What is hillarys number 1 democratic target?

[MissCatholic]

Wisconsin is always tough for both parties but hillary is more electable than kerry.
Michigan could be the tough one though. Pennslyvania is going conservative but with sanotum giving the republicans a bad name in the state it could be easier than michigan who have carl levin likely retiring.

[MasterJedi]

I'd have to say Wisconsin, she's not that much liked here.

[MODU]

I say PA.  It's too close to being Republican, and she'd need to strengthen the base if a PA or mid-Atlantic Republican runs against her.

[ian]

Wisconsin

[Moooooo]

Wisconsin.  The Democratic nominee in 2004 will win PA by a larger margin than 2004, IMO.

[TomC]

Pennsylvania- too many EVs to ignore.

[opebo]

The Democratic nominee in 2004 will win PA by a larger margin than 2004, IMO.

I could not agree more!  OH and PA will be moving left.

[No more McShame]

Wisconsin.  The Democratic nominee in 2004 will win PA by a larger margin than 2004, IMO.

how is that possible?

Assuming you meant the Democratic nominee in 2008, you'd really have to see who the two candidates are before saying that.  Structually, the election will favor Dems but I would say a Hillary vs Sanford race, for example, would be tough for Hillary to carry.

[opebo]

Wisconsin.  The Democratic nominee in 2004 will win PA by a larger margin than 2004, IMO.

Structually, the election will favor Dems but I would say a Hillary vs Sanford race, for example, would be tough for Hillary to carry.

Why?  Sanford is just another Southern Born Again, but without Bush's 9/11 flag-wrappings.  Hillary is considerably to the right of Kerry, and is no doubt a better candidate in terms of personality, leadership, and all that sort of nonsense.

[MODU]

Hillary is considerably to the right of Kerry, and is no doubt a better candidate in terms of personality, leadership, and all that sort of nonsense.

Her position on a line scale doesn't mean she's more likely to be elected.  Too many people hate or distrust her . . . even if she was a Conservative.   

[opebo]

Hillary is considerably to the right of Kerry, and is no doubt a better candidate in terms of personality, leadership, and all that sort of nonsense.

Her position on a line scale doesn't mean she's more likely to be elected.  Too many people hate or distrust her . . . even if she was a Conservative.   

Well, I think the people who hate or distrust her are the sort who never vote anything but Republican.  Certainly she'll get Kerry's percentage, at the very least.

[MODU]

Well, I think the people who hate or distrust her are the sort who never vote anything but Republican.  Certainly she'll get Kerry's percentage, at the very least.

Not necessarily, since some of those who voted for Kerry were more voting against Bush.  In 2008, it would be a fresh start, and the election will be based on the candidates running (one thing which I tried to address on the 100% voter turnout thread).  You have to take into account Republicans who did not vote for Bush, Democratic men who do not want a woman President, Anti-feminists, et al into the equation.

[TeePee4Prez]

The Democratic nominee in 2004 will win PA by a larger margin than 2004, IMO.

I could not agree more!  OH and PA will be moving left.

As much as I would LOVE to think that, PA is a push and OH maybe moving right.  There is no telling how much the western part PA is moving right to be offset by the eastern part's leftward gains.  As of right now we know that.  It all comes down to turnout and also the lessening of the 9/11 effect parts of Bucks County underwent.  It was the only Philadelphia area county to shift back towards Bush from 2000.  This is due to an influx from New York. 

[opebo]

Well, I think the people who hate or distrust her are the sort who never vote anything but Republican.  Certainly she'll get Kerry's percentage, at the very least.

Not necessarily, since some of those who voted for Kerry were more voting against Bush.  In 2008, it would be a fresh start, and the election will be based on the candidates running (one thing which I tried to address on the 100% voter turnout thread).

Well there is no doubt that the Republican candidate will be another Born-Again Southerner.   Not much of a fresh start.  And I think you can rely on the anti-Bush vote being anti-Born-Again Southerner.

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Sure, there may be a few of these, but they are swamped by people who voted Bush because of the 'War on Terror' gobbledegook.  We'll see if that transfers effectively to the next GOP standardbearer.

[opebo]

The Democratic nominee in 2004 will win PA by a larger margin than 2004, IMO.

I could not agree more!  OH and PA will be moving left.

As much as I would LOVE to think that, PA is a push and OH maybe moving right. 

I don't think Ohio has been moving right.  It think it has clearly been creeping, in a slow way appropriate to such a moribund state, to the left.
Democratic vote percentages in OH:
2004  -  48.71%
2000  -  46.46%
1996  -  47.38%
1992  -  40.18%
1988  -  44.15%
1984  -  40.14%
1980  -  40.91

[Joe Republic]

None of the states on that list are exactly guaranteed for her.