Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[morgieb]

So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

Because Queenslanders are idiots.

Look at some of the One Nation votes in the HOR!

EDIT: What's worse is that we might well see two more One Nation Senators in other states!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

The simplest explanation is that she has filled the "right-wing populist" (if you can ascribe an ideological term to it...) void created by the collapse of the PUP.

If there's one thing Australia doesn't have a void of, it's right populist parties though. Why pick perhaps the most embarrassing 90's throwback?

[Smid]

Results are from a downloaded .csv from the AEC website, except where there are non-traditional candidate counts, where I used Antony Green's figures.


Edit: I've also merged the Liberal and National results into a single "Coalition" blue colour tone, because of the chaotic minor parties winning single seats here and there, and requiring primary vote analysis maps later.

[Lachi]

Lines of the night

-the 311 bus route line
-Suck on that, Kerry O'Brien!

Also, Murray is finally the marginal seat it deserves to be

[IceAgeComing]

What's worse is that we might well see two more One Nation Senators in other states!

I'm pretty confident that they'll only have one; the only two places that they have a shot in is NSW and WA; in the former they've been drifting away and will probably end up under half a quota and the count is still early in the latter.

[morgieb]

What's worse is that we might well see two more One Nation Senators in other states!

I'm pretty confident that they'll only have one; the only two places that they have a shot in is NSW and WA; in the former they've been drifting away and will probably end up under half a quota and the count is still early in the latter.

I did say might. NSW has a lot of minor right parties getting votes that are behind One Nation and could give One Nation preferences. Early days in WA yes so it's hard to call.

[IceAgeComing]

The ABC have put their Senate results page up

I'm listing it like this for ease; the first number are seats that are definite, the second number are seats listed as "likely" by the ABC

LNP: 26/1
ALP: 23/1
Greens: 3/3
Xenophon: 2/1
One Nation: 1/0
Lambie: 1/0
Hinch: 0/1

The last seat in NSW seems to be between the LNP and One Nation; who are 0.14 of a quota behind.  She's falling well behind in WA; she'd need most of the minor party votes to get ahead of the ALP.

[morgieb]

The ABC have put their Senate results page up

I'm listing it like this for ease; the first number are seats that are definite, the second number are seats listed as "likely" by the ABC

LNP: 26/1
ALP: 23/1
Greens: 3/3
Xenophon: 2/1
One Nation: 1/0
Lambie: 1/0
Hinch: 0/1

The last seat in NSW seems to be between the LNP and One Nation; who are 0.14 of a quota behind.  She's falling well behind in WA; she'd need most of the minor party votes to get ahead of the ALP.

Worth noting that there's also a number of seats in doubt. As things stand:

NSW: Coalition 4, Labor 4. Greens and Coalition will probably gain another seat too. Last two seats a lottery, One Nation probably have the edge for one whereas the Liberal Democrats might be the favourite for the other.

Victoria: Coalition 4, Labor 4, Greens 1. Derryn Hinch will probably gain a seat and the Greens should be favoured to gain another seat. I have no idea with the last seat.

Queensland: LNP 4, Labor 3, One Nation 1. Greens should pick up a seat, LNP and Labor are probably favoured to pick up another seat too. Last seat a lottery.

Western Australia: Liberal 4, Labor 3, Greens 1. You'd think all three of them would also gain another seat as well. On current figures I'd back One Nation for the last seat.

South Australia: Liberal 4, Labor 3, NXT 2. Labor and the NXT should gain another seat too. Greens the favourite for the last seat, though if preferences are tight I wouldn't write off Family First.

Tasmania: 4 Labor, 4 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Lambie. I'd favour Labor and the Greens to pick up the last two seats.

ACT: Labor have one, the Liberals should gain the other.

NT: 1 Labor, 1 CLP.

[IceAgeComing]

I couldn't be arsed working out how many they haven't given away yet

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

[libertpaulian]

WOW.  67-67 TIE!

[IceAgeComing]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think even if the Libs regain the majority, Malcolm is finished as leader.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

As it stands rn, it would finsh 73-72 in favour of the ALP

[morgieb]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

Yeah this is 100% correct. Usually late polling favours the Coalition.

[libertpaulian]

Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

[Smid]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

expect his faction to carefully brush that fact out of history though.

[rob in cal]

   If it comes down to a 73-72 seat breakdown is it likely that whoever has the 73rd seat will form the next government?  Of the 5 third party/indy winners is it safe to say that two lean right, two lean left (the Green and the Independent from Tasmania), and one is right in the middle (Nick Xenophone candidate)?

[jaichind]

Even though it is 67-67 right now I have to imagine that L/NP has the upper hand due to postal votes.  Not sure how much of that are counted.

[Cassius]

Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

expect his faction to carefully brush that fact out of history though.

Well, maybe. But Turnbull was supposed to be the guy who maintained the Coalition's comfortable majority because he was so moderate and electable, yet he's completely cocked that up.

[Vega]

I can imagine that the Greens are probably disappointed with these results as they stand. Definitely a blow to them.

[IceAgeComing]

   If it comes down to a 73-72 seat breakdown is it likely that whoever has the 73rd seat will form the next government?  Of the 5 third party/indy winners is it safe to say that two lean right, two lean left (the Green and the Independent from Tasmania), and one is right in the middle (Nick Xenophone candidate)?

The Greens and Wilkie would probably go with the ALP; Katter and the other independent would likely prefer the LNP and that puts Xenophon in the balance of power.  I think that they'd be inclined to go with the LNP; but there might be a bit of pressure to back whoever has the 73 seats since otherwise you'd be in a 75/75 situation

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

expect his faction to carefully brush that fact out of history though.

Well, maybe. But Turnbull was supposed to be the guy who maintained the Coalition's comfortable majority because he was so moderate and electable, yet he's completely cocked that up.

Yeah. I have always thought Malcolm was a paper tiger, and it seems pretty clear that he played less well in certain electorates than a populist would have done. But already people like Bolt are writing objectively wrong stuff like that Abbott would have won this.

[136or142]

Any chance of a 'Grand Coalition'?