Hutchinson has now been talking about running for governor for at least a year. I'm still waiting to see whether she wants to take that chance, and it is still a big chance.
Clearly the biggest problem Hutchinson would have is not the Democrat party challenger. Rather, its the Republican, especially the pro-life establishment, which is very powerful in the state. They are firmly in the back pocket of Perry and would support him over the pro-choice Hutchinson.
Simply put, Hutchinson, in order to win, will have to pull a McCain here and rely on the support independents and Democrats, as Texas has an open primary system, where any registered voter can vote in any one primary he or she wishes to.
My guess is that she's waiting to see three things:
1. How Perry's approval ratings are and how she faces up to him in private polling.
2. Whether any halfway decent Democrat candidates enter the race as to provide a primary battle from within the Democrat party. This would draw away from potential primary supporters for Hutchinson.
3. To see if Carole Keeton Rylander decides to enter the Republican primary as well. Both are pro-choice and could therefore siphon away from each other's support. Rylander won her last election with 65% of the vote and is also a strong candidate with a very loose mouth.
The question here is which Republican candidate wins the general election, not really whether the Democrats have a fighting chance.
If she leaves the Senate, I would expect the next Senator to be Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, though I'm sure there would be some hard-fought party challengers from inside the Republican Party.
About the only Democrats who I think can break 45% statewide are probably John Sharp and maybe the newcomer Henry Cuellar, both conservative Democrats and both that here in Maryland would labeled as far-right Republicans.
