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  LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%
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Author Topic: LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%  (Read 3663 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2015, 02:24:37 am »

I realize that this race is not the same as the Kentucky gubernatorial race, but my point is that I'll believe that a Democrat can win in a southern state other than Virginia or Florida again when I see it. This year and last year, we saw that Democrats (often moderate ones) simply could not win in southern red states, even if their opponent was deeply flawed.

Edwards might be over 50% right now (if the polls are accurate), but there are still two and a half weeks left. I'm guessing Republicans will come home for Vitter, even if they won't admit to voting for him in polls. Edwards could pull off a win, but I'm highly skeptical of these numbers.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2015, 02:42:30 am »

I realize that this race is not the same as the Kentucky gubernatorial race, but my point is that I'll believe that a Democrat can win in a southern state other than Virginia or Florida again when I see it. This year and last year, we saw that Democrats (often moderate ones) simply could not win in southern red states, even if their opponent was deeply flawed.

Edwards might be over 50% right now (if the polls are accurate), but there are still two and a half weeks left. I'm guessing Republicans will come home for Vitter, even if they won't admit to voting for him in polls. Edwards could pull off a win, but I'm highly skeptical of these numbers.

La has had two Democratic Senators before and have a higher number of blacks concentrated in New Orleans. Bel Edwards has a better chance than Conway.
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
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« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2015, 01:29:27 pm »

There are, like, 100 coal miners in the state up around Shreveport, so watch out!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2015, 02:15:55 pm »

Edwards hopefully gets over 50 percent on election day, so Dems dont have to worry.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2015, 03:47:39 pm »

Edwards hopefully gets over 50 percent on election day, so Dems dont have to worry.

Uh, you do realize that this will be a runoff, and that if Edwards doesn't get over 50%, it means that he lost, right?
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Holmes
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« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2015, 03:53:38 pm »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2015, 03:55:58 pm »

We needed that in Pa, because Dems are narrowly behind Pat Toomey. Pa is starting to act more Democratic.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2015, 05:15:09 pm »

Issue 1 just means that the map has be re-gerrymandered every 4 years and places no restrictions on congressional maps.  It's a trojan horse.  PA is big, though.

Yeah, Pennsylvania is a BFD and I'm astounded by how little attention it got by the political press.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #33 on: November 04, 2015, 06:14:38 pm »

Per sources on Twitter, Jay Dardenne is supposedly about to endorse Edwards.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2015, 06:20:35 pm »

Per sources on Twitter, Jay Dardenne is supposedly about to endorse Edwards.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2015, 06:32:24 pm »

http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/11/04/john-bel-edwards-promises-major-campaign-announcement-in-governors-race/

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Maxwell
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« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2015, 06:52:43 pm »

Dardenne will get a plum position in the Edwards administration, my guess.
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Miles
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« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2015, 06:54:55 pm »

^ Its interesting because just a few days ago, he ruled out running for Baton Rouge mayor.
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Holmes
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« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2015, 06:59:29 pm »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.

Issue 1 just means that the map has be re-gerrymandered every 4 years and places no restrictions on congressional maps.  It's a trojan horse.  PA is big, though.

Yes, Issue 1 was just for state legislature districts but it did put in place limits on how much a county can be split (so no more snakes by the lake, or carving up Cleveland to hell), and there is big incentive on the commission actually agreeing on a map (i.e. coming up with a fair one). The fact that it won so decisively is giving the same group that got in on the ballot momentum to get their congressional district version on the ballot next year.
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