Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Does Australia have a site like ThreeHundredEight.com for Canada and 538 for the US?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Newspoll has others at 34% in South Australia (Labor at 27%, Coalition at 34%, and Greens at 5%). The Nick Xenophon Team probably makes up a lot of that according to Bowe. If the Nick Xenophon Team is at 25% or so, if bet that they'll get a seat or two. I'm pretty sure that they have candidates running in almost all of the South Australia seats along with a few other random seats.

It's a pity that Tasmania wasn't included.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/30/newspoll-bludgertrack-broken/

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

From what I've been following, I'm guessing that NXT will get a seat from SA. I'm not sure that they'll get more than that, but I'd bet that they can get one seat. The Greens might pick up a second seat somewhere.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.

Oh no, not again. That would be PM number what... 7 since 2007 (counting Rudd twice)?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here's a mostly ignorant American's predictions:

Coalition: 76
Labor: 68
Greens: 2
Xenophon: 1
Others: 3

Bare majority for the Coalition.

God Save the Queen and God help anyone trying to do Senate predictions.

These are based off the Poll Bludger, this thread, and nothing else. I look forward to watching the results. When do they start coming in?

Polls close at 6 according to the Sydney Morning Herald. Assuming it's AEST, that means 1 AM Pacific Daylight Time for me. Bleh. I'll probably try to get up early at hope that there's still a lot coming in at 6 or 7 AM my time.

Side note: During DST, is South Australia actually a half hour ahead of Queensland?

Edit 2:

TPP

Coalition: 50.7%
Labor: 49.3%

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

Sounds like Batman could get closer and maybe flip.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'd love to see a second election this year. It would be funny if that happened in Austria and Australia.

It will be interesting to see if we get any lasting change from this period of instability. Turnbull doesn't seem long for the PM-ship. Not that Shorten will win, but I'm not sure how long Turnbull will last this term. Anything less than a majority would be awful for him.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I've been under impression that the CLP really screwed up in NT and that's why the ALP is doing so well this time.