Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[rob in cal]

   If it comes down to a 73-72 seat breakdown is it likely that whoever has the 73rd seat will form the next government?  Of the 5 third party/indy winners is it safe to say that two lean right, two lean left (the Green and the Independent from Tasmania), and one is right in the middle (Nick Xenophone candidate)?

[rob in cal]

   The AEC website has lots of great info.  If you click on results by division its got a breakdown by precinct, and at the bottom shows how many postal ballots have been received, though they haven't been counted yet.

[rob in cal]

   Looks like a typical seat has about 7-9 thousand postal votes waiting to be counted.  In 2013, Coalition candidates usually did about 3-5% better in postal votes than regular votes according to some random seats that I checked, so if this holds true, Liberals have a good shot at Hindmarsh and Forde, which ALP currently lead, and by this logic Liberals would hold unto all seats where they have a small lead such as Chisolm and Dunkley. This scenario gives ALP 70 seats (based on ABC projections which have them at 67 already won, plus winning Capricorn, Herbert and Cowan).
    Still unclear is Grey, because not many of the precincts have gotten to the TPP vote yet according to the AEC site. Not counting Grey we come to Liberals at 74 seats (nine of the still up for grabs, plus the 65 already won according to ABC).

[rob in cal]

  This reminds me of Austria, where postals went strongly  toward Van Der Bellen and pushed him over the top even though he lost the vote among the non-postals.

[rob in cal]

    If Flynn postal votes so far are any indication, it looks like it should be flipped from the ALP column to the close seat column.

[rob in cal]

  Ok, I'm happy now.  Flynn has been put in the seats in doubt category by ABC.

[rob in cal]

  My sense of the world being in balance is upset when a winner has been prematurely declared for a seat that will clearly be real close at the end.

[rob in cal]

  I think it would be fascinating to see an Australian election in which they use the Irish system of PR, which I guess is more or less the senate system, for the House of Reps.  Greens, Pauline Hansonites, maybe some Bob Katter proteges, Nick Xenophone people, Nationals competing everywhere, plus Libs and ALP all running in 5 seat disctricts all over the country.  That would be awesome.