE suburban strength, but only relative to long term decline in Republican vote in the region.  It carried over to Florida retirees even more so, but was somewhat offset by Hispanic growth.

Note that this strongly suggests Republican problems in CO, NH and about half of VA are actually understated by 2008 and 2012 due to Romney and McCain being non-Southern suburbanites.  Conversely, Republicans should be pretty enthused about Ohio going the way of Missouri the next time they nominate a populist.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2015, 11:45:22 PM »

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2015, 12:01:32 AM »

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.

04-12 seems to confirm a Romney suburban bounce in parts of the NE.  Of course it's overshadowed in NYC by 9/11 being compared against Sandy.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2015, 12:55:06 AM »

Thanks a lot, Miles! Both maps are very useful: one more on macro, another - on microlevel))))
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2015, 01:12:42 AM »

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.

04-12 seems to confirm a Romney suburban bounce in parts of the NE.  Of course it's overshadowed in NYC by 9/11 being compared against Sandy.

Yeah, interesting things in the northeast. CT changes quite a bit between the maps. Its all blue in 00-12 but about evenly split in 04-12. Maine is pretty much the opposite, especially in the north.


AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.

That surprised me, too. FL is also baffling.

Note that this strongly suggests Republican problems in CO, NH and about half of VA are actually understated by 2008 and 2012 due to Romney and McCain being non-Southern suburbanites.  

I actually think CO looks a bit better than it actually is for Democrats. Yeah its good overall, but Nader was taking 10% or more in some of the (now) strongly D counties west of Denver. I'm not sure to what extent that influences things.

I think thats also why MT and ID, even AK, look so good for Democrats.

Thanks a lot, Miles! Both maps are very useful: one more on macro, another - on microlevel))))

Cheesy
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2015, 02:19:34 AM »

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2015, 03:14:47 AM »

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

I'd like to see what Hillary vs. pre-Akin/Duggar Huckabee would look like.  Probably insane polarization like this?




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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2015, 03:35:31 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2015, 03:38:21 AM by NYMillennial »

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

I'd like to see what Hillary vs. pre-Akin/Duggar Huckabee would look like.  Probably insane polarization like this?






Something close to that. Huckabee would not fly in Northeastern suburbs or urban areas. Hillary would probably easily surpass Gore's margins here.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2015, 05:15:46 AM »

The suburbs of the northeast, particularly in the triatate area have zigzagged the past few election cycles, in 2004 they swung to Bush because of fear of terrorism, in 08 to Obama because of the foreclosure crisis and in 2012 back to Romney slightly because I guess he appealed more to business types.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2015, 06:49:49 AM »

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

And here you have it with Atlas colors:


Why does nobody ever remember my thread? Sad
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2015, 10:55:22 AM »

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 
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TDAS04
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« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2015, 02:07:49 PM »

Interesting that Mississippi stands out from its neighbors like that.  Of course, the larger black population has something to do with that.  Also, it became reliably Republican earlier than Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee, so it didn't have as much room to trend right.
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The Free North
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2015, 03:33:47 PM »

Vermont sticks out like a sore thumb even in the Northeast.

Simply amazing.
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nclib
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« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2015, 04:29:10 PM »

Vermont sticks out like a sore thumb even in the Northeast.

Simply amazing.

And every county bordering Vermont trended Democratic.

Al Gore did very well with urban white Northeasterners however.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2015, 04:34:29 PM »

Anybody who is shocked by Arizona obviously hasn't met that many southwestern whites.  They are some of the most cartoonist racist people ON THE PLANET.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2015, 05:12:20 PM »

What's going on in Idaho and Montana?

Lol @ the ability to count on one hand how many counties are trending Republican in California.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2015, 05:15:44 PM »

What's going on in Idaho and Montana?

Lol @ the ability to count on one hand how many counties are trending Republican in California.

Gore made gun control a central part of his campaign.  Obama didn't touch it until 2013.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2015, 07:14:07 PM »

Quite an east/west contrast in North Dakota.  Probably the oil boom in the west. There's the reverse east/west difference in Montana.
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