Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[jaichind]

What Greece now needs is a dictatorship of the proletariat. If you're not familiar with the concept, read about it before insulting me.

In my view the Tsipras regime is the most pro-rich regime I seen so far in Greece, at least in relative terms.  All its politics seems to make sure the result is a disaster and on top of it maximize the brunt born by the non-rich.  Lets look at what took place.  The Tsipras regime came into power making all sorts of noises about soaking the rich so they are sufficiently alarmed.  Then it makes noises that it is possible to continue the bailout money but get rid of the austerity so the middle class, believing this,  continues on their financial planning as usual without making the costly changes to perhaps prepare for a Euro exit.  The rich seeing that this will not work and alarmed by possible future Tsipras regime actions to "soak them" moves their money out of the country.  Just to make sure, the Tsipras regime gives the rich a 5 month head start to move their assets.  Then at the last minute, after the rich is done getting ready, he drops the bomb.   

[ag]

What Greece now needs is a dictatorship of the proletariat. If you're not familiar with the concept, read about it before insulting me.

I am more than familiar with the concept. Why, exactly, do you want to kill so many Greek children?

[ag]

Supported SYRIZA up until the point. Supported leaving the EU. How is closing down the banks a good thing though?

It is inevitable, at this point. If the banks open, there will be a run on the bank, with everybody withdrawing every single cent they are allowed to withdraw. Banks cannot reopen until either the Greeks vote to accept the conditions, or drahma is reintroduced.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

First poll?

Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/614896548791590913

Would be funny if the people would vote to swallow their pride - with the government urging them not to.

It would be more ironic if they vote to stay in the Euro after the Eurogroup kicked them out by failing to extend the deadline a week.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Puerto Rico might default. Does that mean it will be kicked out of the Dollarzone?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Holy sh*t it might actually happen this time

[ag]

Puerto Rico might default. Does that mean it will be kicked out of the Dollarzone?

I am sure that if Greece gives up pretense of sovereignty by becoming a some other country's commonwealth, something might be thought up. Perhaps, Germans would even allow the Greeks to send a single non-voting member to the Bundestag (I would not be as optimistic if they choose the Russians instead).

Seriously though, it is not the matter of Greece being "kicked out" of the eurozone. The problem for Greece is, that, conditional on defaulting, being outside the euro is infinitely preferable to being inside. Greece really needs to devalue at this point. That is the only thing that can limit the pain of adjustment that will be happening now. And, of course, you can only devalue if you have your own currency.

[Gustaf]

It's a sad indictment of the competence of European politicians (within and outside of Greece) that THIS fcking mess is what we ended up with.

An orderly Grexit 4 years ago would have been infinitely better.

[windjammer]

It's a sad indictment of the competence of European politicians (within and outside of Greece) that THIS fcking mess is what we ended up with.

An orderly Grexit 4 years ago would have been infinitely better.

Are you sure?
The Grexit option makes me think a lot about the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers: people let Lehman Brothers make bankrupt because they believed consequences wouldn't be too bad. And the result was disastrous.

[minionofmidas]

What will they pay the printing press employees with? Scrip printed on the same press?

Heh. At least these aren't unforeseen expenses.

Seriously though, it is not the matter of Greece being "kicked out" of the eurozone. The problem for Greece is, that, conditional on defaulting, being outside the euro is infinitely preferable to being inside. Greece really needs to devalue at this point. That is the only thing that can limit the pain of adjustment that will be happening now. And, of course, you can only devalue if you have your own currency.

And the problem still is that there is no exit mechanism, still. And no comprehension of the size of their failure among the groupthinkers around Merkel, still. Greece literally cannot get out and cannot afford to stay in, right now as at every point over the past four years.

[ingemann]

It's a sad indictment of the competence of European politicians (within and outside of Greece) that THIS fcking mess is what we ended up with.

An orderly Grexit 4 years ago would have been infinitely better.

Yes for Greece, but the primary goal have never been to save the Greeks, that at best was a secondary goal. The primary goal was not to pull Portugal, Spain, Italy and France down if Greece ended up going bankrupt. Whether the Greeks succeed in pulling themselves up the same time was up to the Greeks. By now it look unlikely that a Greek bankrupcy will have much bigger effect outside Greece than a few bad days for stock exchanges. So the primary goal seem to have succeed. The Greek got a opportunity and they didn't take it, that's sad, but now it's them who are going to pay most of the price.

[Velasco]

By now it look unlikely that a Greek bankrupcy will have much bigger effect outside Greece than a few bad days for stock exchanges. So the primary goal seem to have succeed. The Greek got a opportunity and they didn't take it, that's sad, but now it's them who are going to pay most of the price.

That's gibberish. Safeguard mechanisms haven't been tested and austerity mongers feel less secure about success than they want to admit, for obvious reasons. Mariano Rajoy, for instance, states that Spaniards can be calmed because "over the past years, with their effort, have supported 'reforms' carried out". These are empty words and he's merely playing to the gallery. Actually there is a big concern in governments of countries like Spain or Italy (not to mention countries much more exposed like Cyprus). Austerity pawns like Mr Rajoy fear Grexit, and for good reasons.     

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Greece literally cannot get out and cannot afford to stay in, right now as at every point over the past four years.

"But there is no escape, not through the bars."

[jaichind]

So far Europe is containing the contagion.  Greece 5 year CDS  had a massive jump from around 430 to 2300.  Portugal 5 year CDS trading at 186 from 163, Italy 5 year CDS trading at 131 from 108, and Spain 5 year CDS trading at 108 from 87.   Portugal Italy Spain 5 year CDS trading at similar as places like Turkey, Mexico, Hungary, Brazil, and South Africa.  Not great but certainly not disastrous.  It is Greece that is disastrous.  So so far the firewall is working. 

[jaichind]

The bookie William Hill has odds of 4/11 for the vote to be "yes" and 2/1 for the vote for be "no"

[jaichind]

Looking at the overall prices of various securities as well as the trading volume, it seems the investment community is calling Tsipras's bluff.  The way the market is reacting is actually strengthening  the hands of EU.  We needs to see what takes place after Greece misses the IMF payment on Tuesday.  But if that does not lead to a market meltdown and Tsipras is running out of cards to play for the Sunday vote.  The Greek voter will see the financial chaos in Greece itself as well as relative financial calm in the rest of EU.  They will know which way they have to vote to get out of this.

[ag]

It's a sad indictment of the competence of European politicians (within and outside of Greece) that THIS fcking mess is what we ended up with.

An orderly Grexit 4 years ago would have been infinitely better.

Have to agree.

[jaichind]

Greece backtracked on a pledge to waive pensioners from limits on cash withdrawals, signaling that the strain in the country’s banks is now spreading to the very people the government wanted to protect by rejecting a bailout proposal.  An overnight decree to impose capital controls and cap withdrawals at 60 euros a day had originally exempted pension payments. The privilege was revoked about 12 hours later.

[jaichind]

Referendum Ballot paper



Note that the "no" box is above the "yes" box.

The question is:

Should the plan of agreement be accepted, which was submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund in the Euro-group of 25.06.2015 and comprises of two parts, which constitute their unified proposal? The first document is entitled 'Reforms for the completion of the current program and beyond' and the second 'Preliminary debt sustainability analysis'."

Which is confusing and filled with technical jargon that I am sure only 1% of the voters understand. 

[jaichind]

Economist Intelligence Unit estimates a 60% vote for No.

[Zanas]

So now institutes of economy have replaced pollsters, elections are determined by the prices of goods and values in the stock exchange, and it's an illness to be Greek, whose contagion must contained . This will keep getting more and more disgusting, won't it ?

[Velasco]

So far Europe is containing the contagion.  

So far. The acid test is the Grexit itself. Personally I wish that contingency can be avoided, as well we need desperately that the parts involved find a "sustainable path" for a solution etcetera. However I know that turkeys in Germany and other places are giddy with excitement, because they adore Christmas.

[ag]

So far Europe is containing the contagion.  

So far. The acid test is the Grexit itself. Personally I wish that contingency can be avoided, as well we need desperately that the parts involved find a "sustainable path" for a solution etcetera. However I know that turkeys in Germany and other places are giddy with excitement, because they adore Christmas.

Grexit has pretty much happened, I am afraid. Even if the Geeks vote "yes", it may be too late to go back where we were a week ago.

[Velasco]

No one in their right mind would want to go back a week ago. This endless vicious circle must be broken and Grexit is certainly the worst solution for everybody, right and now.

[ag]

No one in their right mind would want to go back a week ago. This endless vicious circle must be broken and Grexit is certainly the worst solution for everybody, right and now.

Well, Greek government has chosen it. And wants its choice ratified in a popular vote.