Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016  (Read 84560 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #225 on: June 16, 2016, 09:14:55 PM »

The separation between perception and reality on economic performance is stunning, but not surprising.

The SINGLE biggest error made by Rudd on economics, was promising to match Howard's promised tax cuts. It hurt revenue just before the GFC hit. I think without the GFC, it would have been easier for Labor to start the post-mining adjustment to the economy. The other issue is that since 2007, Labor basically never talks about the economy, because the conventional wisdom is that any day talking about the economy is good for the Coalition.

That's a default position for all left of centre political parties. People instinctively look to conservatives as being "good" at economics and good at balancing books, despite the evidence being across the world that the centre-left is considerably better at handling 'the economy'.

People look at the Howard/Costello era as being generally economically good. Which on most metrics, it was. But, instead of investment in infrastructure or saving or sovereign wealth, that money was pumped into unnecessary tax cuts and wasted on massive increases to middle-class welfare, with NO plan as to what to do once the mining revenues slowed down. So Labor inherited a double-whammy, the GFC hitting in the first year followed by the mining boom revenues starting to slow. So that meant Labor was left to deal with increasing expenditures from necessary stimulus measures, ongoing middle-class welfare arrangements and now unaffordable tax cuts AND reducing government revenue.

Doomed.

Also, the elements that Ebowed is talking about is important, but doesn't form part of the general discussion - people want headline figures. Basically, Labor needed a good economic run, to be able to not get bashed on economic management. The Libs were lucky and Labor were not.

The thing is on Youth Unemployment... a) the Liberals don't rely on the youth vote b) their parents are likely to think well, "jobs and growth" that'll probably come through soon enough.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #226 on: June 19, 2016, 06:38:42 PM »

My thoughts on this election so far-

-The ALP will probably be around 50% on the TPP at the end, but trail the Coalition by about 5-6 points on the primary vote (probably will end up around 35-36%). The Coalition will probably do pretty well in most of its marginals, and end up with around 80-85 seats.

-I am struggling to find seats the ALP would probably gain (does anyone have any ideas here). Their performance in Queensland and NSW seems quite weak to say the least, and while the swing overall in WA is massive, apparently the Liberals are confident of holding all their seats save perhaps Burt (the polls corroborate this). The calculus is totally complicated by NXT in SA, and I have no idea what's going on in Tasmania. Turnbull is a pretty good fit for the Victorian swingy seats, and there are whispers (?) that McEwen might be a possible Lib gain, although their candidate has gotten in a lot of hot water lately.

-There are a lot of interesting indy/minor party candidates, but I'm struggling to see any winning. Some NXT candidates probably have a best chance, but the ALP should hold all its inner city seats and the Coalition probably will be fine against Oakeshott and Windsor.

What are everyone else's thoughts?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #227 on: June 19, 2016, 09:22:20 PM »

From what I've been following, I'm guessing that NXT will get a seat from SA. I'm not sure that they'll get more than that, but I'd bet that they can get one seat. The Greens might pick up a second seat somewhere.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #228 on: June 20, 2016, 02:10:48 AM »

NXT is looking more likely to steal Mayo off of the Liberals everyday. I think the Coalition will end up with somewhere between 75-80 seats. I'll post my individual predictions closer to the actual vote.
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Knives
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« Reply #229 on: June 20, 2016, 02:36:16 AM »

I'm not feeling confident in anything atm, I could see both parties barely changing seats but then also massive swings away from govt. It's such a sh**t show.
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« Reply #230 on: June 20, 2016, 06:35:17 AM »

Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633
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morgieb
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« Reply #231 on: June 20, 2016, 08:31:54 AM »

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....
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Knives
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« Reply #232 on: June 20, 2016, 09:15:37 AM »

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?
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morgieb
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« Reply #233 on: June 20, 2016, 09:57:46 AM »

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?
No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #234 on: June 20, 2016, 10:08:43 AM »

No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.

Oh no, not again. That would be PM number what... 7 since 2007 (counting Rudd twice)?
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« Reply #235 on: June 20, 2016, 10:33:35 AM »

I'm surprised the ALP haven't capitalised on the very real fact that the LNP still can just roll its leaders at any time.
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Zanas
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« Reply #236 on: June 20, 2016, 01:34:40 PM »

My money is on British GE 2015 bis.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #237 on: June 22, 2016, 08:32:02 AM »

I will have more to say tomorrow, but generally, I think there's a lot more going on under the surface on this one than meets the eye. My call from day one was a hung Parliament, and it remains so.
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Knives
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« Reply #238 on: June 22, 2016, 09:50:05 PM »

If NSW ReachTel polling is accurate, it's too late for the Lib and I think they'll lose govt.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #239 on: June 23, 2016, 12:26:20 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2016, 12:29:02 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

If NSW ReachTel polling is accurate, it's too late for the Lib and I think they'll lose govt.

I don't think we can put too much stock into those polls, largely because they're single-electorate polls and they're union commissioned and released. Having said that...

My current prediction...

LNP: 73
ALP: 70
GRN: 2
OTH: 5 (Katter, Wilkie, McGowan, Windsor, NXT Mayo) (But I really wouldn't be shocked at the idea of Katter losing and Joyce hanging on)

Primaries
LNP: 41%
ALP: 36%
GRN: 10%
OTH: 13%

TPP
ALP: 51.1%
LNP: 48.9%
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Platypus
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« Reply #240 on: June 23, 2016, 07:20:07 AM »

I'm working on my seat by seat prediction, but basically I can't see enough seats falling for Labor to govern in it's own right, and I think a hung parliament is also unlikely unless there's a bigger swing on in QLD than I think, and/or Xenophon gets up a few candidates - both of which are possible.
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morgieb
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« Reply #241 on: June 23, 2016, 10:14:56 AM »

OK time for my much vaunted predictions. Reserve the right to update if any new shocking information comes out.

I'll do it state by state, via a pendulum order (safest Coalition seat to safest Labor one).

Tonight, it's the turn of NSW. I'll do Coalition held seats first:

Farrer: based on Albury and the areas around the Murray River, this has safe batision of conservative strength throughout history. Obvious Liberal hold.

Mitchell: along with Parramatta this is the seat where the West meets the North, but this part of the world is both very rich and very religious, like all those Southern/Midwestern suburbs in the States. Unsurprisingly, it's the safest urban Coalition seat in the country.

Bradfield: yet another North Shore Liberal batisan. Uber-safe Liberal hold.

Parkes: although this seat contains Broken Hill, this is counteracted by how rural and conservative the rest of the seat is, and in any case Labor's vote in Broken Hill is nowhere near as good as what it was in the past. Obvious National hold.

New England: now here's something to get excited about. On paper it's another safe seat in rural NSW, but this one was won by Windsor in 2001 and held very easily before he retired in 2013. Sensing that the anger towards him and Oakeshott has declined as Abbott proved to be just as much of a failure as they predicted ( Tongue ), he's making a comeback this time around. It's hard to know what kind of popularity he still holds in the electorate until the votes get counted, but it's hard to figure out why he'd bother running again if he didn't think he could win. Against that, we also don't know how much the anger has subsided, and also the Nationals incumbent in Barnaby Joyce is very strong and has enough of a maverick image that will appeal him to voters that aren't 100% rusted on National partisans. Utlimately I predict Joyce narrowly holds.

Riverina: again another safe Nationals seat in rural NSW. Yawn....

Berowra: another safe North Shore seat for the Liberals, although it's probably less rusted on than say Bradfield or Mackellar. Hard to know what impact Ruddock's retirement has on the vote, we may see a swing but nowhere near enough to endanger the seat.

Wentworth: similar to the North Shore seats, although this one is south of Sydney Harbour. However, this seat is generally more progressive than the North Shore seats, and accordingly has produced some semi-vulnerable margins in the past. Turnbull largely corrected this in the last two elections, but since becoming PM he has lost his faux-progressive image, and accordingly there's rumours of a big swing being on here. It won't be enough - but it may push the margin below 10% and make the seat interesting when there's a by-election here.

Mackellar: Bronwyn Bishop's old seat, this is another uber-safe North Shore for the Liberals. I can't see her deselection having much of a impact here, it's hard to see Labor topping 35% in the 2PP vote even if it's an open seat.

Cook: like the North Shore seats in nature, but this one is based on the Sutherland Shire (and since the latest redistribution parts of the St George area). Still a safe Liberal seat, obvs.

North Sydney: similar to Wentworth in nature, though it's a bit safer as it doesn't really encroach on Labor territory. Should be another very solid Liberal hold, though the Greens vote here might be interesting to watch.

Warringah: Tony Abbott's seat. This seat has seen a high profile Independent challenge from television presenter James Mathison, but I'm skeptical of his appeal in this kind of district, especially given he has no real political track record. As funny as what it would be to see Abbott lose, it won't happen.

Calare: an interesting one. On paper a very safe Nationals seat, but there's a retiring MP here and the area has voted Labor in the past. So we might see a large-ish swing here, but not enough to truly put the seat in danger.

Lyne: another safe Nationals seat, I can't see any Rob Oakeshott's on the horizon here.

Hume: another safe rural/exurban seat, though this one is held by the Liberals. Doesn't matter anyway.

Cowper: another interesting one. Again on paper it's a safe National seat, but 1. the seat has been fairly marginal in the past (although that was before the seat added Port Macquarie) and 2. Rob Oakeshott, who is from Port Macquarie is attempting a comeback. It's hard to see his appeal here, but he should be advantaged by the fact that the parts of the district that soured on him the most were probably outside of Port Macquarie (and therefore still in Lyne), and the rest of Cowper doesn't seem so steadfastly partisan. I feel he may have left his run a late to win the district, but it'll give the incumbent far more of a fright than what he otherwise would've expected.

Hughes: the redistribution may not have changed the margin much, but it did turn the seat from a place where Labor can win in high water marks (case in point: under the old boundaries the 2PP vote was 50.5-49.5 after 2007) to a Shire based seat that is very much secure for the Liberals barring uber-landslides.

Bennelong: now we're getting to the seats that are at least halfway vulnerable. Although the seat is based on the North Shore there's a very high migrant vote here that tends to be less conservative than the white people in this area. Still Labor's win here in 2007 was somewhat atypical of the electorate as a whole, and it's hard to see Labor getting enough of a swing to put the seat at risk. At worst, it'll be in marginal territory.

Macquarie: the first properly marginal seat. Although during the Howard years it wasn't that marginal, it has become more so in recent years, perhaps because of demographic change in the Blue Mountains (Labor picked the state seat up pretty easily in the last state election, despite Labor still losing fairly comfortably), and possibly also because of the weakness of the sitting member. So it should be close, and certainly the most recent seat poll (yeah, I know but...) said that Labor would pick it up with a large swing. I still say the Liberals hang on, though it'll be close.

Gilmore: similar case to Macquarie. Again was once upon a time safe-ish, the new sitting member is much less regarded than the old one, and she has been in the news for less than positive reasons. I think demographically it's a bit of a reach for Labor to win the seat unless they win the election, especially given it no longer has Shellharbour, but it'll be close.

Reid: was a very safe Labor seat, but redistributions has seen it morph into the old seat of Lowe, and demographic change amongst the Parramatta River has seen the shoreline area of the seat become quite Liberal-leaning. Add that Turnbull (allegedly) is doing better in urban areas and that the local MP seems to be pretty popular and moderate and I think the Liberals should hang on here despite the Labor candidate having a profile in the more conservative part of the seat (read: he is, or was the Mayor of Canada Bay).

Macarthur: was a fairly safe Liberal seat, but a redistribution has cut out the exurbs in Camden and replaced them with Labor-leaning areas north of Campbelltown. Given that the margins in both here and Werriwa are somewhat deflated due to a lack of a real campaign in the former (AFAIK) and the parachuting of Laurie Ferguson instead of a local in the latter, the fact that the state seats that make up the district had pretty solid margins for Labor in the state election, and that Labor chose (seemingly) a well-regarded local candidate, it's hard to see the Liberals holding here. If Labor can't win this seat in its current form, they may as well give up.

Robertson: the more conservative of the two Central Coast seats, but both will always be marginal territory. There's talk that internal polling here has Labor in a seat-winning position, but a sophmore surge here is likely and O'Neill seemed a pretty strong candidate for Labor that won't be there this time around. Add that Dobell is apparently not quite in the bag for Labor and the Liberals should be favoured here. I suppose the vote of Lawrie McKinna in the last election may make it tough to predict, but I don't know which way his voters leant.

Page - another rural seat held by the Nationals, but this one goes deep into hippie/New Age territory around Byron Bay. This seat was made a bit safer by the redistribution, but Saffin is recontesting which will hurt Hogan's sophmore surge. Add that Labor appear to be doing better in regional territory and I think Labor pick up this seat.

Lindsay: everyone's favourite bellweather, this has caused Labor to obsess far too much over Western Sydney and get in touch with their values, mate. Again, a sophmore surge here is likely and it'll be compounded by Bradbury not recontesting, but there's some intra-Coalition tensions stroked by Fiona Scott jettisioning support for Abbott in the spill and claims by party members that she only won because of Abbott's support that could hurt the Liberals here, and also a recent poll that had Labor up by a comfortable margin. Still think the Liberals hold, however.

Eden-Monaro: everyone's other favourite bellweather and one that has gone to whoever's won government since 1972, this seat has been made a fair bit more secure by the redistribution, but Mike Kelly is recontesting and all signs suggest that he still has a solid profile in the district. Add that Peter Hendy has been a very high-profile Turnbull backer and therefore has lost some footsoliders due to the Turnbull/Abbott stoush, and also that he hasn't worked the district all that well, and Labor should win it back.

Banks - was once a Labor seat, but some demographic change around the Georges River and redistributions moving it closer towards the St George area has made the seat more marginal. It finally flipped at the last election, and a sophmore surge and general appeal towards Turnbull in inner urban suburbs should help the Liberals here, as well as the Asian vote (which is hugely influential here) is apparently leaning the sitting MP's way. There also appeas to be less interest here than in the outer suburban/rural districts. Accordingly I think the Liberals hold.
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morgieb
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« Reply #242 on: June 23, 2016, 10:16:15 AM »

I'll do the rest of NSW and possibly Victoria later today (i.e. when I actually wake up). CBF doing this sort of thing at 1:30 in the morning.
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« Reply #243 on: June 23, 2016, 12:29:38 PM »

Reading with great interest, morgieb!
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morgieb
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« Reply #244 on: June 25, 2016, 12:11:43 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 06:06:52 AM by morgieb »

Cheers, Vosem.

Didn't do any yesterday due to the Brexit amongst other things. I'll only put up the rest of NSW today cos I've got work later tonight. I'll do Victoria and maybe Queensland tomorrow.

Anyway, it's hard to tell the impact that the Brexit has on the election - it could well have none, but it may also be Turnbull's Tampa. Will wait and see. We probably won't know until Monday at the earliest.

Dobell - was won by the Liberals at the last election, but only by a narrow margin and despite all the controversy around Craig Thomson. You'd expect the seat to be won by Labor especially after the redistribution has made it a notional Labor seat, but the polling hasn't been so great for Labor here. It's also the sort of district that has given strong sophmore surges. I'll still predict a Labor hold/gain, though I could easily see a seat like this giving Labor a lot of strife on election night.

Paterson - was a safe-ish Liberal seat, but a redistribution has replaced Liberal-leaning areas on the northern side of Port Stephens with Labor-leaning areas around Maitland and Kurri Kurri. Accordingly this seat is now notionally Labor held and the sitting MP has seen the writing on the wall and retired. A straightforward Labor gain now, and this seat will probably not be of much interest in future elections.

Parramatta - generally is close but Labor usually have a slight edge here. It should hold given a swing back towards them but there's a bit of talk of it being in play and with better candidate selection/luck it may well have flipped in the past. Still say Labor hold although I can't help but feel long-term this seat will trend Liberal.

Richmond - the Vermont of Australia. OK not quite but it was once a very safe Nationals seat but since the hippies moved to Byron Bay and the population in Tweed exploded it has become a lot more marginal and now left-leaning. There's talk that the Greens are doing very well here, but the swing required to see them overtake Labor is pretty high and therefore Labor should be secure enough. Might become vulnerable if the seat were to be open for some reason though, however.

Kingsford Smith - was once a very safe Labor seat, but demographic change has eroded Labor's margin here somewhat. Won't flip this election but long-term will probably turn blue.

Greenway - interesting. Is Labor held by a reasonably comfortable margin but there was the Jaymes Diaz factor - after 2010 this was horrificly marginal. This time the Liberals have a stronger candidate and any personal vote for Rowland is already built in. I'll stick with a Labor hold as the climate won't allow a big enough swing for it to flip, but I think there'll be a swing against Labor here.

Barton - it was already hard enough for the Liberals to hold under the old boundaries. The new ones make this an easy Labor pickup, and the seat will be a very safe one from now on.

McMahon - seat-wise this was pretty iffy before the last election, but Bowen hung on with a reasonably comfortable margin. Traditionally this seat is pretty safe so there won't be much threat barring a 2013-like situation happening again.

Hunter - a safe Labor seat in the eponymous region. There are factors that might make it interesting - it's more regional than Newcastle and Shortland so there could be a trend in the future against Labor, but only in really bad elections does this area look vunerable. In any case, the Liberals aren't faring too well in the Hunter anyway.

Werriwa - ought to be secure, but there is a bit of talk that the Liberals are pumping resources into this seat. I have my doubts but the Liberal candidate here is quite well-regarded in the seat and popular.....

Whitlam - a safe Labor seat in the Illawarra that is even safer in practice as there's a lot of conservative areas that will always get outweighed by Wollongong.

Shortland - another safe Labor seat in the Hunter.

Watson - this seat was once competitive once upon a time, but boundary and demographic changes had make this look secure. Would expect a fairly big swing towards Labor given how safe it was pre-2010, too.

Newcastle - another safe Labor seat in the Hunter. It has occassionally been semi-marginal, but it's unlikely to ever be in serious danger.

Chifley - what Western Sydney actually is rather than Lindsay. Safe Labor hold, obvously.

Blaxland - another safe Labor seat in the battler heartland of Western Sydney.....

Cunningham - this is also (shock horror) a safe Labor seat in a mid-sized industrial city, except this time it's in Woolongong rather than Newcastle. The Greens poll OK here, but their 2002 by-election win was a bit of a fluke and in general they don't poll well enough to overtake the Liberals let alone put Labor in danger.

Fowler - another very safe Labor seat, despite the redistribution taking out large parts of Liverpool....

Sydney - on paper this could be at threat to the Greens but 1. the Liberal vote here is stronger than in say Grayndler and Batman and 2. they won't get Liberal preferences anyway. It might become interesting if Plibersek was to retire as there is some serious demographic change going on here, but realistically she has the seat for as long as she wants it.

Grayndler - a far bigger threat for Labor than Sydney, despite it looking safe on paper, especially given the Liberal vote here is smaller. Were the Greens getting Liberal preferences Albanese might be in trouble (though I'd still back him to survive), but as it is he's popular enough that he'll be fine. Once he retires though...even Liberal preferences may not be enough to save Labor.

So 3 gains to Labor in NSW - Page, Eden-Monaro and Macarthur. Several seats to watch here, though election-wise it might not be quite as interesting as Queensland.



As for the Senate, I'll predict 5 Coalition, 5 Labor, 1 Greens and 1 LDP. Coalition should get 5 quotas, Labor 4 and the Greens 1 straight off the bat. The Greens could easily pick up two, but their vote in NSW has never been great so I think the 5th Labor stays narrowly ahead of the second Green. Leyonhjelm probably has the edge for the last seat over other minor-right candidates, as they appear to be getting both Labor and Liberal preferences, and I think Leyonhjelm has more of a profile than other assorted minor right-wing candidates due to the fact that he's a Senator. Hard to know what kind of impact libertarianism has in NSW, though.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #245 on: June 26, 2016, 06:01:00 AM »

Grayndler? Also isn't losing it.
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morgieb
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« Reply #246 on: June 26, 2016, 06:05:27 AM »


lol typo, meant Macarthur. Especially given it reads as Labor is gaining it - how can they gain a seat already own?
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morgieb
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« Reply #247 on: June 26, 2016, 07:02:50 AM »

Anyway, Victoria Coalition seats:

Mallee - the safest Coalition seat in the country. Obvious Nationals hold.

Murray - also an extremely safe Coalition seat, but this one is open and as it's in the bush we have a three-cornered contest on our hands. For this reason it's tough to gague - on the one hand the Nationals picked a stronger candidate IMO and at the state level the area generally elects National MP's, but on the other hand Labor are directing preferences towards the Liberal and the outgoing MP is a Liberal. Whether Labor can direct preferences that easily though is another question - IIRC Labor directed preferences towards the Liberal rather than the National in Mallee at the last election but preferences ran about 50/50 for both parties, and also you'd imagine in a rural seat there'll be a lot of very small booths without proper HTV staff. Will tentatively predict a Liberal hold, because I'm generally conservative with my predictions and the Nationals hasn't had a lot of luck with picking up ex-Liberal seats in the past. In the end though this doesn't matter as both parties go into a Coalition anyway.

Gippsland - another very safe regional Coalition seat, this one held by the Nationals. There are some Labor-leaning areas in the Latrobe Valley in this seat where Labor have underachieved in the last 10-15 years IMO, but they don't have anywhere enough influence here to flip the seat.

Menzies - the safest Coalition seat in Melbourne. Although Kevin Andrews has a high-profile challenge in Stephen Mayne, he has generally struggled to gain traction in his previous runs for electoral office and he'd be lucky to gain 10% of the vote.

McMillan - was once Labor-leaning, but the moving of Traralgon and Morwell to Gippsland and the decline of Labor support in the Latrobe Valley has hurt hard here. Like Gippsland an area like this voting relatively atypically for the demographics could lead to an above average swing here, but it 1. won't be enough to flip the seat and 2. will probably be counteracted by the CFA issue anyway.

Flinders - like most of the Victorian Liberal seats they generally aren't held by overwhelming margins compared to say NSW, but they are still safe.

Kooyong - ground zero for blue ribbon-values. Safe Liberal hold then, obviously.

Goldstein - another safe Liberal seat in Melbourne, though this one has a retiring MP. Shouldn't matter anyway, Labor will be lucky to even push this towards marginal territory.

Wannon - another pretty safe Liberal seat, though unlike the previous two this one is in regional territory so behaves more like Indi and Gippsland for example. Doesn't really matter for the purpose of this analysis though....

Higgins - on paper looks safe, but the seat also overlaps with Prahran which was famously won by the Greens after the last election and also has a high-profile Greens candidate. I'm skeptical of an upset happening here though as O'Dwyer won with a majority of the primary vote and probably needs to be taken down to ~45% to be in danger of losing the seat. So while there's room for a swing here, there's too many rusted on Liberal voters to see the seat flip...especially given I see (like most of Melbourne) Turnbull having more appeal than Abbott.

Aston - has been marginal in the past, but even in the high water mark of 2010 (in Victoria anyway) it failed to flip despite a retiring MP. Should be reasonably secure, then.

Casey - another reasonably safe Liberal seat in Melbourne, though there's some some strong Labor/Greens booths in the hinterland here. They aren't enough to fundamentally change the nature of the seat, however.

Dunkley - now we get to the marginal seats. On paper it's not quite on the first list of marginals likely to flip and Labor hasn't won here since 1993 when the boundaries were quite a bit more favourable. However the long-term sitting MP is retiring and therefore we could see an above-average swing here. The seat was apparently very close at the start of the campaign but has started to solidify for the Liberals. Will still be close, but I'll tip a Liberal hold. Probably one of those seats which goes to whoever wins government.

La Trobe - an odd seat based on outer Melbourne exurbia and Blue Mountains-esque treechanger communes. Usually the seat is Coalition-leaning, but Labor still picked it up in 2010. Still that election was very good for Labor in Victoria, so it's hard to see it swinging back given that I suspect the Liberals will (relatively) perform better in Victoria than what they have in the past unless Labor wins government. The CFA issue can't be helping either given there's a lot of bushland here as well...

Corangamite - the Victorian Richmond, though unlike Richmond the seat is still overall Coalition-leaning, in the sense that it was once safe Coalition but has flipped due to growth in a mid-sized city (Geelong/Gold Coast) and seachangers in the rural areas. A sophmore surge can be expected for Henderson here, and again the CFA issue will bite here. Should be a Liberal hold, then.

Deakin - the most marginal Liberal seat. Generally very homogenous and can be considered a bellweather seat. Given that I suspect the Liberals hold onto government, the presence of a sophmore surge here, and that Turnbull should have more appeal to Melburnians than Abbott ever did, the Liberals should hang on here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #248 on: June 26, 2016, 07:19:46 AM »

I keep thinking the CFA thing is more of a 'beltway' fascination... I don't see this being a decisive issues one way or another.
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morgieb
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« Reply #249 on: June 26, 2016, 07:43:01 AM »

I keep thinking the CFA thing is more of a 'beltway' fascination... I don't see this being a decisive issues one way or another.
Yeah that's a fair call, but it might still swing 1-2% of the vote in key marginal electorates. I think most of these seats would probably stay Liberal anyway so yeah the effect probably isn't all that strong.
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