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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Let the hero born of woman crush the IDP with his heel, Apocrypha)
  2000: Bush vs. Bradley vs. McCain vs. Trump (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2000: Bush vs. Bradley vs. McCain vs. Trump  (Read 9576 times)
Colin
ColinW
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Posts: 11,692
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

« on: May 05, 2005, 02:14:56 pm »



Dark Blue- Trump
Light Blue - Bush
Light Red - Bradley
Dark Red - McCain

McCain's the first person to win without the three most populist states in the Union in, well quite a while, I'll have to research that.

I have a hard time seeing Trump picking up New York. He would probably do well in areas were Perot did well in 1992. I would guess that he would have a better chance of winning places like Maine or New Hampshire before New York.

Unless you believe that the corporatist elite conspired in New York to help their corporatist crony Trump win. Wink Or maybe it was those damn libertarian leaning high hats.
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Colin
ColinW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,692
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2005, 05:55:41 pm »

Bradley and Trump would probably split in New Jersey giving it to Bush or McCain.

In that case, if New Jersey went to Bush, that would give Bush 237 EV, Bradley 168 EV, McCain 133 EV, with my numbers, giving Bush a stronger case in the House.

If, in that case, New Jersey went to McCain, that would give Bush 222 EV, Bradley 168 EV, McCain 148 EV, with my numbers, still giving Bush a strong case in the House. 



It wouldn't matter anyway. Unless a good majority of moderate Republican Representatives refuse to vote for Bush in the House vote he would have a rather easy time in the House especially since McCain would still be viewed as an independent and possibly a turn coat by the party. But if McCain is able to get a large backing in the House it could be a rather long dicussion. It would also be possible that the Republicans supporting Bush and the Republicans/Democrats supporting McCain would come to some sort of compromise, maybe a McCain/Cheney or Bush/Specter presidency depending upon who is able to gain the upper hand first.
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