Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking at the results briefly atm it looks like a repeat of 1998 - the ALP swing was big but in all the wrong places (apart from Tasmania and a few unrepresentative places like MacArthur... what happened there?). Hopefully the LNP don't just scrap a majority with this.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

One positive is that Labor have won Eden-Monaro and Lindsay, so come whenever the next election will be, the media will have to obsess about something else.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Gilmore - which was declared earlier for the LNP - has been put back into play as later counts are leaning ALP. It's now 50-50.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

As it stands rn, it would finsh 73-72 in favour of the ALP

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.

Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.

Yes, but it's not that long ago when Labor could win Grey, Kennedy or Kalgoorlie (as it was then). Now those are impossible pipe dreams...

Am I right in thinking that apart from Lingiari, the largest ALP seat by size is Eden-Monaro? That's not very large by Australian standards.