Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016  (Read 84552 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #75 on: March 10, 2016, 12:24:01 PM »


he's in!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #76 on: March 20, 2016, 08:00:04 PM »

We are officially on double-dissolution watch.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-21/malcolm-turnbull-brings-budget-forward-threatens-election/7262898
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Ebowed
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« Reply #77 on: March 20, 2016, 11:19:43 PM »

Quick, Malcolm!  Hold the election ASAP before your numbers slip even further!  The Australian people are too clever to re-elect you if you wait for much longer!
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joevsimp
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« Reply #78 on: March 21, 2016, 02:05:10 PM »


so in a double dissolution, 12 senators are elected from each state? does this not mean that the quota come down from 14.3% to 7.7%? resulting in even more microparties in the crossbench?
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Vosem
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« Reply #79 on: March 21, 2016, 02:26:20 PM »


How much of a chance does he have? I can't imagine the Gillard government is remembered fondly there.


so in a double dissolution, 12 senators are elected from each state? does this not mean that the quota come down from 14.3% to 7.7%? resulting in even more microparties in the crossbench?

God willing!
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Vega
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« Reply #80 on: March 21, 2016, 04:16:50 PM »

Hopefully Jaymes Diaz runs again!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #81 on: March 21, 2016, 05:56:57 PM »


so in a double dissolution, 12 senators are elected from each state? does this not mean that the quota come down from 14.3% to 7.7%? resulting in even more microparties in the crossbench?

Not really, there is a theory that the lower the threshold, the greater the risk of microparties, but you've also got the major parties running 12 people in each ticket, in each state, that situation means the majors will wring as many votes and seats as they can, before they go to help microparties.

Plus, the new Senate voting practices mean that people's votes will likely exhaust long-before helping elect no-name Indies or micros.
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Knives
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« Reply #82 on: April 14, 2016, 01:04:40 AM »

An election is definitely coming - Sarah Henderson the Lib in Corangamite accidentally had 1000 corflutes delivered to the ETU in Geelong.
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ag
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« Reply #83 on: April 14, 2016, 10:59:43 AM »

An election is definitely coming - Sarah Henderson the Lib in Corangamite accidentally had 1000 corflutes delivered to the ETU in Geelong.

This sounds like something about the billabong under that coolibah tree. A lost lyric, perhaps?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #84 on: April 15, 2016, 09:04:51 PM »

An election is definitely coming - Sarah Henderson the Lib in Corangamite accidentally had 1000 corflutes delivered to the ETU in Geelong.

Yup - the combination of that plus the House is only scheduled to sit for 2 of the 8 additional sitting days before the Budget session tells you the Government is locked in to the DD.

There's going to be Newspoll, Ipsos likely on Monday
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #85 on: April 16, 2016, 07:52:03 AM »

Bronnie has lost preselection...
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Knives
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« Reply #86 on: April 17, 2016, 04:16:19 AM »

I can't believe how much has changed in under 3 years - like did anyone actually believe Bill Shorten could be our next PM??? Even if Labor doesn't win, the Coalition are going to be incredibly weakened from massive losses and disunity.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #87 on: April 17, 2016, 04:30:40 AM »

I can't believe how much has changed in under 3 years - like did anyone actually believe Bill Shorten could be our next PM??? Even if Labor doesn't win, the Coalition are going to be incredibly weakened from massive losses and disunity.

Well, the ideas of PM Howard and PM Abbott were once absurd too.
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DL
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« Reply #88 on: April 17, 2016, 08:52:18 AM »

Why is Shorten so unpopular? I heard him give a speech a couple of years ago and i thought he was great.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #89 on: April 17, 2016, 01:26:13 PM »

He's very ... ALP in his background. Also he does seem to be an oddball, giving us two of the weirder Gillard era stories (the time he declared his view was "whatever the Prime Minister's is" and that time he went insane at a shop worker when he was buying a pie (lol).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #90 on: April 17, 2016, 06:52:56 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2016, 07:03:53 PM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Two polls out overnight - with two more to come.

Newspoll

Primaries
LNP: 41% (nc)
ALP: 36% (nc)
GRN: 11% (nc)

TPP
LNP: 49% (nc)
ALP: 51% (nc)

Satisfaction
Turnbull: 36% (-2)
Shorten: 31% (-1)

Dissatisfaction
Turnbull: 49% (+1)
Shorten: 52% (-1)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 47% (+1)
Shorten: 28% (+1)


Fairfax/Ipsos

Primaries
LNP: 42% (-3)
ALP: 33% (+2)
GRN: 14% (nc)

TPP
LNP: 50% (-3)
ALP: 50% (+3)

Approval
Turnbull: 51% (-4)
Shorten: 33% (nc)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 38% (+6)
Shorten: 55% (+3)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 54% (-7)
Shorten: 27% (+5)

A trend is forming, but it's interesting that Ipsos saw the strongest results for Turnbull personally and the TPP (outside of Morgan) and those personal figures seem to be holding up. They also seem to have an under-cooked ALP primary and slightly over-cooked Green primary.

Oh... I forgot there was also a ReachTel over the weekend.

(trigger warning: decimals)

Primaries
LNP: 43.5% (-3.1)
ALP: 35.8% (+1.3)
GRN: 9.8% (-0.7)

TPP
LNP: 50% (-2)
ALP: 50% (+2)

ReachTEL use ratings of very good/good-satisfactory-poor/very poor

Combined Very Good/Good
Turnbull: 25.5% (-4.1)
Shorten: 23.4% (+2.3)

Combined Very Poor/Poor
Turnbull: 36.6% (+2.5)
Shorten: 42.4% (-4.9)

ReachTEL also force people to choose a preferred PM - no, 'uncommitted' option
Turnbull: 58.4% (-1.6)
Shorten: 41.6% (+1.6)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #91 on: April 18, 2016, 12:55:21 AM »
« Edited: April 18, 2016, 12:57:27 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Now Morgan for what they're worth before a campaign

Primaries
LNP: 40.5% (-1.5)
ALP: 32% (+1)
GRN: 14% (+1)

TPP (Respondent-allocated)
LNP: 50% (-2.5)
ALP: 50% (+2.5)

(Previous election)
LNP: 49% (-2.5)
ALP: 51% (+2.5)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #92 on: April 18, 2016, 03:48:08 AM »

The ABCC legislation has been defeated in the Senate, Turnbull has his desired DD trigger.
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #93 on: April 18, 2016, 07:34:06 AM »

The Lebanese 60 minutes story is still more interesting.
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Knives
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« Reply #94 on: April 18, 2016, 09:42:41 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vt4WIGYXGg

This ad is too good.
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jaichind
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« Reply #95 on: April 18, 2016, 01:13:41 PM »

Hi.  Someone will have to explain how the Senate elections work in Australia.  It seems they are for 6 year terms with half each up every 3 years.  But it seems that every-time there is a general election for the House half the Senate is up for re-election as well.  I get this time it is a double dissolution where everyone in the Senate is up for election.  But traditionally how do they square the fact that it it not clear that every House election occurs every 3 years but the Senate term is 6 years.  I think that the way it works is that every other House election half the Senators are up for re-election.  Did I get that right ?
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Vega
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« Reply #96 on: April 18, 2016, 02:55:53 PM »

Hi.  Someone will have to explain how the Senate elections work in Australia.  It seems they are for 6 year terms with half each up every 3 years.  But it seems that every-time there is a general election for the House half the Senate is up for re-election as well.  I get this time it is a double dissolution where everyone in the Senate is up for election.  But traditionally how do they square the fact that it it not clear that every House election occurs every 3 years but the Senate term is 6 years.  I think that the way it works is that every other House election half the Senators are up for re-election.  Did I get that right ?

I imagine that if they were to get out of sync, than the Senate elections would still happen separately.
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jaichind
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« Reply #97 on: April 18, 2016, 03:39:35 PM »

Hi.  Someone will have to explain how the Senate elections work in Australia.  It seems they are for 6 year terms with half each up every 3 years.  But it seems that every-time there is a general election for the House half the Senate is up for re-election as well.  I get this time it is a double dissolution where everyone in the Senate is up for election.  But traditionally how do they square the fact that it it not clear that every House election occurs every 3 years but the Senate term is 6 years.  I think that the way it works is that every other House election half the Senators are up for re-election.  Did I get that right ?

I imagine that if they were to get out of sync, than the Senate elections would still happen separately.

Yes.  That would make sense and match how they doing things in Japan where there is an Upper House election every 3 years no matter what.  The problem is I cannot find an example of an Australian Senate election being held by itself without involving the House. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #98 on: April 18, 2016, 03:48:14 PM »

The Australian Senate's terms is one of the most bizarre institutional features in a western democracy.
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jaichind
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« Reply #99 on: April 18, 2016, 04:32:53 PM »

The new Senate voting system based on  optional preferential voting also sounds interesting but also looks to be very complex.
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