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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races  (Read 8390 times)
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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Posts: 21,405
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Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« on: June 23, 2015, 03:59:37 pm »

Surprised by this. May be just a primary bounce, we'll have to see.

In any case, after adding this poll to and removing a now known SUSA outlier from my average, Conway's lead drops to 2.33%. With this being an atlas blue state, I think the following change is fair:

KY GOV: Leans D ---> Toss-Up


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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,405
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2015, 04:14:14 pm »

This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.

PPP is known for its "don't remember" subsample being disproportionately republican-leaning, but it's probably still slightly biased toward dems.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,405
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2015, 07:25:22 pm »

This poll is a complete joke: Grimes and Edelen aren't going to lose, obviously, let alone to such weak opponents.

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

#it'sjunkbecauseIdon'tliketheresults
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,405
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2015, 07:54:09 pm »

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

That's a SUSA poll, SUSA is junk in KY.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,405
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2015, 08:18:49 pm »

Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle

Tester is the weakest link? What? Donnelly is far and away the most vulnerable senator in 2018. In fact, Tester is probably the 2nd safest of the 5 Romney state senators up in 2018 (Manchin is the safest, of course) .
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,405
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2015, 12:21:47 pm »

Sabato moves the race from Toss-up to Leans Republican

I think Sabato is being too optimistic on the Republican side. I mean, seriously, the republicans are running Matt Bevin, the guy who was supposed to give McConnell this huge challenge and then lost by 25. Meanwhile, Conway was elected in a landslide to both of his terms as Attorney General.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,405
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2015, 04:32:31 pm »

Why can't all pollsters be this good?
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