FL OH PA by Quinnipiac

[eric82oslo]

Funny that Jeb is actually more popular in Ohio than in Florida, and equally popular in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Btw, they didn't poll Santorum in Pennsylvania? LOL.

[eric82oslo]

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.

Florida is one of the 3-4 states in the US changing the fastest demographically. Pennsylvania is hardly changing at all. Maybe Obama was simply a very bad fit for Florida (due to his blackness and youth and northern (academic) style), Hillary (obviously, due to her age and stature) is not.

[eric82oslo]

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.

Florida is one of the 3-4 states in the US changing the fastest demographically. Pennsylvania is hardly changing at all. Maybe Obama was simply a very bad fit for Florida (due to his blackness and youth and northern (academic) style), Hillary (obviously, due to her age and stature) is not.

The guy who won it twice was a bad fit. Right.

He hardly did better than Gore and Kerry in Florida. That should tell you pretty much everything you need to know. Despite monumental demographic change in Florida that could only favour the Democratic candidate, Obama actually did worse than both Gore and Kerry relative to the national swings.

[eric82oslo]

A Bush/Rubio, Bush/Martinez or Bush/Sandoval match up against a Clinton/Castro ticket would be very interesting in the way that it would energize latino voters like never before. Perhaps latinos could be the new black in such a scenario, in the way that African American turnout for the first time was higher than white turnout in 2012 (although I doubt it as they start from such a low place currently).

[eric82oslo]

There are far more than four swing states. Get real. At least you should add Virginia and North Carolina as well. Probably others too, like Iowa and perhaps New Hampshire (though I feel it's drifting too far to the left in order to be a real swing state this time around, unless the GOP elects a really moderate ticket).