Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[BaconBacon96]

Yes, I'm starting to think Shorten is becoming a drag on the party's chances. How would Albanese or Plibersek do as leader?

[BaconBacon96]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6206-preferred-leaders-liberal-labor-april-2015-201504260519

According to this Roy Morgan poll from April, 23% of voters prefer Plibersek as leader compared to 21% for Shorten and 13% for Albo.

[BaconBacon96]

My concern with Plibersek is that she'd come across as too much like Gillard.

[BaconBacon96]

We know the election will be called at some point between Thursday night and Saturday morning.

I thought May 10/11 was going to be the day the election was officially called? Don't they need time to get the bills through Parliament?

[BaconBacon96]

Only the seventh double dissolution in Australian history...quite the moment.

[BaconBacon96]

I hear talk of McEwen being a seat that might actually swing towards the Liberals...is there any real chance of this, at all?

[BaconBacon96]

Cross posted from AAD

Here's something to think about- where does the vote of the Palmer United Party go?

This is a factor I have not yet seen considered in the election, yet may potentially be crucial in deciding some marginal seats. The party is all but ensured to disappear after the election and at this stage does not seem to be running any lower house candidates. Even if it did, it's vote would surely collapse.

5.5% nationwide is a large amount of voters to suddenly become available and that percentage is even higher in some seats considered key. Particularly in Queensland, in seats such as Capricornia (7%) Petrie (10%) and Forde (12%). Even in other areas, parts of NSW and Tasmania currently under contention it's vote was higher than average.

In the area it did the strongest, regional Queensland, the seats are mostly safe LNP and the ex-PUP vote there will probably primarily flow either to the LNP or to other populist minor parties, such as Bob Katter and One Nation. It is not here, but rather in the marginal seats in both QLD and other states that these voters will have an impact.

I don't have any predictions for how these people will swing, considering they have no clear ideological bent. But it's worth noting that these seats essentially have more swing voters than they otherwise would, by virtue of the PUP no longer contending. If there's serious movement towards one of the major parties, these voters may be decisive in who wins these seats.

[BaconBacon96]

I wouldn't count out their votes heading to the various personality outfits led by present crossbenchers. People like Lazuras and Lambie have high name recognition compared to their faceless men colleagues in the Senate.

With regards to the upper house vote, yes I agree. Lazarus and Lambie are both considered decent chances of reelection in their respective states. But since they won't be running candidates in the lower house, that still begs the question of who those votes go to in those marginal seats.

[BaconBacon96]

Palmer may have originally been a Liberal member but his party had no ideological direction whatsoever.

[BaconBacon96]

This would be the second time in a week Turnbull has avoided an appearance alongside Shorten...

[BaconBacon96]

NXT is looking more likely to steal Mayo off of the Liberals everyday. I think the Coalition will end up with somewhere between 75-80 seats. I'll post my individual predictions closer to the actual vote.

[BaconBacon96]

I notice that Don Farrell thinks he's the Comeback Kid and has preselected himself 2nd on the South Australian senate ticket, relegating incumbent left-winger (and Emily's List convener) Anne McEwen to the (probably) unwinnable 4th spot.

Farrell is a creep and Feeney is just as bad.

The SDA Right everyone!

[BaconBacon96]

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

I mean, I don't think Labor will win more seats that the LNP but I really do think this is line-ball and there are a lot of variables ....

I'm getting the feeling that the swing to Labor in terms of seats will either be stronger or weaker than expected but I'm not sure where that's gonna be, so my predictions have stayed relatively stable throughout. I'll post my final prediction on Saturday.

[BaconBacon96]

NSW

Coalition to ALP - Eden-Monaro, Page, Barton,  Paterson, Macarthur
Coalition to Ind - Cowper

Joyce narrowly holds in New England, even Cowper's a bit of a wild prediction. I'll also take a bold risk and say Dobell stays with the Liberals, despite being notionally Labor.

Net loss of 5 for the LNP in NSW, including post-redistribution

QLD

Coalition to ALP- Capricornia, Petrie
PUP to Coalition - Fairfax

There's still a chance Brisbane falls and I'd rate Forde, Flynn and Dawson as outside chances. But from my prediction a net loss of 2 for the Coalition in QLD.

VIC

ALP to Green - Batman

There's talk about Labor losing seats Bruce and Chisholm to the Liberals but I don't agree. I'm even very unsure about Batman, which could easily go either way. Net loss of 1 for the ALP in Victoria.

TAS

Coalition to ALP - Lyons

I don't know what's happening in this state. Net loss of one for the Coalition.

SA

Coalition to ALP- Hindmarsh
Coalition to Xenophon- Mayo

Well this...will be interesting. Very unpredictable but I'll say watch for Barker, Grey and Boothby for NXT though.

NT

Coalition to ALP - Solomon

The Country Liberal government in NT has been really awful, which should impact here. Net loss of 1 for the Coalition in NT.

WA

Coalition to ALP - Burt, Cowan

Potential for a big swing here; the state Liberals are not popular here. But the margins in the seats are big, so I'll say net loss of 2 for the Coalition in WA.
 
House of Representatives Total

Coalition 77
ALP 67
Greens 2
Katter 1
Xenophon 1
Independents 3 (McGowan, Wilkie, Oakeshott)

The Senate

NSW- Coalition 5, ALP 5, Green 1, Liberal Democrat 1
Victoria- Coalition 5, ALP 4, Green 2, Derryn Hinch 1
Queensland- Coalition 5, ALP 4, Green 1, One Nation 1, Glenn Lazarus 1
South Australia- Coalition 4, ALP 4, NXT 3,Green 1, Family First 1
Western Australia- Liberal 5, ALP 4, Green 1, WA National 1
Tasmania- Coalition 4, ALP 4, Green 2, JLN 2
Northern Territory- Coalition 1, ALP 1
ACT- Coalition 1, ALP 1

Coalition- 30
ALP- 27
Greens- 8
Nick Xenophon Team- 3
Jacqui Lambie Network- 2
Family First- 1
One Nation- 1
Liberal Democrats- 1
WA Nationals- 1
Glenn Lazarus- 1
Derryn Hinch- 1

[BaconBacon96]

This is confusing

[BaconBacon96]

So do Australians pronounce it cow-lition, or is it just an Abbott thing?

Abbott.

[BaconBacon96]

How are NXT going to do in the senate?

3 seats in SA.

[BaconBacon96]

Albanese should be careful.  The rank and file has gone from backing him in 2013 to supporting Shorten.  I prefer Shorten as do many other leftists who preferred Albo three years ago.

Shorten ran a very strong campaign and that's why the result is in doubt right now.  To throw out the person who got the Labor party this far is a slap in the face.

It would be absolutely ridiculous to challenge Shorten after such a result. And I say this as an Albanese fan.