'00-'12 County Trend Map

[Skill and Chance]

Wow.  So it's basically Appalachia, the majority white parts of the South, and weirdly, the outer suburbs of the Northeast going massively R while majority-minority areas go massively D and the rest of the country goes mildly D in almost uniform fashion.  Fascinating.

[Skill and Chance]

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:



With the exception of the western AZ/UT/WY cluster, all the Republican states are contiguous and sprawl out from Appalachia.

Looks like Romney really did help in the NE suburbs and Florida, but it just wasn't enough.

[Skill and Chance]

AZ sort of baffled me. This map skips over 2008, so its not like it was home state effected by McCain or anything.

That surprised me, too. FL is also baffling.

Romney NE suburban strength, but only relative to long term decline in Republican vote in the region.  It carried over to Florida retirees even more so, but was somewhat offset by Hispanic growth.

Note that this strongly suggests Republican problems in CO, NH and about half of VA are actually understated by 2008 and 2012 due to Romney and McCain being non-Southern suburbanites.  Conversely, Republicans should be pretty enthused about Ohio going the way of Missouri the next time they nominate a populist.

[Skill and Chance]

And holy hell, Tennessee! A sea of blue!

Gore exaggerated the trend somewhat, but the '04-'12 version of this map was pretty severe as well.

You can pretty much see the outline of the old TN-04 with those dark navy counties.

04-12 seems to confirm a Romney suburban bounce in parts of the NE.  Of course it's overshadowed in NYC by 9/11 being compared against Sandy.

[Skill and Chance]

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

I'd like to see what Hillary vs. pre-Akin/Duggar Huckabee would look like.  Probably insane polarization like this?

[Skill and Chance]

What's going on in Idaho and Montana?

Lol @ the ability to count on one hand how many counties are trending Republican in California.

Gore made gun control a central part of his campaign.  Obama didn't touch it until 2013.