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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
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Author Topic: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races  (Read 8616 times)
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2015, 07:54:09 pm »

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

That's a SUSA poll, SUSA is junk in KY.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2015, 08:16:39 pm »

Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2015, 08:18:49 pm »

Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle

Tester is the weakest link? What? Donnelly is far and away the most vulnerable senator in 2018. In fact, Tester is probably the 2nd safest of the 5 Romney state senators up in 2018 (Manchin is the safest, of course) .
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Maxwell
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« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2015, 09:54:24 pm »
« Edited: June 23, 2015, 09:56:27 pm by Rep. Maxwell »

Adam Edelen's numbers are easily the most embarrassing - the guy is trailing at 33% as the Incumbent. Wow.

Though the one with the hardest hole to dig out of is Alison - she's got the least undecideds and still trails by five.

If any of these Democrats win, it's probably either Conway or Beshear. Beshear's numbers aren't as bad as the other two because he isn't an Incumbent and, from that, his numbers are probably more flexible. And to be fair to Conway, he comes the closest to actually winning something.
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Joshua
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« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2015, 10:23:12 pm »

RIP Kentucky Democrats.

RIP Kentucky.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2015, 10:40:43 pm »

Kentucky Democrats can survive. Don't abandon the party. Kentucky Democrats can win.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #31 on: June 23, 2015, 10:59:01 pm »


They will, sooner or later. Even this poll has Conway handily winning the youngest voters.

My big worry is that it'll happen too late.
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« Reply #32 on: June 23, 2015, 11:01:45 pm »

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #33 on: June 23, 2015, 11:11:57 pm »

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

The Democrats will come back in all 50 states sooner or later, thanks to the age gap - unless the current 2-party system somehow falls by the wayside, which is possible but not probable.
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136or142
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« Reply #34 on: June 23, 2015, 11:34:11 pm »

One poll 4 months before the election at the start of summer and you're already declaring the outcome?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2015, 04:35:16 am »
« Edited: June 24, 2015, 05:22:35 am by OC »

Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle

Tester is the weakest link? What? Donnelly is far and away the most vulnerable senator in 2018. In fact, Tester is probably the 2nd safest of the 5 Romney state senators up in 2018 (Manchin is the safest, of course) .

Testet isnt the second safest senators out there.  He narrowly beat Rehberg.  Mnt is gonna go heavily for GOP candidate. But, you are correct Donnelly is weak as well.

I would argue if Hilary is in WH, having McCaskill and Heikmp will be nice.😍

Obviously, this race isnt L Dem anymore, its a tossup, Bevin got a bounce from winning primary.
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« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2015, 07:45:57 am »

Welp...this shows that the Democratic Party is now fully 100% dead to southern whites....It is going to be a bloodbath in 2016....I can see a situation where the GOP win ~98% of the white southern vote
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2015, 08:20:57 am »

Ha, Ha, first poll from KY since the primary. Bevin got a bounce. Just because it is PPP doesnt mean that much.

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

I expect race to go down to wire.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2015, 08:33:57 am »

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

What ethical issues are these? If he had ethical issues, trust me, it would be all over the Kentucky media by now.

I know he's not that great. But ethical issues???
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2015, 08:34:45 am »

How on earth does Clinton impact this race?

Maybe Clinton is just so far ahead so early that it helps the Democrats overall.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2015, 08:45:51 am »

Ha, Ha, first poll from KY since the primary. Bevin got a bounce. Just because it is PPP doesnt mean that much.

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

I expect race to go down to wire.

How on earth does Clinton impact this race?

I will counter your pts one by one, give me time.

Conway, mistaking injected religion into a photo, and Aqua Buddha affected senate race.
Second counter, the above pollster said if Dems lost KY, then the DEMS are dead because we need the south.  Clinton can win Co, OH or Va, our tipping pt races, we are familiar of.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2015, 09:33:22 am »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2015-06-21

Summary: D: 35%, R: 38%, U: 21%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Maxwell
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« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2015, 10:14:34 am »

Ha, Ha, first poll from KY since the primary. Bevin got a bounce. Just because it is PPP doesnt mean that much.

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

I expect race to go down to wire.

How on earth does Clinton impact this race?

I will counter your pts one by one, give me time.

Conway, mistaking injected religion into a photo, and Aqua Buddha affected senate race.
Second counter, the above pollster said if Dems lost KY, then the DEMS are dead because we need the south.  Clinton can win Co, OH or Va, our tipping pt races, we are familiar of.

beep boop
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« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2015, 11:24:18 am »

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

Bevin being Bevin sort of counters it too.

A poll significantly after the GOP primary contention has way more validity though.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #44 on: June 24, 2015, 11:27:27 am »

A poll significantly after the GOP primary contention has way more validity though.

A 14-point swing to the GOP, despite scandal after scandal?
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« Reply #45 on: June 25, 2015, 10:38:52 am »

If the GOP sweep the row offices of Kentucky it will be amazing. The AG IMO is still their best shot with Beshar
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« Reply #46 on: June 26, 2015, 09:24:31 am »

A poll significantly after the GOP primary contention has way more validity though.

A 14-point swing to the GOP, despite scandal after scandal?

Voting for Peroutka is not a scandal.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #47 on: June 28, 2015, 03:03:20 am »

KY is a conservative state. I wouldnt be surprised if Dems lose all three.

2016, 2017 and 2018 looks promising and Dems will make up ground in.
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MT #Populist
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« Reply #48 on: July 17, 2015, 11:06:21 am »

Sabato moves the race from Toss-up to Leans Republican
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #49 on: July 17, 2015, 11:18:20 am »

Why haven't we seen any new polls on this, and what would the numbers be like after the past few weeks of Bevin gaffes and scandals?
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