I'm making my prediction on the following basis:
Polling averages (since February - with the exception of the BES rolling survey) are as follows:
1) BES: Lab 36.03; Con 35.05; and LD 20.58
2) CommRes: Lab 40.5; Con 3.1; and LD 18.6
3) ICM: Lab 38.9; Con 32.7; and LD 21.1
4) MORI: Lab 38.1; Con 34.6; and LD 20.6
5) NOP: Lab 38.7; Con 31.7; and LD 20.2
6) Populus: Lab 39.9; Con 31.6; and LD 20.5
7) YouGov: Lab 36.4; Con 33.7; and LD 22.3
Averaging these figures, I get the following:
Labour 38.36% Conservative 33.21% and Lib Dems 20.55%
However, I'm deducting 2% from the Labour total and adding 1% each to the Conservatives and Lib Dem tally
Revised polling percentages are as follows:
Labour 36.36% Conservative 34.21% and Lib Dems 21.55%
I'm assuming a tactical voting percentage of 5%, which is as follows:
1) 1.0% Con to Lib Dem
2) 2.0% Lab to Lib Dem
3) 2.0% LD to Lab
The prediction using (
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) is as follows:
Labour 366 seats
Conservative 194 seats
Liberal Democrats 56 seats
Others 30 seats
Labour would have an overall majority of 86
The following seats would change hands:
Bexleyheath and Crayford CON gain from LAB Birmingham Yardley LIB gain from LAB
Braintree CON gain from LAB
Calder Valley CON gain from LAB
Cardiff Central LIB gain from LAB
Clwyd West CON gain from LAB
Dartford CON gain from LAB
Dorset South CON gain from LAB
Dumfries and Galloway CON gain from LAB
Dundee East NAT gain from LAB
Enfield North CON gain from LAB
Forest of Dean CON gain from LAB
Gillingham CON gain from LAB
Hammersmith and Fulham CON gain from LAB
Harwich CON gain from LAB
Hornchurch CON gain from LAB
Hove CON gain from LAB
Ilford North CON gain from LAB
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey LIB gain from LAB
Kettering CON gain from LAB
Lancaster and Wyre CON gain from LAB
Milton Keynes North East CON gain from LAB
Monmouth CON gain from LAB
Northampton South CON gain from LAB
Ochil and South Perthshire NAT gain from LAB
Oldham East and Saddleworth LIB gain from LAB
Peterborough CON gain from LAB
Redditch CON gain from LAB
Rugby and Kenilworth CON gain from LAB
Scarborough and Whitby CON gain from LAB
Selby CON gain from LAB : John Grogan
Shipley CON gain from LAB
Shrewsbury and Atcham CON gain from LAB
Taunton LIB gain from CON
Thanet South CON gain from LAB
Wellingborough CON gain from LAB
Welwyn Hatfield CON gain from LAB
Ynys Mon NAT gain from LAB
However, I anticipate that the Lib Dems will make greater gains bearing in mind their recent surge; while some Labour MPs in the above marginals may buck the trend
So, in sum, I predict a Labour victory with a majority in the region of 70 to 90
Dave
