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  FL OH PA by Quinnipiac
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Author Topic: FL OH PA by Quinnipiac  (Read 3528 times)
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« on: June 17, 2015, 07:23:54 am »

FL:

Hillary/Rubio: 47/44
Hillary/Bush: 46/42
Hillary/Christie: 46/35
Hillary/Paul: 46/39
Hillary/Huckabee: 49/38
Hillary/Walker: 48/38
Hillary/Cruz: 48/37
Hilllary/Kasich: 48/35


OH:

Kasich/Hillary: 47/40
Hillary/Christie: 44/39
Hillary/Paul: 43/43
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/41
Hillary/Bush: 42/41
Hillary/Rubio: 45/42
Hillary/Walker: 44/40
Hillary/Cruz: 47/39


PA:

Rubio/Hillary: 44/43
Paul/Hillary: 45/44
Hillary/Christie: 43/41
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/39
Hillary/Bush: 45/41
Hillary/Walker: 46/41
Hillary/Cruz: 47/40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2015, 07:28:26 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 07:45:42 am by TNvolunteer »

LOL@ PA being more competitive than FL and as competitive as OH according to this poll. Still, really great numbers for Rubio.

Btw: That 43-point gender gap in PA is the largest I have ever seen in any 2016 poll.
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Stephen Curry is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2015, 07:32:29 am »

She still leads Jeb, in all of the states.😍
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mds32
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2015, 07:42:01 am »

She still leads Jeb, in all of the states.😍

The fact that she doesn't lead others in all the states gives Rubio, Paul, and Kasich more to say in terms of electability over Bush. Many who support Bush now may not support Bush once they see further into election season that he is truly not electable.

As for the polls I think PA is finally a true swing state with Western PA likely with the GOP and the philly suburbs being much more purple with no incumbent. Ohio is competitive and Florida looks accurate for now too, support is being withheld from the GOP in the polls slighty due to the competitve primary I think too. But that's normal.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2015, 07:58:31 am »

I don`t understand why they polled Kasich in FL but not in PA
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olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2015, 08:34:48 am »

She still leads Jeb, in all of the states.😍

The fact that she doesn't lead others in all the states gives Rubio, Paul, and Kasich more to say in terms of electability over Bush. Many who support Bush now may not support Bush once they see further into election season that he is truly not electable.

As for the polls I think PA is finally a true swing state with Western PA likely with the GOP and the philly suburbs being much more purple with no incumbent. Ohio is competitive and Florida looks accurate for now too, support is being withheld from the GOP in the polls slighty due to the competitve primary I think too. But that's normal.

Clinton cares about ultimately Pa; and Jeb who clearly was Gov of FL will win that too, although FL senate is a tossup.

It comes down to OH or Co and NV for 270 or 272 electors.
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2015, 08:38:22 am »

PA is defenetily in play in 2016
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2015, 08:43:34 am »

Hillary is very strong in FL.  She is as strong or stronger than Rubio and Bush in FL than she is against them in OH and PA.  Even with the home state effect and the more Republican PVI in Florida.

Personally, I have a hard time believing that the Democrats will loose PA while winning FL.  On the other hand, there have been polls showing that she's doing better in NC as well.  Maybe she's just unusually strong in the South and weak in the Midwest?  I'd be interested in seeing how she does in Virginia.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2015, 08:44:00 am »

As for the polls I think PA is finally a true swing state with Western PA likely with the GOP and the philly suburbs being much more purple with no incumbent. Ohio is competitive and Florida looks accurate for now too, support is being withheld from the GOP in the polls slighty due to the competitve primary I think too. But that's normal.

Why would the Philly suburbs be more purple with no incumbent? The Republicans are not magically more electable there simply because Obama's not in office.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2015, 08:51:41 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 08:54:21 am by OC »

QU always show Clinton doing better outside of Pa, in OH or FL. I will like to see Colo polls too because, it is the fourth battleground state.

Jeb is clearly from FL, and that can give him an edge.
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2015, 09:34:28 am »

Flashbacks to 2011...

PA is always in play, and then it's not.

The GOP should be terrified of Clinton's strength in FL. Bush or Rubio have to be on the ticket.
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2015, 09:51:26 am »

Flashbacks to 2011...

PA is always in play, and then it's not.

The GOP should be terrified of Clinton's strength in FL. Bush or Rubio have to be on the ticket.

If Hillary wins in Florida then the Republicans need to win NC, VA, OH, IA and CO, plus either PA or WI, NV, and NH.

Without Florida, the Republican's path to victory is perilously narrow.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2015, 10:01:38 am »

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2015, 10:27:34 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 10:30:06 am by eric82oslo »

Funny that Jeb is actually more popular in Ohio than in Florida, and equally popular in Florida and Pennsylvania. Tongue

Btw, they didn't poll Santorum in Pennsylvania? LOL.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2015, 10:32:35 am »

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.

Florida is one of the 3-4 states in the US changing the fastest demographically. Pennsylvania is hardly changing at all. Maybe Obama was simply a very bad fit for Florida (due to his blackness and youth and northern (academic) style), Hillary (obviously, due to her age and stature) is not.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2015, 10:38:07 am »

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.

Florida is one of the 3-4 states in the US changing the fastest demographically. Pennsylvania is hardly changing at all. Maybe Obama was simply a very bad fit for Florida (due to his blackness and youth and northern (academic) style), Hillary (obviously, due to her age and stature) is not.

The guy who won it twice was a bad fit. Right.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2015, 10:46:51 am »

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.

Florida is one of the 3-4 states in the US changing the fastest demographically. Pennsylvania is hardly changing at all. Maybe Obama was simply a very bad fit for Florida (due to his blackness and youth and northern (academic) style), Hillary (obviously, due to her age and stature) is not.

The guy who won it twice was a bad fit. Right.

He hardly did better than Gore and Kerry in Florida. That should tell you pretty much everything you need to know. Despite monumental demographic change in Florida that could only favour the Democratic candidate, Obama actually did worse than both Gore and Kerry relative to the national swings.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2015, 10:48:52 am »

PA is more competitive than Florida... I've seen everything now.

Jk, but I'm really surprised to see Rubio down in FL but up in PA.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2015, 10:49:20 am »

Sorry they polled Hillary-Kasich in PA too: 45/39
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Torie
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2015, 11:03:44 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 11:13:58 am by Torie »

Of most interest of course are the Hillary percentages, rather than the Pub percentages at this point. And it is interesting that Hillary's percentages are a tad higher in FL than PA and Ohio. Is it the Hispanic vote or something? Seeing the cross tabs, even with high margins of error, would be helpful. Oh, there are cross tabs, but not by ethnicity.  
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RFayette
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2015, 11:10:42 am »

Of most interest of course are the Hillary percentages, rather than the Pub percentages at this point. And it is interesting that Hillary's percentages are a tad higher in FL than PA and Ohio. Is it the Hispanic vote or something. Seeing the cross tabs, even with high margins of error, would be helpful. Oh, there are cross tabs, but not by ethnicity. 

Part of it is, I think, that Clinton does marginally better in the Panhandle than Obama.  At the margins, this makes a big difference.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2015, 11:40:12 am »

Solid numbers for Clinton overrall, especially in Florida, but I learned long ago not to trust Quinnipiac polls more than a few months out.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2015, 11:50:15 am »

Bottom line: both sides can find positives in these results or they can call the results junk for one reason or another, and if you can't see that, you likely are so partisan toward one side or the other that you're unreachable.
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2015, 11:57:30 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 11:59:16 am by EliteLX »

Jeb Bush generally IS NOT electable and the damn GOP needs to get off their ass and see this before they give up their chance for a recent historical 3rd time loss.

Put a Rand and Rubio on that ticket and you can win. Please, for the love of God nominate Rand or Rubio in 2016 as the ticket.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2015, 12:55:27 pm »

Bottom line: both sides can find positives in these results or they can call the results junk for one reason or another, and if you can't see that, you likely are so partisan toward one side or the other that you're unreachable.

Or you can cite all of it as too early to call. Your pick.
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