Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[RogueBeaver]

ALP polling says they'll win Eden-Monaro - Troy Bramston.

[BaconBacon96]

NSW

Coalition to ALP - Eden-Monaro, Page, Barton,  Paterson, Macarthur
Coalition to Ind - Cowper

Joyce narrowly holds in New England, even Cowper's a bit of a wild prediction. I'll also take a bold risk and say Dobell stays with the Liberals, despite being notionally Labor.

Net loss of 5 for the LNP in NSW, including post-redistribution

QLD

Coalition to ALP- Capricornia, Petrie
PUP to Coalition - Fairfax

There's still a chance Brisbane falls and I'd rate Forde, Flynn and Dawson as outside chances. But from my prediction a net loss of 2 for the Coalition in QLD.

VIC

ALP to Green - Batman

There's talk about Labor losing seats Bruce and Chisholm to the Liberals but I don't agree. I'm even very unsure about Batman, which could easily go either way. Net loss of 1 for the ALP in Victoria.

TAS

Coalition to ALP - Lyons

I don't know what's happening in this state. Net loss of one for the Coalition.

SA

Coalition to ALP- Hindmarsh
Coalition to Xenophon- Mayo

Well this...will be interesting. Very unpredictable but I'll say watch for Barker, Grey and Boothby for NXT though.

NT

Coalition to ALP - Solomon

The Country Liberal government in NT has been really awful, which should impact here. Net loss of 1 for the Coalition in NT.

WA

Coalition to ALP - Burt, Cowan

Potential for a big swing here; the state Liberals are not popular here. But the margins in the seats are big, so I'll say net loss of 2 for the Coalition in WA.
 
House of Representatives Total

Coalition 77
ALP 67
Greens 2
Katter 1
Xenophon 1
Independents 3 (McGowan, Wilkie, Oakeshott)

The Senate

NSW- Coalition 5, ALP 5, Green 1, Liberal Democrat 1
Victoria- Coalition 5, ALP 4, Green 2, Derryn Hinch 1
Queensland- Coalition 5, ALP 4, Green 1, One Nation 1, Glenn Lazarus 1
South Australia- Coalition 4, ALP 4, NXT 3,Green 1, Family First 1
Western Australia- Liberal 5, ALP 4, Green 1, WA National 1
Tasmania- Coalition 4, ALP 4, Green 2, JLN 2
Northern Territory- Coalition 1, ALP 1
ACT- Coalition 1, ALP 1

Coalition- 30
ALP- 27
Greens- 8
Nick Xenophon Team- 3
Jacqui Lambie Network- 2
Family First- 1
One Nation- 1
Liberal Democrats- 1
WA Nationals- 1
Glenn Lazarus- 1
Derryn Hinch- 1

[Bacon King]

House of Representatives prediction (entirely baseless)

ALP 72
Coalition 69
NXT 3
Green 2
KAP 1
independents 3

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has released an exit poll of 25 unnamed marginal seats, suggesting the ALP will win 68 seats.

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Here is an ABC stream-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

[RogueBeaver]

Also says Coalition 51/49 2PP.

[Smid]

Only finished this at 5:58... had hoped to upload it before polls shut, but have been having internet issues of late.



I used Antony Green's calculated margins, except for Fairfax.

[SATW]

Ok, so im likely going to pull an all nighter to watch these results come in. i've officially atlas'd too long. #australia2016 #nosleep #goliberals

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Channel 9 seem to think open seats are "gains"... Also, One Nation are coming second at the moment in Wright.

[RogueBeaver]

So far consensus seems to be that Labor won't win a majority, but hung parliament still possible.

[Ebowed]

Greens ahead in Melbourne, Batman and Wills.
Labor sweeping Tasmania outside of Denison.

[RogueBeaver]

PVO predicts a Coalition majority.

[Harry Hayfield]

Barker in South Australia currently has Xenophon in second place. If it stays that way transfers will be very interesting to watch

[Antonio the Sixth]

PVO predicts a Coalition majority.

Oh, great.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PVO predicts a Coalition majority.

Shouldn't quite yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy: hung parliament most likely at this stage.

[BaconBacon96]

This is confusing

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a live results page somewhere?

[Ebowed]

Looking like a hung parliament atm. Labor ahead in Wills again.

Keep an eye on Dickson.

[Talleyrand]

Here's the live results page-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

Major issue I see for ALP is that they're currently ahead in many seats by margins less than 1%. With postals, a lot of those will sweep back to the L/NP. I'd expect the Coalition to have a majority pretty easily at this point...

[Ebowed]

Michael Danby in 3rd in Melbourne Ports.

[Talleyrand]

ABC predicting 78 Coalition seats if they don't have any losses in WA... I still think it'll be around 80 in the end.

[SATW]

Loving Julie Bishop's cattiness towards NXT lol

Also, had a random question...I'm watching ABC's livestream and missed the bit on Michael Danby's race, is he going to lose his spot to a Green? it shows he in third for first preference, does that mean Green would be counted for that seat as the beneficiary of 2nd pref votes?

[IceAgeComing]

Loving Julie Bishop's cattiness towards NXT lol

Also, had a random question...I'm watching ABC's livestream and missed the bit on Michael Danby's race, is he going to lose his spot to a Green? it shows he in third for first preference, does that mean Green would be counted for that seat as the beneficiary of 2nd pref votes?

its really close at the moment between the Greens and Danby; at the moment it looks like minor party preferences could theoretically change the order.  Whoever is in third place at the moment where everyone but the top three parties have been eliminated is eliminated and gets their preferences redistributed.  If the Greens are second then Danby wins; if Danby gets eliminated then the LNP probably gain the seat because his how to vote material preferences the LNP over the Greens; and enough people will follow it to deny the Greens the seat...

[SATW]

Loving Julie Bishop's cattiness towards NXT lol

Also, had a random question...I'm watching ABC's livestream and missed the bit on Michael Danby's race, is he going to lose his spot to a Green? it shows he in third for first preference, does that mean Green would be counted for that seat as the beneficiary of 2nd pref votes?

its really close at the moment between the Greens and Danby; at the moment it looks like minor party preferences could theoretically change the order.  Whoever is in third place at the moment where everyone but the top three parties have been eliminated is eliminated and gets their preferences redistributed.  If the Greens are second then Danby wins; if Danby gets eliminated then the LNP probably gain the seat because his how to vote material preferences the LNP over the Greens; and enough people will follow it to deny the Greens the seat...

Ah, ok. Thanks for helping me out there.


Danby is one of the few ALP MPs I like, so will be continuing to follow the race closely.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ABC predicting 78 Coalition seats if they don't have any losses in WA... I still think it'll be around 80 in the end.

OK ...