2000: Bush vs. Bradley vs. McCain vs. Trump

[Lincoln Republican]

Bush          359
Bradley      179
McCain           0
Trump            0

[Lincoln Republican]

Bush          359
Bradley      179
McCain           0
Trump            0

You seriously think that McCain and Trump would pull more away from Bradley, or are you just assuming a huge landslide against Bradley in the first place?

A ticket composed of Trump and Winfrey would, to put it politely, be a joke, and would not be taken seriously by the electorate. 
I don't care how many day time viewers Oprah has, or how many night time viewers Donald has, or how much
money they have between them, although they could certainly run a flashy campaign with it.  The rough and tumble
of the campaign would reveal how ill prepared either of these individuals would be to lead the country, or to assume
the leadership of the free world, or to lead the war against terrorism. 

Donald should stick to firing people on reality TV, and Oprah should stick to "healing people's souls."  The percentage of
votes received by this politically inept and ill conceived ticket would be negligible.

Bradley is too liberal to be acceptable to mainstream voters.  His selection of Dean for VP doesn't help at all in this respect.
The election for conservatives and moderates would become an issue of which candidate, Bush or McCain, could best defeat
Bradley.  As the Republican nominee, Bush would be the overwhelming favorite for these voters.  Third party or independent
candidates do not have nearly as large a base to draw from as a major party candidate does.  McCain would be hampered
by age and health issues, and his selection of Specter for VP would do nothing to assure voters.  Specter would be hampered
by these two same isues as well.   

McCain would be caught in the squeeze between Bush and Bradley, leaving very little room for him to have a major impact.

McCain is in many ways considered to be a maverick, this, combined with his selection of Specter, a liberal Senator, would have
the result, in fact, of drawing more votes away from Bradley than from Bush.

That is why I see such an election turning out this way.  Of course, the McCain/Specter ticket would draw votes away from Bush,
but would draw votes in much larger numbers away from Bradley.  This, combined with conservative and moderate voters voting
overwhelmingly for Bush, is why I see Bush as the winner with the electoral votes I have shown.           

[Lincoln Republican]

Bush          359
Bradley      179
McCain           0
Trump            0

Are you joking?

No.

Please see the post just previous to this.

[Lincoln Republican]

A ticket composed of Trump and Winfrey would, to put it politely, be a joke, and would not be taken seriously by the electorate. 
I don't care how many day time viewers Oprah has, or how many night time viewers Donald has, or how much
money they have between them, although they could certainly run a flashy campaign with it.  The rough and tumble
of the campaign would reveal how ill prepared either of these individuals would be to lead the country, or to assume
the leadership of the free world, or to lead the war against terrorism. 

Donald should stick to firing people on reality TV, and Oprah should stick to "healing people's souls."  The percentage of
votes received by this politically inept and ill conceived ticket would be negligible.

Bradley is too liberal to be acceptable to mainstream voters.  His selection of Dean for VP doesn't help at all in this respect.
The election for conservatives and moderates would become an issue of which candidate, Bush or McCain, could best defeat
Bradley.  As the Republican nominee, Bush would be the overwhelming favorite for these voters.  Third party or independent
candidates do not have nearly as large a base to draw from as a major party candidate does.  McCain would be hampered
by age and health issues, and his selection of Specter for VP would do nothing to assure voters.  Specter would be hampered
by these two same isues as well.   

McCain would be caught in the squeeze between Bush and Bradley, leaving very little room for him to have a major impact.

McCain is in many ways considered to be a maverick, this, combined with his selection of Specter, a liberal Senator, would have
the result, in fact, of drawing more votes away from Bradley than from Bush.

That is why I see such an election turning out this way.  Of course, the McCain/Specter ticket would draw votes away from Bush,
but would draw votes in much larger numbers away from Bradley.  This, combined with conservative and moderate voters voting
overwhelmingly for Bush, is why I see Bush as the winner with the electoral votes I have shown.           

This election is in 2000.  trump isn't on TV yet and the War on Terror has not begun.  I think a Trump/Winfrey ticket would get a lot of interest.

You are of course correct in your statements.  I agree in 2000, or in any election, a ticket consisting of Trump and Winfrey would indeed generate a lot interest.  However, I still do not believe that either of this duo would be considered seriously by much of the electorate as Presidential or Vice Presidential material.

[Lincoln Republican]

I would like to take another shot at this most interesting scenario.  My previous numbers and analysis were off.  After thinking more about it:

The McCain/Specter ticket draws considerable support from both the Bush/Cheney ticket and from the Bradley/Dean ticket.  Because of their wealth and celebrity status, the Trump/Winfrey ticket attracts considerable attention, and generates tremendous enthusiasm among more independent minded voters, and the "Oprah Factor" plays well in states with large African American populations.  They take signinicant numbers of votes from Bush and from Bradley, however, not enough in any one state to win any electoral votes. 

Specter is instrumental in delivering Pennsylvania to McCain, combined with the fact that Bradley lost a gret deal of African American support in Pennsylvania to the Trump/Winfrey ticket.  Independent thinking voters, combined with good support from both Republicans and Democrats in Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon, deliver those states to McCain.  Stubborn New Englanders in Maine and Vermont refuse to follow the party line, and deliver those states to McCain.  Minnesotans are no strangers to supporting free thinkers, and they cast their votes for McCain.  Arizona's neighbors, New Mexico and Nevada, back McCain with solid votes of approval, as does Colorado.  Arizona, not surprisingly, gives McCain an overwhelming victory in his home state.  McCain gained key victories in the large battleground states of Michigan and Florida, as Bradley lost significant numbers of African American votes to the Trump/Winfrey ticket, and Bush lost considerable traditionally Republican support to both the McCain and Trump tickets.    

Bush was able to gain victories in most traditionally Republican states, and wins the key battleground state of Ohio, and wins the most electoral votes of any candidate, but still far short of a majority.

Bradley was given a scare in  his home state of New Jersey, as McCain polls well in traditionally Democratic areas of the state.  As well, the "Oprah Factror" played well with New Jersey's large African American population.  New Jersey was too close to call all night, until, finally, at 2:00 in the morning, New Jersey was called for Bradley. 

Bush showed tremednous strength in the south, strength in parts of the midwest, and in the central and mountain states.  Bush's margins of victory even in some very tradionally Republican states were narrow, due to loss of votes to McCain and to Trump.  Bradley was unable to make a breakthrough in these strong Republican states, however, as McCain and Trump also ate into some traditional Democratic support in these same states.  Bradley was very strong in the northeast and on the west coast, and parts of the midwest.  However, Bradley lost significant African American support in important Democratic areas of traditionally Democratic states, especially due to the "Oprah Factor."   McCain showed strength in all parts of the country to varying degrees, with his most solid support coming from the western states, in particular his native southwest, and from the upper midwest.  Trump had pockets of support throught the country.



Bush/Cheney          222 EV 33%
Bradley/Dean          183 EV 32%
McCain/Specter       133 EV 21%
Trump/Winfrey            0 EV 14%

The ticket of John McCain and Arlen Specter was able to mount the most significant independent or third party challenge for the Presidency since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, and the ticket of Trump and Winfrey had a tremednous influence on the outcome of this election.

The election goes to the House of Representatives.  What a wild debate that will be.

Thank you Casey for creating this very thought provoking and fascinating match up.

[Lincoln Republican]

Bradley and Trump would probably split in New Jersey giving it to Bush or McCain.

In that case, if New Jersey went to Bush, that would give Bush 237 EV, Bradley 168 EV, McCain 133 EV, with my numbers, giving Bush a stronger case in the House.

If, in that case, New Jersey went to McCain, that would give Bush 222 EV, Bradley 168 EV, McCain 148 EV, with my numbers, still giving Bush a strong case in the House. 

[Lincoln Republican]

Thank you Casey for creating this very thought provoking and fascinating match up.

My main disagreement is with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. The split in the GOP vote would give those states to Bradley. Same with Florida.

Thank you Phil.

Using my numbers, with Bradley winning the additional states you believe he would, that would give Bush 222, Bradley 254, McCain 62, Trump 0.

Bush would still win the Presidency, as it would still go to the House, which was controlled by the Republicans in 2000.  Bradley would have to have won an outright majority in the election to have won the Presidency.  I can't see any of the candidates in this matchup winning an outright majority of EV in the election.