Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[IceAgeComing]

that'd have to be a house only election though, right?

[IceAgeComing]

My understanding of the obtuseness of Australian election law is that they'd have to go on for at least 18 months to allow them to have the normal house + half senate election; any less than that and they couldn't call an early half-senate election

[IceAgeComing]

Loving Julie Bishop's cattiness towards NXT lol

Also, had a random question...I'm watching ABC's livestream and missed the bit on Michael Danby's race, is he going to lose his spot to a Green? it shows he in third for first preference, does that mean Green would be counted for that seat as the beneficiary of 2nd pref votes?

its really close at the moment between the Greens and Danby; at the moment it looks like minor party preferences could theoretically change the order.  Whoever is in third place at the moment where everyone but the top three parties have been eliminated is eliminated and gets their preferences redistributed.  If the Greens are second then Danby wins; if Danby gets eliminated then the LNP probably gain the seat because his how to vote material preferences the LNP over the Greens; and enough people will follow it to deny the Greens the seat...

[IceAgeComing]

I don't know why the ABC have just gone to some long boring speech from some backbench MP; I want to know what the results are

[IceAgeComing]

they also won't be able to pass the double dissolution trigger bills in a joint session if the Senate is anything like we expect it to be

[IceAgeComing]

A hung parliament is the most likely outcome; currently its 73/68/1/4 according to the ABC with the four undecided seats being split equally by the two major parties, although all are within half a percent so its incredibly close.  I'm not sure whether the ABC predictions are adjusted for postals (the predicted numbers are about 0.5% better for the Coalition than the current ones which makes me think that they've tried to do that) which suggests that they need to be a lot more LNP than expected to give the Coalition a bare majority.

The senate is kind of interesting: the Greens might end up with less Senators than they have now which isn't what anyone expected.  In terms of minor parties the Liberal Democrats, Motoring Enthusiasts, and Glenn Lazarus have definately lost (and Madigan technically I support although he was never expected to win); Family First need a boatload of preferences to hold their SA seat and unless PUP is much more popular in WA than literally everywhere else in Australia they've lost there as well.  Lambie has held her seat; Xenophon currently has 2.89 Quotas which I think will lead to 3 Senators; One Nation definately has one in Queensland but they've been slipping further back as more votes have been counted so I think they've lost the second one there, and they currently have 0.58 of a Quota in NSW which means that they need to get preferences from a few people to get a Senator there - there are a few votes out for parties that might give their votes to her over the major parties based on my amateur knowledge.  In Victoria Derryn Hinch's Justice Party has 0.78 of a Quota; that's close enough to give him that seat I think considering that there'll be a fair few exhausted votes in this election.  So in looks like there might be more "minor parties" in the new Senate; it depends on how the One Nation does in NSW.  It looks like the Greens might have six; definitely one everywhere but SA and there I think they ought to get one unless something odd happens.

If I'm wrong please tell me; I'm not an expert on Australian elections by any means

[IceAgeComing]

One Nation currently have 0.52 of a Quota in WA; ahead of the WA Nationals which is odd.  Does mean that they have an outside shot of a Senate seat there; although they'd want preferences to go their way.  NSW is drifting away from them, and they'll only get Hanson from Queensland.

The Greens currently have 1.4 quotas; means that they might only end up with one Senate seat which is disappointing since that's probably the place where they were most likely to get two.  Their vote share is down 4% from last time.

Other than that nothing has changed; I've not bothered to look at the smaller minor parties to work out how they'll preference since honestly I don't think that anyone really knows at this point just because of the sheer number of parties standing.

e: I'd argue that having an early election is better than the dysfunction that seems to have been typical in America recently...

[IceAgeComing]

Its pretty clear at this point that the Double Dissolution trigger bills probably won't pass through a Joint Session; since I think the Coalition has lost Senators (certainly hasn't gained any) and I don't see how the new Senate cross bench will be any more favourable - and they've lost House seats as well so they don't have a majority in a joint session

[IceAgeComing]

I don't know if anyone really knows; I didn't hear much rumbling about a One Nation senate win

They are still ahead of the Nationals in WA at this point; I'm pretty sure that they'll stay there.  Bad for the Nats; there was lots of talk about them winning at least one Senate seat and they've ended up miles short and finishing behind One Nation

[IceAgeComing]

What's worse is that we might well see two more One Nation Senators in other states!

I'm pretty confident that they'll only have one; the only two places that they have a shot in is NSW and WA; in the former they've been drifting away and will probably end up under half a quota and the count is still early in the latter.

[IceAgeComing]

The ABC have put their Senate results page up

I'm listing it like this for ease; the first number are seats that are definite, the second number are seats listed as "likely" by the ABC

LNP: 26/1
ALP: 23/1
Greens: 3/3
Xenophon: 2/1
One Nation: 1/0
Lambie: 1/0
Hinch: 0/1

The last seat in NSW seems to be between the LNP and One Nation; who are 0.14 of a quota behind.  She's falling well behind in WA; she'd need most of the minor party votes to get ahead of the ALP.

[IceAgeComing]

I couldn't be arsed working out how many they haven't given away yet

[IceAgeComing]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

[IceAgeComing]

   If it comes down to a 73-72 seat breakdown is it likely that whoever has the 73rd seat will form the next government?  Of the 5 third party/indy winners is it safe to say that two lean right, two lean left (the Green and the Independent from Tasmania), and one is right in the middle (Nick Xenophone candidate)?

The Greens and Wilkie would probably go with the ALP; Katter and the other independent would likely prefer the LNP and that puts Xenophon in the balance of power.  I think that they'd be inclined to go with the LNP; but there might be a bit of pressure to back whoever has the 73 seats since otherwise you'd be in a 75/75 situation

[IceAgeComing]

Seems like below the line votes might affect which Labor or Liberal candidates get elected is Tasmania: both major parties pushed incumbent Senators down in their list, but they seem to have managed to get enough below the line to actually eliminate candidates above them on the ticket below them.  I wonder when the last time that happened was?

[IceAgeComing]

Herbert is very, very close (last figure I saw had an ALP lead of 35 after the most recent recount; its very much in the position where the losing side will probably go to court to try and get a fresh election) and outside of Tasmania the Senate is still being counted (!) and although seat numbers .  The latter will take a long time just because of the voting system; with ticket voting they could do it quicker since 95%+ of ballots were people voting 1 above the line and so they could basically count it like a FPTP election, put the numbers of first preferences into the computer and press the button to allocate preferences and see who won with the below the line votes having to be entered manually but there weren't that many of them; while now they have to check preferences of literally every ballot and that takes a lot longer considering the large numbers of votes.  The general picture is clear though.