Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

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Wait, aren't they supposed to be reforming the senate to prevent wonderful mistakes like Muir?

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Does he even have the trigger for a DD?

Ugh the idea of this reprobate remaining in power is pretty gross. Sorry for the editorialising, but Abbott is such a screw-up; 48% of Aussies must be on meth.

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Wow, does Ipsos normally lean Gren? That's a good number for Di Natale et al.

Where would they target? I assume Sydney and Grayndler are safe ALP because of their heavyweight incumbents.

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He was a key player in The Curious Saga of Rudds and Gillards, where he played a somewhat opportunistic, almost nasty role in knifing both leaders. To a lot of the Aussie public he is nothing but a slimy union leadership hack. (My Australian uncle was visiting the other day, and said that phras almost verbatim in fact). That puts him vulnerable to attacks from the right (who resent unions) and the left (his affiliate union, the AWU is the most powerful force of the Labor Right; and the knifing of Rudd was associated with the pro-mining lobby loathed by greens and their allies).

A lot of people dislike the ALP's factional culture and powerful "faceless men", more to the point, and a man like Shorten - a product of such a culture - feels like the ALP is dragging its feet on internal reform.

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Morgan seems to be very much leftier than The others, but predicted '13 fairly well?

In regards to WA, they have a mediocre Coalition government and are seeing the bum end of the mining boom. They also have been experiencing an oddly high Green vote since the Ludlam by-election although that could be disspating (no minor party cross tabs sadly).

Young people (18-24) 67% ALP!
Even the two cross-tabs covering 25-49 are overwhelmingly Labor, and even 65+ only leans ALP.

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For some reason Morgan, after previously being much Labor than the other pollsters has flipped the other way, Md is giving results way more Liberal than the others. Odd.

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Former New England Independent MP Tony Windsor is considering a political comeback.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-09/tony-windsor-considers-political-comeback-in-light-of-mine/6606022

I cannot begin to tell you how much I want this to happen.

he's in!

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He's very ... ALP in his background. Also he does seem to be an oddball, giving us two of the weirder Gillard era stories (the time he declared his view was "whatever the Prime Minister's is" and that time he went insane at a shop worker when he was buying a pie (lol).

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So senate results would be fun with a DD. I wonder which crossbechers will return? Xenephon (duh) probably with a running mate or two if he can assemble a non-idiotic bunch. Lambie? Quite possibly, although I doubt the other two puppies will return. Muir? Probably not, although I wouldn't be surprised if he did manage to return. Day? Probably, if he capitalises on anti-Turball liberals. Leyonhjelm? I don't know, tbh.

Queensland should be a good target for non-LNP conservatives. Katter was a busted flush last time around, but he could conceivably return in a less anti-independent environment. Perhaps Pauline could make it to the senate, although she may be past her prime. West Australia could be a good market for conservative independents what with the economy - National WA maybe?

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I wouldn't count out their votes heading to the various personality outfits led by present crossbenchers. People like Lazuras and Lambie have high name recognition compared to their faceless men colleagues in the Senate.

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Will the Greens basically become the equivalent of the Nationals, but for the left?

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Yes! Chaser is back, love those guys

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TNMT39Ux4XE

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Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

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I'm surprised the ALP haven't capitalised on the very real fact that the LNP still can just roll its leaders at any time.

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My SHOCK PREDICTION: NXT will do way better than expected and kick Pyne.

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So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

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So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

The simplest explanation is that she has filled the "right-wing populist" (if you can ascribe an ideological term to it...) void created by the collapse of the PUP.

If there's one thing Australia doesn't have a void of, it's right populist parties though. Why pick perhaps the most embarrassing 90's throwback?

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I think even if the Libs regain the majority, Malcolm is finished as leader.

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Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

expect his faction to carefully brush that fact out of history though.

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Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

expect his faction to carefully brush that fact out of history though.

Well, maybe. But Turnbull was supposed to be the guy who maintained the Coalition's comfortable majority because he was so moderate and electable, yet he's completely cocked that up.

Yeah. I have always thought Malcolm was a paper tiger, and it seems pretty clear that he played less well in certain electorates than a populist would have done. But already people like Bolt are writing objectively wrong stuff like that Abbott would have won this.

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   If it comes down to a 73-72 seat breakdown is it likely that whoever has the 73rd seat will form the next government?  Of the 5 third party/indy winners is it safe to say that two lean right, two lean left (the Green and the Independent from Tasmania), and one is right in the middle (Nick Xenophone candidate)?

This is the Indi Independent:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/06/election-2016-marriage-equality-asylum-seekers-renewables-cathy-mcgowan-launches-indi-campaign

so more of a centre-leftist (although of course if she were to prop up a Labor government, I doubt she would be elected another term)

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Who will be installed as speaker? A crossbencher? An ALP defector?

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Hahaha this antipaedo senator apparently slept with a teenager when he was in this thirties ,

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Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.

How does that explain Lingiari (the seat covering almost all of the area of the Northern Territory)? It's far and away the largest seat by area held by the ALP (and since its creation in 2001). I've read that Alice Springs is more cosmopolitan than one might generally think. There's almost certainly a significant Aboriginal population in the electorate, but do they actually vote and if so, do they vote ALP (to be honest, I'm not familiar with any indigenous population in a first world developed country not voting for the centre-left party)?

In a somewhat related topic, I've wondered why the Northern Territory isn't a state. Is it because they would get more seats in the Senate as a state (quite a lot more if all states would still be considered equal)?

1. Alice Springs is a big portion of the vote and the local ALP member is well-known, well-liked and has a great relationship with the local Aboriginal community. You don't have the "same" kind of established country people you have in the other states.

2.Yup - the ALP does extremely well with the Indigenous community.

3. On statehood, the Constitution only grants equal-footing to the original colonies. Any states that are created would likely have fewer than 12 Senators. I mean, people look at Tasmania with 500k people having 12 senators as a joke, how would the NT, with not much over 200k having 12 look?

I was of the impression Alice Springs is the most Conservative part of the territory. The Alice Spirings elctorates in NT, for instance, are rock-solid CLP (maybe not this year, but eh).

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It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.

Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.

Yes, but it's not that long ago when Labor could win Grey, Kennedy or Kalgoorlie (as it was then). Now those are impossible pipe dreams...

Am I right in thinking that apart from Lingiari, the largest ALP seat by size is Eden-Monaro? That's not very large by Australian standards.

There are a few big ALP seats in state elections - Giles in SA, Cook (the Cape York Peninsula), the Kimberley region etc