A consultative referendum will be held on June 7, 2015 in Luxembourg.
The referendum, the fourth in Luxembourg history, has been called by the current government (made up by the Liberal DP, the social-democrat LSAP, and the green Déi Gréng) as part of the ongoing constitutional process launched by then-Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker (member of the Christian-Democrat CSV). The ultimate goal of the constitutional process is the rewriting of the Constitution of 1868 which has been distorted by numerous ad hoc constitutional reforms and whose terminology is quite outdated.
The new Constitution is intended to be more relevant to the current political situation and will include a new Charter of Rights and Freedoms and a clarification of the powers and the succession rules of the monarchy. The drafting of the new Constitution is planned to be concluded in 2017 when the text will be put to a bidding referendum.
The main player in the constitutional process is the Chamber of the Deputies, the unicameral legislature, which is rewriting the Constitution, since several years now, with a two-thirds majority required for any constitutional change to be include in the draft Constitution.
The two-thirds majority provision has forced the successive governments to seek a large consensus among political parties on the political reforms to be included in the draft Constitution. It also means that the process is not quick and, as written above, is intended to be terminated only in 2017, about a decade after its beginning.
In accordance with the electoral promise he made to involve the Luxembourgian citizens into the policy-making process, current Prime Minister Xavier Bettel has decided to put three (initially four) propositions to a consultative referendum. If approved, these propositions could became part of the draft Constitution.
It should be noted that, while being supported by the government, the three propositions aren't supported by a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly and could theoretically still been rejected by parliamentarians even if approved by voters.
In any case, the government has indicated that it would respected the results meaning that if the propositions are rejected there will be no attempt made to include them in the draft constitution.
Two of the three propositions (reducing the voting age to 16; voting rights for foreigners) aim to address the so-called democratic deficit faced by the Grand Duchy as a growing share of the population in Luxembourg isn't entitled to elect the deputies. The last proposition is the introduction of term-limits for ministers.
A fourth proposition, concerning the public funding of religions, was dropped after the government had reached an agreement with representatives of the religious institutions.
In detail, the three propositions are:
1. Lowering the voting age to 16“Do you approve of the idea that Luxembourg people aged between sixteen and eighteen should have the right to optionally register on electoral lists in order to participate as voters in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies, the European elections, municipal elections and referendums?”As indicated, if that passed, electoral registration and voting (currently mandatory for any Luxembourg citizen between 18 and 75) would be optional for people under 16, an exemption that have been criticized. The proposition is supported by the three members of the ruling coalition (DP, LSAP, Déi Gréng), by the far-left Déi Lénk, and by the Pirate Party.
It is opposed by the Christian-Democrat CSV and the conservative, traditionalist and senior-interest party ADR.
2. Right of foreigners to vote“Do you approve of the idea that residents without Luxembourg nationality should have the right to optionally register on electoral lists in order to participate as voters in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies, on the double condition that they have resided at least ten years in Luxembourg and that they have previously participated in European or municipal elections in Luxembourg?”Like for people under 16, if it passed, the registration and the voting would be optional for the foreign residents who meet the mentioned criteria of a ten-year residency and prior participation in a European or local election (foreigners could voted in both elections since recently). Foreign residents would also still remain unable to run for deputy.
Predictably, it has turned into the most polarizing proposition put to referendum. According to the government, the right of foreigners to vote will help to face the “democratic deficit” currently faced by Luxembourg.
Indeed, partly due to restrictive conditions for naturalization, foreign residents account for a growing share of the Luxembourg population: in 2015, they account for 46% of the total population against 26% in 1981. This is one of the highest rate in the world, only beaten by countries of the Persian Gulf.
According to latest estimates, the foreign residents already constitute a majority of the population in the three most-populated cities of the Grand Duchy: respectively 69% in Luxembourg City, 56.2% in Esch-sur-Alzette, and 54.8% in Differdange.
As a consequence, only 54.5% of the population over 18 is entitled to vote in legislative elections which poses a problem as the distribution of seats among the four electoral constituencies is determined by the residing population and not by the number of registered voters. This has led to a growing discrepancy between the population the deputies are supposed to represent in the National Assembly and the actual electorate.
Another issues with the current situation is that the electorate, when compared to the total resident population, is older and disproportionately unemployed or employed in the public sector.
According to
a study made by the STATEC, the national statistics office, the average age of Luxembourg electorate is 49.6 and 24.3% of the voters are over 65. Only 49.9% of the voters are employed, the rest being retirees (21.1%), homemakers (12.6%), or students (7.8%).
Among those employed, 51.1% are employees in the private sector, 36.3% are civil servants, the rest being either self-employed either apprentice. The same study reveals also that, among those employed, 44.3% worked in the public and parapublic sectors (public administration, education, health, social welfare).
The idea behind the proposal is thus to improve the political representation of the employed population and of private sector employees, especially construction and private service workers.
According to the same study, if the proposal passed, the number of registered voters could ultimately increase of about 105,000 (assuming that every foreign resident fulfilling the criteria registers on the electoral rolls). In this case, foreign residents would account for 27.6% of the voters and about 78% of the population over 18 (against currently 54.5%) would be therefore entitled to vote in legislative elections.
Similarly, still assuming that every foreign resident fulfilling the criteria registers on the electoral roll, the share of employed among voters would rise from 49.9% to 52.4% and the share of retirees would conversely decrease from 21.1% to 19.7%.
Among the voters who are employed, the share of private sector employees would rise from 51.1% to 59% while the share of civil servants would decrease from 36.3% to 26.8%; the share of employed voters working as international civil servant would rise from 0.6% to 2.8%. The share of employed voters working in public and parapublic sectors would fall from 44.3% to 35.3% while the share of those working in trade, transport, and HORECA (hostels, restaurants, and bars) would rise from 17.1% to 19% and the share of those working in construction sector would jump from 3.9% to 7.3%.
More generally, the share of voters working in the private sector services would rise, the share of those working in industry would slightly decrease while the share of those working in public administrations and agriculture would significantly decrease.
The foreign voters would be younger than the current voters with an average age of 46.7 against 49.6, but also less educated with 29.8% having only a primary education level against 16.8% of the current electorate.
The extension of voting rights to foreign residents would mostly favored the Portuguese nationals who would account for 42.1% of the potential new voters. They would be followed by the Italians (12.7%), the French (11.2%), the Belgians (8.2%), the German (5.6%), the nationals having the citizenship of another UE country (10.6%), and the nationals having the nationality of a non-UE country (9.4%).
The proposition of granting voting rights to foreign residents is backed by the DP, the LSAP, Déi Gréng, Déi Lénk, and the Pirate Party. It also has received the support of the Catholic Church, of the employers' organizations, and of the private sector trade-unions.
On the other side, the proposition is opposed by the CSV (but not by its young wing which actually campaigned in favor of the proposition) and by the ADR. The main public sector union has also expressed its opposition to the proposition.
The CSV has accused the government of splitting the Luxembourg citizens with an inopportune referendum and has pointed out that voting rights should remain attached to Luxembourg nationality. It has also stressed that the lack of political representation for foreign residents should be addressed by easing the naturalization process rather than by giving voting rights to foreigners.
While the conditions for naturalization have been quite relaxed these later years, notably in 2008 when dual citizenship became possible, there are considered by most political parties as still too restrictive. Tellingly, in 2012, the wife of the heir apparent to the Luxembourg throne needed the voting of a special law to acquire the Luxembourg nationality as she didn't fulfilled the legal criteria (residency time, knowledge of the Luxembourgish language) to obtain it in the normal way.
In this regard, the CSV has proposed a bill to introduce
jus soli, to reduce the residency time requirement from seven to five years, and to permit the acquiring of nationality by marriage without any residency time requirement.
The biggest barrier in the naturalization proceedings remains however the mandatory Luxembourgish language test as many foreign residents have little incentive to learn a language that is practically useless not only outside the Grand Duchy but also inside it as both German and French languages are widely spoken in Luxembourg.
