Venezuela National Assembly Elections, Dec. 6 2015

[ag]

Tibisay Lucena sang spoke. It is on (hopefully).

I guess, not much to explain. PSUV vs. MUD

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is there any chance of this being even remotely fair and free? If there is, what are the odds that Radonski's party makes gains or even takes over?

[Vega]

Is there any chance of this being even remotely fair and free? If there is, what are the odds that Radonski's party makes gains or even takes over?

It will be free, but it most certainly won't be fair.

[ag]

Is there any chance of this being even remotely fair and free? If there is, what are the odds that Radonski's party makes gains or even takes over?

For the opposition to win it does not have to be either fair or free. As long as the results are allowed to have any relationship with votes cast they should be winning. The country is falling apart. Polls show huge advantage for the opposition. Of course, there will be intimidation (it is going on already). Of course, the government will have every advantage imaginable. But its popularity is so low now, rigging would have to be massive to reverse it. But, of course, opposition cannot relax: they have to fight hard to overcome the regime. But this is THE chance: they have to do it.

[Skye]

Hey this thread actually exists! Good.

Well, now that the MUD candidates for the most pro-opposition districts in the country have been disqualified because some totally-not-unfair reasons, I wonder what the MUD is going to do.

[ag]

Hey this thread actually exists! Good.

Well, now that the MUD candidates for the most pro-opposition districts in the country have been disqualified because some totally-not-unfair reasons, I wonder what the MUD is going to do.

I guess, they should just nominate others. There is little that can be done - short of boycotting the polls. This, hopefully, will be an election where MUD lable is enough. The task is to make a show of strength - either win outright, or make it very obvious that the government is not merely cheating, but completely closes off electoral route by its actions. So, for the moment one has to persevere and document.

[Skye]

These are still happening. Anyone wish to discuss them?

So far, most polls have the MUD far ahead of the PSUV. I've compiled most polls on the Wiki page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_parliamentary_election,_2015#Opinion_polls

One thing to note, is that Venezuelan polls are notoriously junk. That said, however, in no other election the chavistas have been polling this badly. Maduro's approvals are like 20-something/70-something. So there's that.

[DavidB.]

And what will happen if the opposition wins? I don't know much about the specific workings of Venezuelan politics, other than the fact that the country has been hijacked by socialists who have done a great job in destroying its economy, causing rampant crime, and curbing people's freedom.

[Skye]

And what will happen if the opposition wins?

That's the big question. In theory, having a majority in the Assembly would prevent the chavistas with getting away with many things (such as appointing openly chavistas into important branches of the government), but the regime is known for doing stuff as they see fit. We'll have to see.

One thing that is sure, is that if the opposition wins comfortably, much of the chavista brand credibility will be damaged.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Basically, just like the last time oil prices crashed in the late 80's (which would end up being the catalyst for the rise of Chavez as a popular figure of discontent), the system has been very much shown up as overly dependent on black gold, and without it, the structural deficiencies in the economy are painfully obvious. The era of Chavez has closed. I'm not a huge fan of the man - although he was heaps more competent than, say, Perez and Caldera - because of his autocratic tendencies flagged up by numerous independent observers, his overly bellicose behaviour on the international scene, and his failure to fix the Dutch disease that cripples many economies set up like Venezuela's (the oil fund was entirely at the executive's discretion, which is a bad idea). Despite that, Chavez to his credit dramatically attacked poverty in the country and has definitely improved rural health and education. Much like many leaders in the third world, he must be seen in context. Not as a monster or a despot, but as a man who did some good, and a lot of bad.

The Venezuelan semi-proportional system is curiously gerrymandered, so in a neutral year it will be a struggle for MUD, but I don't doubt they'll make it. What will be interesting of course, is what they do after. The Venezuelan political system is set up so that the opposition are only really united by their loathing of Chavez and his cronies. Much like many parties where a dominant party attracts all the managerial talent and ambitions, their is a risk of MUD coming to power and ... not doing anything. Certainly they can't raise the price of oil because that's under the control of the Sauds and their mad game, and Venezuelan democracy isn't strong enough to the point they can start ripping up price controls unilaterally without risking a coup by an ambitious populist.

[Skye]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34546419

Former Zulia governor and 2006 presidential candidate Manuel Rosales, hoping to help the opposition in the elections, just arrived to Venezuela...

...to get himself arrested as soon as he stepped out of the plane.

[ag]

In an "encouraging" news, a large group od Supreme Court justices is, apparently, taking early retirement. Their terms would be over next year, but they go now, so that they can be replaced before the election. At least, it suggests the government has not, yet, decided on winning at any cost.

[Skye]

In an "encouraging" news, a large group od Supreme Court justices is, apparently, taking early retirement. Their terms would be over next year, but they go now, so that they can be replaced before the election. At least, it suggests the government has not, yet, decided on winning at any cost.

Nearly everything they've done suggest they don't plan to cancel the election.

[ag]

In an "encouraging" news, a large group od Supreme Court justices is, apparently, taking early retirement. Their terms would be over next year, but they go now, so that they can be replaced before the election. At least, it suggests the government has not, yet, decided on winning at any cost.

Nearly everything they've done suggest they don't plan to cancel the election.

Rather, it seems, they are planning to make the legislature as impotent as possible. Same as what they have done to governors.

[Skye]

Just a heads up, the campaign officially began yesterday. I think it's likely that the opposition wins.

[Crumpets]

Bumping for tomorrow.

The Economist did a good piece to bring us all up to speed:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/12/election-primer?fsrc=gp_en?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/electionprimervenezuelas2015parliamentaryelection

[Crumpets]

Polls close at 18:00 Venezuela time (5:30 ET, I think).

[Bacon King]

First results are supposed to be out in seven minutes

[ag]

At least 98 seats for MUD, apparently.

[Skye]

Yes, everything seems to indicate that the opposition won. We'll see in a little while.

[ag]

They say it is over 2/3. Latest number for the opposition is 113. Nothing official, of course.

[Bacon King]

reminder of what the opposition can do with different sized majorities: http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/134693710504/what-could-venezuelas-opposition-do-with-a

[Crumpets]

reminder of what the opposition can do with different sized majorities: http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/134693710504/what-could-venezuelas-opposition-do-with-a

So it looks like they will have a qualified majority, and maybe an absolute majority if they get lucky or a simple majority if they're unlucky?

[Bacon King]

from hashemite, watching livestream of election authority announcement

   PSUV 24 fptp + 22 lists = 46
   MUD 72 fptp + 27 lists = 99
The other are 'no adjudicable'

[Skye]

22 seats have not been called yet. God I'm so happy.