Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[morgieb]

McEwen - interesting one. The 2011 redistribution moved this to safe-ish territory on paper, but a big swing at the last election corrected this. It's hard to see the Liberals winning a seat they don't already have barring unusual circumstances, but the Liberals were apparently the favourites with the bookies before about April....then there's also the CFA issue. Whether that has a serious effect is another question altogether. In any case, it's also cancelled out by the fact that the Liberal candidate has been mired in a sh**t load of controversy. Labor should hold, though the story may be different with a better Liberal candidate.

Bendigo - although it is marginal, if the Liberals couldn't win this with an open seat in a climate like 2013, they likely never will. There's talk about this being one of the CFA seats, but I doubt that it will see the seat flip.

Chisholm - more interesting here. Was generally a Liberal-leaning marginal before 1998, when the then sitting MP Michael Woolridge defected to a safer seat and Labor promptly won it. Since then they've generally held it down to Anna Burke's strong personal vote, but now she is retiring. And the area still often votes Liberal at the state level. Were there not a large swing expected to Labor I'd call it a Liberal gain. Ultimately I'll play it safe and call it a Labor hold, but this along with Greenway and maybe Dobell has to be one of the Liberal's best chances of gaining a seat off Labor.

Bruce - a similar story to Chisholm on paper, being it a marginal-ish seat having a retiring MP. The Liberal candidate here is also a bit more high-profile than in Chisholm. There are however key differences. Firstly, the style of seat is different. While Chisholm is much like Deakin in that it is very homogenous swinging territory (except for the Oakleigh pocket), Bruce combines reasonably solid Liberal territory around Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill with very good Labor booths around Dandenong. For matter it is a bit safer than Chisholm usually. Secondly, I have doubts that Griffin has as much personal popularity as Burke did. Accordingly I think Labor have an easier time here than in Chisholm, although both seats will be tight.

Jagajaga - ought to be secure. There was some talk that this seat might be in danger, but that might have to wait until Macklin retires.

Melbourne Ports - this is interesting. On paper Danby looks reasonably secure, especially once you take into account that Melbourne Ports tends to be pretty inelastic. But his hyperventilating over the Greens could easily see his support on the left erode...and while I think he'll have enough support around Caufield to survive, if he were to finish 3rd on the primary vote I think the Liberals might cause an upset. Once he retires I'm pretty sure Labor lose the seat, whether it'll be to the Greens or the Liberals is another question.

Isaacs - looks pretty secure in my eyes, although the Skyrail issue may be pissing off some punters on the bayside. It's a seat that could be more marginal with boundary changes, the core of the seat tends to be pretty swingy but is counteracted by the Dandenong booths.

Ballarat - should be pretty secure. Was once Liberal-leaning about 20 years ago, but since the 1999 state election the Ballarat (and Bendigo) areas have been far more Labor-leaning.

Hotham - should be safe, especially with the new MP's personal vote.

Corio - Geelong may have been competitive back in the day (although the better Liberal booths in Geelong are in Corangamite), but it's pretty secure for the ALP now.

Holt - a safe seat for Labor, though demographically if this was in Sydney I could imagine this being vulnerable in the right circumstances.

Batman - interesting. Was once very safe for Labor but the Greens vote has exploded here, especially since Martin Ferguson's retirement. And Feeney's misadventures can't be helping the Labor vote. I think the Greens gain a pluraity of primary votes, but I also think that Liberal preferences will help get Labor over the line. Will still be closer than it needs to be, and neither result will really surprise me.

Maribyrnong - Bill Shorten's seat. It's as safe as you'd expect, although it has enough middle-class territory to make it more marginal that some of the other Western Melbourne seats.

Lalor - Julia Gillard's old seat. Again it's as safe as you'd expect, although only recently has it become uber-safe for Labor.

Calwell - another safe Western Melbourne seat for Labor. Stop me if you think you've heard this one before....

Scullin - as above

Wills - similar case to Batman. It's a bit safer for Labor on paper, but that is down to Batman being open at the last election and Wills not being so. While Labor's candidate has not quite had the same misadventures than Feeney has had, he did get the gig in a questionable preselection. With Liberal preferences Labor should still hold, but if the Liberals had preferenced the Greens I think this seat would've flipped.

Gorton - in practice, is probably Labor's safest seat in the country (Gellibrand and Grayndler have bigger margins, but both (obviously the latter moreso than the former) have Green threats which Gorton doesn't)

Gellibrand - the safest Labor seat in Victoria on paper. In practice you could see a rising Greens vote like one that we've seen in Batman and Wills did, but I doubt it will be anywhere near enough to put Labor in much danger. Maybe one to keep an eye on in the future.

Indi - in general Independents tend to get large swings on re-election as long as they've worked the district well, which McGowan I think has. She should hold on easily and get a big swing towards her. Nationals to finish 2nd too, because Mirabella is an awful candidate and their own one seems a pretty solid one, perhaps giving them an advantage here if McGowan were to vacate.

Melbourne - if Bandt was able to hold this on re-election despite a bad preference flow, this time around he shouldn't really be in danger. Indeed it feels like most of the interest for the Greens are in Batman, Wills and Higgins.

So no change in Victoria. Probably won't pan out that way, but meh. If it's an above-average night for the Liberals, this is probably the state to look out for against the grain gains.


My senate predictions are 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 for Derryn Hinch. There should be 4 quotas for Labor and the Coalition and 1 for the Greens straight off the bat, and the Coalition and Greens ought to be close enough to another one to get enough preferences to put them over the top for a final seat. I'll take Derryn Hinch for the final seat - him getting the donkey vote (i.e. the first spot on the ballot) will help especially given he's a well-known figure and he'll get preferences from both sides of the aisle that will help his position. Sex Party also a possible for that final seat, ditto the 5th Labor candidate. It doesn't sound like Ricky Muir or John Madigan will go anywhere.

[Ebowed]

Re: Melbourne Ports

Danby is an enormous prick on a personal level (he doesn't seem to understand that when he writes incoherent, insulting comments to people via Facebook that they will invariably be distributed as screen shots, but his decision to preference the Liberals over the Greens may just cost him his seat:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-liberals-poised-to-take-melbourne-ports-as-labor-slips-to-third-greens-polling-says-20160626-gpsc7l.html

My current electorate is Gellibrand.  ALP will win, obviously, but I'm confident that the Greens will improve on their vote share from 2013.  And like morgieb says, keep an eye on this one - will be competitive in about two elections.  (That being said, Tim Watts is a good MP and he will probably hold the seat as long as he wants it.)

Last I'd seen, the Greens were actually polling better in Batman than Melbourne.  (Like Danby, nobody will miss David Feeney.)  I don't think we will get over the top in Wills, although certainly response from people on the ground has been good - but I just don't think the numbers are there.  I would be shocked if we lose Batman, to tell you the truth.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

About the election broadly... I have this weird sense that either Turnbull will win relatively cleanly or there's some kind of weird polling-related conventional-wisdom upset coming.

The CPG has had layer, after layer of conventional wisdom about the Turnbull ascension pulled out from under them. When the polls are still this close, they're declaring a fait accompli ... Labor's primary vote is too low for a win, but for God's sake. The CPG has the Atlas malady, they'd rather predict something first, than do it properly.

[Hifly]

I notice that Don Farrell thinks he's the Comeback Kid and has preselected himself 2nd on the South Australian senate ticket, relegating incumbent left-winger (and Emily's List convener) Anne McEwen to the (probably) unwinnable 4th spot.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I notice that Don Farrell thinks he's the Comeback Kid and has preselected himself 2nd on the South Australian senate ticket, relegating incumbent left-winger (and Emily's List convener) Anne McEwen to the (probably) unwinnable 4th spot.

Farrell is a creep and Feeney is just as bad.

[Knives]

Just voted!

The senate was fun got to 43 and quit.

Voted Jennifer Yang number 1 - great woman recommend you all do the same. Also, voted for all Greens except Di Natale which was fun haha

[BaconBacon96]

I notice that Don Farrell thinks he's the Comeback Kid and has preselected himself 2nd on the South Australian senate ticket, relegating incumbent left-winger (and Emily's List convener) Anne McEwen to the (probably) unwinnable 4th spot.

Farrell is a creep and Feeney is just as bad.

The SDA Right everyone!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My final prediction will be sometime on Saturday afternoon, once I'm back from the booth.

However. My current prediction has shifted a little since last week (giving the Government a small TPP win, but not being able to command a complete majority, but I still cannot shake this idea that the conventional wisdom is wrong.

Seats
LNP: 75
ALP: 68
GRN: 2
OTH: 5

Primary
LNP: 42%
ALP: 35%
GRN: 9%
OTH: 14%

TPP
LNP: 50.4%
ALP: 49.6%

[andrew_c]

Any predictions for Senate?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any predictions for Senate?

Mess?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The other thing to remember is that so far, 2.6 million have already voted. It's expected to be closer to 3.5 million by the end of more than two weeks of early/postal voting by 6pm Friday.

[jaichind]

What time does the polls close on 7/2?

[Knives]

What time does the polls close on 7/2?

6pm!

[Lachi]

I don't get why the Nationals have a candidate in my electorate when there was already a Liberal (Drum vs. McGauchie), because all that is gonna do is make the seat more marginal, and vulnerable, which is fine for me, since I would like to see another independent in the house (See: Fern Summer)

[Ebowed]

Any predictions for Senate?

Mess?

Indeed, which is amusing in light of the fact that the whole reason Turnbull called the election is because he couldn't get his construction industry scare campaign bill through the Senate.

[Lachi]

Any predictions for Senate?

More Greens and NXT members

Also, my prediction (June 29)

LNP: 79
ALP: 66
GRN: 1
OTH: 4 (NXT+1)

[morgieb]

I don't get why the Nationals have a candidate in my electorate when there was already a Liberal (Drum vs. McGauchie), because all that is gonna do is make the seat more marginal, and vulnerable, which is fine for me, since I would like to see another independent in the house (See: Fern Summer)

Because that area is traditionally National territory and the sitting MP (Sharman Stone) is retiring. When rural seats are open/Labor held three-cornered contests are quite common as long as the voting system is CPV.

You have my sympathies for living in Murray, btw

[morgieb]

Voted today ftr. Gave my first preference to the Sex Party in the Lower House and the Science Party in the Upper House. Preferenced the Greens over Labor in both houses, and of course both far ahead of the Liberals (although I didn't put them last, that honour went to the Christian Democrats and Rise Up Australia)

[Knives]

Voted today ftr. Gave my first preference to the Sex Party in the Lower House and the Science Party in the Upper House. Preferenced the Greens over Labor in both houses, and of course both far ahead of the Liberals (although I didn't put them last, that honour went to the Christian Democrats and Rise Up Australia)

y

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

I mean, I don't think Labor will win more seats that the LNP but I really do think this is line-ball and there are a lot of variables ....

[morgieb]

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

I mean, I don't think Labor will win more seats that the LNP but I really do think this is line-ball and there are a lot of variables ....

On the flipside, Labor's messaging strikes me as a side that thinks they're gonna lose. But I do agree that I'm not convinced this election is 100% predictable.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My SHOCK PREDICTION: NXT will do way better than expected and kick Pyne.

[BaconBacon96]

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

I mean, I don't think Labor will win more seats that the LNP but I really do think this is line-ball and there are a lot of variables ....

I'm getting the feeling that the swing to Labor in terms of seats will either be stronger or weaker than expected but I'm not sure where that's gonna be, so my predictions have stayed relatively stable throughout. I'll post my final prediction on Saturday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IF we are to give Labor the seats that are notionally theirs after the NSW re-dist they're on 57 (55 -1 +3). The magic number is 76 for form government. The two x-factors here are NXT in SA and Windsor/Oakeshott in NSW.

[morgieb]

Sorry for the delay, just haven't built up the motivation for stuff like this.

I'll do Queensland today, rest will have to wait until tomorrow as I've got work this evening.

Maranoa - most of regional Queensland behaves quite a bit differently to the rest of rural Australia, perhaps due to the frequency of mid-sized industrial towns and heavy mining influence. Unlike say Flynn though Maranoa is mostly rural grazing farmland. Accordingly it's a very safe seat, although with Bruce Scott retiring a swing might be expected.

Moncreiff - part of the Liberal heartland that is the Gold Coast. And unlike other parts of the Gold Coast this part of the world didn't show much inclination to swing to Labor during the last Queensland government. Safe LNP hold, obviously.

Groom - another bit of LNP heartland in a non-Brisbane, non-industrial city. Might be worth watching the swing given that Labor are doing better in regional Queensland than in Brisbane and the fact that the seat is open.

Fadden - more LNP heartland on the Gold Coast. Unlike Moncreiff this part of the Gold Coast is a bit more mortgage belty so it could be interesting if there was a popular + entrenched Labor government running for re-election. Of course, this doesn't apply to this election.

Wide Bay - looks secure on paper, but Warren Truss's retirement gives an extra X-factor to the district. Add a general trend towards Labor in regional areas and there could be a swing here. Won't be enough to endanger the district though.

McPherson - essentially identical to Fadden in nature. Even with the bit about being potentially swingy in the right circumstances.

Wright - looks secure enough. Should be an LNP hold.

Fisher - tricky. On the one hand, the sitting MP Mal Brough was forced to retire for his role in the Peter Slipper scandal. Against that, there was a large PUP vote here in the last election and it's hard to tell where that goes. History suggests that this is secure enough, but there might be a bit of a swing here.

Hinkler - interesting. On the one hand, there is a new sitting MP here that should get a single sophmore surge. On the other hand, you also have to factor in a high PUP vote....and there aren't a lot of populist right parties running here. Labor also got a big swing in this area at the state election. So while there's room for a swing, I don't think Labor picks this up.

Bowman - given that the swing towards Labor isn't very high in Brisbane, this looks reasonably secure. The seat has trended right in recent years in part due to a redistribution, but also some increased affluence in the south coast of Brisbane.

Ryan - the sort of seat that doesn't swing all that much in either direction due to Left support near Brisbane combined with leafy Liberal heartland out west. LNP hold, then.

Dawson - now we're at the seats that could be interesting in the right circumstances. Like most of rural Queensland the economy isn't great, and Christensen is hardly a good sitting MP. So there is definitely room for a swing. Whether the swing will be big enough in this climate though is another question. I say no, but if Labor get strong preferences from the KAP/GLT, then watch out.

Longman - again another seat that could be hit by a potential Labor tide in regional Australia. Roy doesn't seem to be particularly popular here, and much of the populist right vote seem to be directing preferences towards Labor. LNP results here in the state election was also pretty grim. Ultimately I think that he'll survive, but it will be tight.

Dickson - I'd love to see Peter Dutton lose. While I think Dickson looks safer on paper than parts of rural Queensland, the swings at the state election was huge in this part of the world, and Dutton is a bit polarising. I think this seat will be tough to swing, but if Labor do better than expected, you never know.

Flynn - much of what I've written about Dawson and Hinkler can be written here. A fair few minor right parties could be solid votes which will hurt the LNP as well, and it's a bit more marginal than those two. And apparently Labor seem confident here. I'm actually gonna call an against-the-grain Labor gain, my bolter for this election.

Herbert - similar case to other parts of Queensland outside of Brisbane - crap economy, not a great LNP sitting member, and the potential for a large third-party vote. Against that though it's been pretty stubbornly LNP since it flipped in 1996, and I think a Townsville-based economy might hold up better than say Rockhampton. Narrow LNP hold, then.

Leichhardt - should be competitive, but Entsch is popular and a good fit for the seat. There have also been some controversies with the local Labor party up in FNQ. Will probably stay LNP then.

Forde - interesting. On paper less likely to swing than the seats north of Brisbane, but it might swing more than the seats closest to Brisbane. Two factors make this hard to predict - 1. the impact of parachuting Peter Beattie here at the last minute, and 2. the high PUP vote here. I think the LNP hang on....just.

Brisbane - well the sitting MP is retiring and the current side is marginal. Looks good for Labor on paper but it's also the sort of seat where Turnbull could have strong appeal and it'll be hard to swing the Clayfield area (without it presumably Labor would win this rather easily). Given that Labor are apparently struggling in Brisbane, LNP hold.

Bonner - an above average PUP vote in an urban district makes this tough to predict as where the vote goes could decide the seat. Against that the Liberals are holding up well in Brisbane seemingly and this part of the world is trending LNP. I'll say an LNP hold.

Capricornia - should be an easy ALP gain on paper given the margin, the  seats history and a general Labor trend in regional Queensland but the local wisdom and polling seems to suggest that the sitting MP is holding up pretty well here. Still say the ALP pick it up but you never know.

Petrie - again looks too marginal to hold, but the sitting MP should expect a sophmore surge and the (comparatively) small swing here in the 2010 election suggests that D'Ath had a strong personal vote here....and now that's gone. There's also the issue of an expected below average swing in Brisbane for Labor. I'll still predict an ALP gain, but it definitely seems like a potential 'cold-sick' kind of hold if the election is underwhelming for Labor.