Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Vega]

It seems as though if somehow Shorten does the right thing and resigns, ALP's chances will be sky high (or "well positioned", at least).

[Vega]

Yes, I'm starting to think Shorten is becoming a drag on the party's chances. How would Albanese or Plibersek do as leader?

Pilbersek would prevent the party from going even further right, I guess; ditto for Albanese. However, I don't think there has been any public polling on the two.

[Vega]

My concern with Plibersek is that she'd come across as too much like Gillard.

She won't, as long as the transition from Shorten to herself is well conducted. Gillard's problem all through out her tenure was that she "knifed Rudd in the back", etc. etc., and then was protrayed as power hungry and duplicitous.

Pilbersek shouldn't necessarily have that problem.

[Vega]

Is there any chance this will end in a hung parliament? And, if so, how are the Greens doing? ALP will need them if they are going to have a victory.

[Vega]

Hopefully Jaymes Diaz runs again!

[Vega]

Hi.  Someone will have to explain how the Senate elections work in Australia.  It seems they are for 6 year terms with half each up every 3 years.  But it seems that every-time there is a general election for the House half the Senate is up for re-election as well.  I get this time it is a double dissolution where everyone in the Senate is up for election.  But traditionally how do they square the fact that it it not clear that every House election occurs every 3 years but the Senate term is 6 years.  I think that the way it works is that every other House election half the Senators are up for re-election.  Did I get that right ?

I imagine that if they were to get out of sync, than the Senate elections would still happen separately.

[Vega]

If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

[Vega]

If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

Yes, we would probably lose by more.

Perhaps. I shouldn't be too harsh.

Also, I have to say Australian government buildings are very humble. It's admirable in some ways.

[Vega]

If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

Yes, we would probably lose by more.

Perhaps. I shouldn't be too harsh.

Also, I have to say Australian government buildings are very humble. It's admirable in some ways.

Parliament House isn't grandiose outside, but it is inside, but just not Romanesque

It has a really unique design, which is different from most other Parliament and Legislative buildings.

Also, what is the best news channel/outlet for election coverage? ABC? I know Sky News has an affiliate in Australia.

[Vega]

Man, Turnbull looks better than 99% of US politicians. I wonder how much his suits cost...

[Vega]

What does Palmer United even stand for? (Clive Palmer reminds me of Jim Justice for some reason but I don't know much about him)

That's a rather curious comparison, but he's more like Trump (and I hate comparing international political figures to one another) if you want a connection like that.

He's a decidedly conservative "Australian party" style politician who build up a small following that dissolved nearly immediately after he was elected.

[Vega]

Is it possible there will be no majority in the House?

Hung parliaments aren't as interesting as in other countries, but assuming the chasm between Labor and a majority isn't too large, I imagine the Greens will once again give them at least confidence and supply.

[Vega]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

But if Labor's coffers are close to empty, which I think they will likely be, and other reasons, they likely will have to in some confidence and supply scheme.

They really seem damned if they do, damned if they don't either way.

[Vega]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

Wow, really?

That reminds me, it's a good time to mention that one of the advantages to voting out the Coalition will be saving millions of dollars on a pointless, non-binding, divisive plebiscite on equal rights.

The Greens have a reckless asylum seeker policy and limited understanding of free market economics, they don't deserve to ever being government. They have a basic grasp of industrial relations laws and instead win votes by proposing unrealistic policies. Their voters are largely people who will never face the difficulties of someone who survives on welfare, instead they use their vote as something to identify as, this is incredibly problematic and serves to disenfranchise the poorest Australians. We need a strong left-wing opposition, not a fragmented one which is what the Greens are seeking to create.

Most of their policies don't seem that unique to themselves, and look familiar to other left wing parties in other countries. I don't think they are that insane.

[Vega]

Will the Greens basically become the equivalent of the Nationals, but for the left?

I'd say that is pretty unlikely due to Labor's hostility towards them.

[Vega]

I have a feeling the coalition will barely cling

And if this happens, or a Coalition largest party in a hung parliament, I imagine there will be a new election within the year.

[Vega]

that'd have to be a house only election though, right?

I believe that a portion of the Senate would actually be contested, but obviously not the whole senate as in a double dissolution.

[Vega]

Given how well Shorten is running his campaign, and how dismally, or perhaps "typical" Turnbull has been running his, I'm surprised they're still pretty much tied. There hasn't been an awful lot of movement since the beginning of the campaign.

[Vega]

Are you guys paying attention to the youth unemployment figures?

Or, even more strikingly, the underemployment figures?

The idea that the Coalition are the "better economic managers" needs to die a quick, well deserved death.  I mean, for god's sake, Turnbull drones on and on about the transitioning economy and yet he doesn't even have a vision for what the economy will look like outside of the prospect of it being easier to be an enormous corporation.  It really insults our intelligence, to try to foist the discredited trickle down economics on us, and yet, it looks like people are stupid enough to buy it.  Wow.

Conservative parties in western democracies always have a way of convincing people, unfoundedly, that they are the best stewards of the economy. Facts be damned.

[Vega]

I can imagine that the Greens are probably disappointed with these results as they stand. Definitely a blow to them.

[Vega]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

[Vega]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

The counting seems incredibly sluggish right now, sadly.

Yeah, and the lack of consistency in seat numbers is odd.

[Vega]

tbh this is the result that UK labour was suppose to have in 2015

If it happened this way, Miliband probably would have stayed on for better or for worse.

[Vega]

Had Turnbull called an election in the (Australian) summer of 2015, he probably would have gotten at least a big a majority as he had. Bet he's kicking himself for that.

[Vega]

  I think it would be fascinating to see an Australian election in which they use the Irish system of PR, which I guess is more or less the senate system, for the House of Reps.  Greens, Pauline Hansonites, maybe some Bob Katter proteges, Nick Xenophone people, Nationals competing everywhere, plus Libs and ALP all running in 5 seat disctricts all over the country.  That would be awesome.

MMP, I assume you mean? Yeah, that would be interesting. I'd personally vastly prefer it to the Alternative Vote.

Though I guess elections would take even longer to count.