Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[morgieb]

Wow, does Ipsos normally lean Gren? That's a good number for Di Natale et al.

Where would they target? I assume Sydney and Grayndler are safe ALP because of their heavyweight incumbents.

Given preferencing issues, I'd be targeting Liberal-held seats. Wentworth could be worth its time if the seat were open. Maybe one of those North Coast seats? Greens did pick up Ballina and (almost) Lismore in the recent state election....

[morgieb]

So.....shows on.

My predictions won't be up to later (probably not until June, uni's gonna be tough for the next month, although I always say that I'll study hard but I generally don't....), my current gut feel is that the Liberals hang on, though perhaps with a minority of the vote.

All states look pretty bloody interesting....

NSW: The state with the most marginal Liberal seats...and since about 1980 (when Victoria started to trend towards Labor's direction) generally the state that determines the election. Are Labor still on the nose here, especially in Sydney? How much impact will the almaganations have? My gut suggests that Labor will get a swing in the regions but it'll be more uneven in Sydney.

Victoria: Two factors make the nature of the state tough to call - the first is Turnbull, despite being from Sydney, is the least Sydney-style Liberal leader since at least John Hewson (i.e. he'll go down better than Howard and Abbott did in a more moderate and nobelise kind of state, which Victoria kinda is), and the second is the possibility of the Greens making huge inroads here. I'll say the swing will be below average, though some might disagree.

Queensland: Where do all those Palmer voters go? Do they go to a major party or do they vote for some sh**t like Katter or Hanson? This is important, because if they do go to Labor, then Shorten will probably win the election.

South Australia: Local issues are biting hard here, though the submarine decision might help mitigate the swing. Also...Nick Xenophon. He won't as well in the Lower House than in the Upper House, but his party will still probably get around 15% in the Lower House which will help decide the majority of seats with their preferences and maybe swings a seat or two if they finish in the Top 2.

Western Australia: Not a lot of marginal seats on paper, but the swing is apparently the biggest here following the decline of the mining boom and the unpopularity of the state Liberals, and there are a number of seats on very inflated margins. If the night is tight, we could be in for a wild ride in WA...perhaps deciding the election.

[morgieb]

First set of polls showing

Newspoll - 51-49 ALP
Galaxy - 50-50
Ipsos - 51-49 LNP (2013 Prefs) 50-50 (respondent allocated)

Anyhoo. I agree to an extent about the swing in NSW being uneven. I think there's every reason to suspect that the ALP could lose some seats that people see as a given, but then pick up some seats on higher margins that people aren't talking about. I think the within Sydney proper, the swing might be a little underwhelming, but probably swinging one or two, but I'd be looking at Macquarie and MacArthur, basically, the far-western fringe of Sydney. The regions seem more prime for bigger swings, I feel very confident about E-M flipping back, I'd be watching Page, Gilmore and the perennial Dobell/Robertson pairing.

VIC - This state will be interesting, as you say, Turnbull is certainly more palatable to Victorian swing voters than Abbott was, however, Shorten is from Victoria, so it'll be interesting to see that dynamic. The fundamental problem is that 2013 was likely the high water-mark for the Libs Federally. The ALP margins in their safest seats got hacked away at, add to this Victoria's very few genuine marginal seats and that might suggest a status quo result, where a couple of marginals flip and the ALP recovers its margins in its own seats. The Green vote will be IMPORTANT, but I don't think it's going to be the same factor that say, NXT will be in SA. I will say that the ALP is looking at seats beyond their expected targets, such as Dunkley, which they see as vulnerable with Bilson retiring.

SA - NXT and few viable marginals. That's all. Hindmarsh could flip back to the ALP and Briggs is very very vulnerable in Mayo... I'd also see the margin in Sturt, Pyne won't lose it, but seeing him sweat will be very enjoyable.

WA - Again, few marginals but I do think the politically toxic state government is a huge drag on their vote. The ALP have hurt themselves by clearing out their entire House representation (all three of them) removing their personal votes, but all of those seats are safe, I expect they can pick up the new seat (despite a 6%+ margin) and good chances at the two marginals.

QLD - This, to me, is the big game. How this state swings, will determine the outcome. There are at least 4-6 seats in SE Queensland that are absolutely at risk, Bonner/Brisbane/Petrie/Forde are the key four, they're also worried about Longman and Dickson. If you exclude the Sunshine and Gold Coasts (too many rich old people), the ALP is feeling good about their chances in EVERY seat along the Queensland Coast.

NT - Wazza will likely restore his margin in Lingiari and Solomon will almost certainly fall.

TAS - This state is going to be quite interesting. I have this weird feeling that Lyons on a small Lib margin could hold, while Bass and Braddon could EASILY fall to the ALP, despite bigger margins.

ACT - The only thing worth watching for us, is the impact on the second Senate seat with the new OPV voting options. The Greens will need a strong primary vote and be able to keep the Libs at 32% as a maximum.

Sounds like we agree with a lot

On the Green vote in Victoria, what I meant there was that there were quite a few seats where the Greens might win (Melbourne Ports, Higgins, Wills, Batman - I don't think they'll necessarily win them but it'll be interesting). Agree that the NXT will have more impact on seats in South Australia than the Greens do in Victoria, because of preferencing.

Also by EVERY seat on the Coast, I'm skeptical that Labor can pick up Hinkler, Wide Bay or Kennedy. I mean they might be tricky to call for a variety of reasons and Labor did really well in the state election there, but they're Queensland Coast seats and aren't really in play AFAIK.

On the ACT Senate, I think the new rules will make it harder for the Greens to pick up the second Senate seat. Because under the new rules they'll need to poll pretty close to the Liberals on first preference votes, and that seems unlikely AFAIC.

____________________________________

However, a poster on the Tally Room who seems have connections to the NSW Liberal Party and claims to have links to Liberal Party internals (I tend to believe him too, he's been doing it since the 2010 Federal Election, which seems to be too long to hold that kind of rouse) thinks that Labor aren't getting enough of a swing in NSW and Queensland to win.

[morgieb]

Internal seat polling, for those interested. Grains of salt are allowed.

Burt - 50/50

(for the following I have the Liberal figures first)

Eden Monaro - 46.9/53.1
Reid - 50.3/49.7
Banks - 50.9/49.1
Gilmore - 50.2/49.8
Bennelong - 51.6/48.5
Lindsay - 51.2/48.8
Hughes - 58.8/41.2
New England - 53.1/46.9 (Joyce ahead)

[morgieb]

In other news:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/liberals-ready-to-team-with-greens-to-oust-david-feeney-from-melbourne-seat-batman/news-story/0c295fbb20011e479dc64bbf811e0963

Probably won't mean all that much in Labor's marginals unless the Greens get a huge amount of the protest vote (generally Greens preferences flow heavily to Labor regardless of whether they direct preferences or run open tickets), but it's big news for the Labor/Greens contests. Greens may well be favourites now in Wills and Batman.

[morgieb]

Also hearing rumblings that Dunkley is very tight.

Dunkley is on my watchlist.

OOC, what is your watchlist?

[morgieb]

Anyone care to explain how the poor and the working class (whites), vote for? Just curious.

Urban = mostly Labor (but it's hard to say as most working class/poor living in the cities aren't Anglo AFAIK). There's been talk of trends towards the Liberals here, but that's mostly BS - those urban districts that are genuinely trending Liberal are more middle-class trade sort of occupations, aspirational sort of types.

Rural areas tend to be more Coalition though, but it depends on the industry they work in - mining areas tend to be pretty Labor-leaning, but those who are in retail/tourism, less so. That said, there's a difference between poor whites and working class whites in rural areas - the latter doesn't exist as much anymore (a lot of rural districts used to have an OK Labor vote but has declined dramatically due to the decline of unionisation in rural areas), poor whites are hard to say because so many poor whites in rural areas are retirees, but I think they tend to be low-information Coalition voters.

Someone else (Al? Polnut?) might know better, though.

[morgieb]

I wouldn't count out their votes heading to the various personality outfits led by present crossbenchers. People like Lazuras and Lambie have high name recognition compared to their faceless men colleagues in the Senate.

With regards to the upper house vote, yes I agree. Lazarus and Lambie are both considered decent chances of reelection in their respective states. But since they won't be running candidates in the lower house, that still begs the question of who those votes go to in those marginal seats.

Yeah, where their preferences go will decide the election IMO. Most of their voters were more protest votes AFAIK, so they're a wildcard. I can see the KAP making ground in North Queensland, outside of there...Greens might pick up a bit (good for Labor), and I can see One Nation making a slight comeback in Queensland at least.

[morgieb]

What does Palmer United even stand for? (Clive Palmer reminds me of Jim Justice for some reason but I don't know much about him)

Nothing.

[morgieb]

Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

[morgieb]

Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?

No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.

[morgieb]

OK time for my much vaunted predictions. Reserve the right to update if any new shocking information comes out.

I'll do it state by state, via a pendulum order (safest Coalition seat to safest Labor one).

Tonight, it's the turn of NSW. I'll do Coalition held seats first:

Farrer: based on Albury and the areas around the Murray River, this has safe batision of conservative strength throughout history. Obvious Liberal hold.

Mitchell: along with Parramatta this is the seat where the West meets the North, but this part of the world is both very rich and very religious, like all those Southern/Midwestern suburbs in the States. Unsurprisingly, it's the safest urban Coalition seat in the country.

Bradfield: yet another North Shore Liberal batisan. Uber-safe Liberal hold.

Parkes: although this seat contains Broken Hill, this is counteracted by how rural and conservative the rest of the seat is, and in any case Labor's vote in Broken Hill is nowhere near as good as what it was in the past. Obvious National hold.

New England: now here's something to get excited about. On paper it's another safe seat in rural NSW, but this one was won by Windsor in 2001 and held very easily before he retired in 2013. Sensing that the anger towards him and Oakeshott has declined as Abbott proved to be just as much of a failure as they predicted ( ), he's making a comeback this time around. It's hard to know what kind of popularity he still holds in the electorate until the votes get counted, but it's hard to figure out why he'd bother running again if he didn't think he could win. Against that, we also don't know how much the anger has subsided, and also the Nationals incumbent in Barnaby Joyce is very strong and has enough of a maverick image that will appeal him to voters that aren't 100% rusted on National partisans. Utlimately I predict Joyce narrowly holds.

Riverina: again another safe Nationals seat in rural NSW. Yawn....

Berowra: another safe North Shore seat for the Liberals, although it's probably less rusted on than say Bradfield or Mackellar. Hard to know what impact Ruddock's retirement has on the vote, we may see a swing but nowhere near enough to endanger the seat.

Wentworth: similar to the North Shore seats, although this one is south of Sydney Harbour. However, this seat is generally more progressive than the North Shore seats, and accordingly has produced some semi-vulnerable margins in the past. Turnbull largely corrected this in the last two elections, but since becoming PM he has lost his faux-progressive image, and accordingly there's rumours of a big swing being on here. It won't be enough - but it may push the margin below 10% and make the seat interesting when there's a by-election here.

Mackellar: Bronwyn Bishop's old seat, this is another uber-safe North Shore for the Liberals. I can't see her deselection having much of a impact here, it's hard to see Labor topping 35% in the 2PP vote even if it's an open seat.

Cook: like the North Shore seats in nature, but this one is based on the Sutherland Shire (and since the latest redistribution parts of the St George area). Still a safe Liberal seat, obvs.

North Sydney: similar to Wentworth in nature, though it's a bit safer as it doesn't really encroach on Labor territory. Should be another very solid Liberal hold, though the Greens vote here might be interesting to watch.

Warringah: Tony Abbott's seat. This seat has seen a high profile Independent challenge from television presenter James Mathison, but I'm skeptical of his appeal in this kind of district, especially given he has no real political track record. As funny as what it would be to see Abbott lose, it won't happen.

Calare: an interesting one. On paper a very safe Nationals seat, but there's a retiring MP here and the area has voted Labor in the past. So we might see a large-ish swing here, but not enough to truly put the seat in danger.

Lyne: another safe Nationals seat, I can't see any Rob Oakeshott's on the horizon here.

Hume: another safe rural/exurban seat, though this one is held by the Liberals. Doesn't matter anyway.

Cowper: another interesting one. Again on paper it's a safe National seat, but 1. the seat has been fairly marginal in the past (although that was before the seat added Port Macquarie) and 2. Rob Oakeshott, who is from Port Macquarie is attempting a comeback. It's hard to see his appeal here, but he should be advantaged by the fact that the parts of the district that soured on him the most were probably outside of Port Macquarie (and therefore still in Lyne), and the rest of Cowper doesn't seem so steadfastly partisan. I feel he may have left his run a late to win the district, but it'll give the incumbent far more of a fright than what he otherwise would've expected.

Hughes: the redistribution may not have changed the margin much, but it did turn the seat from a place where Labor can win in high water marks (case in point: under the old boundaries the 2PP vote was 50.5-49.5 after 2007) to a Shire based seat that is very much secure for the Liberals barring uber-landslides.

Bennelong: now we're getting to the seats that are at least halfway vulnerable. Although the seat is based on the North Shore there's a very high migrant vote here that tends to be less conservative than the white people in this area. Still Labor's win here in 2007 was somewhat atypical of the electorate as a whole, and it's hard to see Labor getting enough of a swing to put the seat at risk. At worst, it'll be in marginal territory.

Macquarie: the first properly marginal seat. Although during the Howard years it wasn't that marginal, it has become more so in recent years, perhaps because of demographic change in the Blue Mountains (Labor picked the state seat up pretty easily in the last state election, despite Labor still losing fairly comfortably), and possibly also because of the weakness of the sitting member. So it should be close, and certainly the most recent seat poll (yeah, I know but...) said that Labor would pick it up with a large swing. I still say the Liberals hang on, though it'll be close.

Gilmore: similar case to Macquarie. Again was once upon a time safe-ish, the new sitting member is much less regarded than the old one, and she has been in the news for less than positive reasons. I think demographically it's a bit of a reach for Labor to win the seat unless they win the election, especially given it no longer has Shellharbour, but it'll be close.

Reid: was a very safe Labor seat, but redistributions has seen it morph into the old seat of Lowe, and demographic change amongst the Parramatta River has seen the shoreline area of the seat become quite Liberal-leaning. Add that Turnbull (allegedly) is doing better in urban areas and that the local MP seems to be pretty popular and moderate and I think the Liberals should hang on here despite the Labor candidate having a profile in the more conservative part of the seat (read: he is, or was the Mayor of Canada Bay).

Macarthur: was a fairly safe Liberal seat, but a redistribution has cut out the exurbs in Camden and replaced them with Labor-leaning areas north of Campbelltown. Given that the margins in both here and Werriwa are somewhat deflated due to a lack of a real campaign in the former (AFAIK) and the parachuting of Laurie Ferguson instead of a local in the latter, the fact that the state seats that make up the district had pretty solid margins for Labor in the state election, and that Labor chose (seemingly) a well-regarded local candidate, it's hard to see the Liberals holding here. If Labor can't win this seat in its current form, they may as well give up.

Robertson: the more conservative of the two Central Coast seats, but both will always be marginal territory. There's talk that internal polling here has Labor in a seat-winning position, but a sophmore surge here is likely and O'Neill seemed a pretty strong candidate for Labor that won't be there this time around. Add that Dobell is apparently not quite in the bag for Labor and the Liberals should be favoured here. I suppose the vote of Lawrie McKinna in the last election may make it tough to predict, but I don't know which way his voters leant.

Page - another rural seat held by the Nationals, but this one goes deep into hippie/New Age territory around Byron Bay. This seat was made a bit safer by the redistribution, but Saffin is recontesting which will hurt Hogan's sophmore surge. Add that Labor appear to be doing better in regional territory and I think Labor pick up this seat.

Lindsay: everyone's favourite bellweather, this has caused Labor to obsess far too much over Western Sydney and get in touch with their values, mate. Again, a sophmore surge here is likely and it'll be compounded by Bradbury not recontesting, but there's some intra-Coalition tensions stroked by Fiona Scott jettisioning support for Abbott in the spill and claims by party members that she only won because of Abbott's support that could hurt the Liberals here, and also a recent poll that had Labor up by a comfortable margin. Still think the Liberals hold, however.

Eden-Monaro: everyone's other favourite bellweather and one that has gone to whoever's won government since 1972, this seat has been made a fair bit more secure by the redistribution, but Mike Kelly is recontesting and all signs suggest that he still has a solid profile in the district. Add that Peter Hendy has been a very high-profile Turnbull backer and therefore has lost some footsoliders due to the Turnbull/Abbott stoush, and also that he hasn't worked the district all that well, and Labor should win it back.

Banks - was once a Labor seat, but some demographic change around the Georges River and redistributions moving it closer towards the St George area has made the seat more marginal. It finally flipped at the last election, and a sophmore surge and general appeal towards Turnbull in inner urban suburbs should help the Liberals here, as well as the Asian vote (which is hugely influential here) is apparently leaning the sitting MP's way. There also appeas to be less interest here than in the outer suburban/rural districts. Accordingly I think the Liberals hold.

[morgieb]

I'll do the rest of NSW and possibly Victoria later today (i.e. when I actually wake up). CBF doing this sort of thing at 1:30 in the morning.

[morgieb]

Cheers, Vosem.

Didn't do any yesterday due to the Brexit amongst other things. I'll only put up the rest of NSW today cos I've got work later tonight. I'll do Victoria and maybe Queensland tomorrow.

Anyway, it's hard to tell the impact that the Brexit has on the election - it could well have none, but it may also be Turnbull's Tampa. Will wait and see. We probably won't know until Monday at the earliest.

Dobell - was won by the Liberals at the last election, but only by a narrow margin and despite all the controversy around Craig Thomson. You'd expect the seat to be won by Labor especially after the redistribution has made it a notional Labor seat, but the polling hasn't been so great for Labor here. It's also the sort of district that has given strong sophmore surges. I'll still predict a Labor hold/gain, though I could easily see a seat like this giving Labor a lot of strife on election night.

Paterson - was a safe-ish Liberal seat, but a redistribution has replaced Liberal-leaning areas on the northern side of Port Stephens with Labor-leaning areas around Maitland and Kurri Kurri. Accordingly this seat is now notionally Labor held and the sitting MP has seen the writing on the wall and retired. A straightforward Labor gain now, and this seat will probably not be of much interest in future elections.

Parramatta - generally is close but Labor usually have a slight edge here. It should hold given a swing back towards them but there's a bit of talk of it being in play and with better candidate selection/luck it may well have flipped in the past. Still say Labor hold although I can't help but feel long-term this seat will trend Liberal.

Richmond - the Vermont of Australia. OK not quite but it was once a very safe Nationals seat but since the hippies moved to Byron Bay and the population in Tweed exploded it has become a lot more marginal and now left-leaning. There's talk that the Greens are doing very well here, but the swing required to see them overtake Labor is pretty high and therefore Labor should be secure enough. Might become vulnerable if the seat were to be open for some reason though, however.

Kingsford Smith - was once a very safe Labor seat, but demographic change has eroded Labor's margin here somewhat. Won't flip this election but long-term will probably turn blue.

Greenway - interesting. Is Labor held by a reasonably comfortable margin but there was the Jaymes Diaz factor - after 2010 this was horrificly marginal. This time the Liberals have a stronger candidate and any personal vote for Rowland is already built in. I'll stick with a Labor hold as the climate won't allow a big enough swing for it to flip, but I think there'll be a swing against Labor here.

Barton - it was already hard enough for the Liberals to hold under the old boundaries. The new ones make this an easy Labor pickup, and the seat will be a very safe one from now on.

McMahon - seat-wise this was pretty iffy before the last election, but Bowen hung on with a reasonably comfortable margin. Traditionally this seat is pretty safe so there won't be much threat barring a 2013-like situation happening again.

Hunter - a safe Labor seat in the eponymous region. There are factors that might make it interesting - it's more regional than Newcastle and Shortland so there could be a trend in the future against Labor, but only in really bad elections does this area look vunerable. In any case, the Liberals aren't faring too well in the Hunter anyway.

Werriwa - ought to be secure, but there is a bit of talk that the Liberals are pumping resources into this seat. I have my doubts but the Liberal candidate here is quite well-regarded in the seat and popular.....

Whitlam - a safe Labor seat in the Illawarra that is even safer in practice as there's a lot of conservative areas that will always get outweighed by Wollongong.

Shortland - another safe Labor seat in the Hunter.

Watson - this seat was once competitive once upon a time, but boundary and demographic changes had make this look secure. Would expect a fairly big swing towards Labor given how safe it was pre-2010, too.

Newcastle - another safe Labor seat in the Hunter. It has occassionally been semi-marginal, but it's unlikely to ever be in serious danger.

Chifley - what Western Sydney actually is rather than Lindsay. Safe Labor hold, obvously.

Blaxland - another safe Labor seat in the battler heartland of Western Sydney.....

Cunningham - this is also (shock horror) a safe Labor seat in a mid-sized industrial city, except this time it's in Woolongong rather than Newcastle. The Greens poll OK here, but their 2002 by-election win was a bit of a fluke and in general they don't poll well enough to overtake the Liberals let alone put Labor in danger.

Fowler - another very safe Labor seat, despite the redistribution taking out large parts of Liverpool....

Sydney - on paper this could be at threat to the Greens but 1. the Liberal vote here is stronger than in say Grayndler and Batman and 2. they won't get Liberal preferences anyway. It might become interesting if Plibersek was to retire as there is some serious demographic change going on here, but realistically she has the seat for as long as she wants it.

Grayndler - a far bigger threat for Labor than Sydney, despite it looking safe on paper, especially given the Liberal vote here is smaller. Were the Greens getting Liberal preferences Albanese might be in trouble (though I'd still back him to survive), but as it is he's popular enough that he'll be fine. Once he retires though...even Liberal preferences may not be enough to save Labor.

So 3 gains to Labor in NSW - Page, Eden-Monaro and Macarthur. Several seats to watch here, though election-wise it might not be quite as interesting as Queensland.


As for the Senate, I'll predict 5 Coalition, 5 Labor, 1 Greens and 1 LDP. Coalition should get 5 quotas, Labor 4 and the Greens 1 straight off the bat. The Greens could easily pick up two, but their vote in NSW has never been great so I think the 5th Labor stays narrowly ahead of the second Green. Leyonhjelm probably has the edge for the last seat over other minor-right candidates, as they appear to be getting both Labor and Liberal preferences, and I think Leyonhjelm has more of a profile than other assorted minor right-wing candidates due to the fact that he's a Senator. Hard to know what kind of impact libertarianism has in NSW, though.

[morgieb]

Grayndler? Also isn't losing it.

lol typo, meant Macarthur. Especially given it reads as Labor is gaining it - how can they gain a seat already own?

[morgieb]

Anyway, Victoria Coalition seats:

Mallee - the safest Coalition seat in the country. Obvious Nationals hold.

Murray - also an extremely safe Coalition seat, but this one is open and as it's in the bush we have a three-cornered contest on our hands. For this reason it's tough to gague - on the one hand the Nationals picked a stronger candidate IMO and at the state level the area generally elects National MP's, but on the other hand Labor are directing preferences towards the Liberal and the outgoing MP is a Liberal. Whether Labor can direct preferences that easily though is another question - IIRC Labor directed preferences towards the Liberal rather than the National in Mallee at the last election but preferences ran about 50/50 for both parties, and also you'd imagine in a rural seat there'll be a lot of very small booths without proper HTV staff. Will tentatively predict a Liberal hold, because I'm generally conservative with my predictions and the Nationals hasn't had a lot of luck with picking up ex-Liberal seats in the past. In the end though this doesn't matter as both parties go into a Coalition anyway.

Gippsland - another very safe regional Coalition seat, this one held by the Nationals. There are some Labor-leaning areas in the Latrobe Valley in this seat where Labor have underachieved in the last 10-15 years IMO, but they don't have anywhere enough influence here to flip the seat.

Menzies - the safest Coalition seat in Melbourne. Although Kevin Andrews has a high-profile challenge in Stephen Mayne, he has generally struggled to gain traction in his previous runs for electoral office and he'd be lucky to gain 10% of the vote.

McMillan - was once Labor-leaning, but the moving of Traralgon and Morwell to Gippsland and the decline of Labor support in the Latrobe Valley has hurt hard here. Like Gippsland an area like this voting relatively atypically for the demographics could lead to an above average swing here, but it 1. won't be enough to flip the seat and 2. will probably be counteracted by the CFA issue anyway.

Flinders - like most of the Victorian Liberal seats they generally aren't held by overwhelming margins compared to say NSW, but they are still safe.

Kooyong - ground zero for blue ribbon-values. Safe Liberal hold then, obviously.

Goldstein - another safe Liberal seat in Melbourne, though this one has a retiring MP. Shouldn't matter anyway, Labor will be lucky to even push this towards marginal territory.

Wannon - another pretty safe Liberal seat, though unlike the previous two this one is in regional territory so behaves more like Indi and Gippsland for example. Doesn't really matter for the purpose of this analysis though....

Higgins - on paper looks safe, but the seat also overlaps with Prahran which was famously won by the Greens after the last election and also has a high-profile Greens candidate. I'm skeptical of an upset happening here though as O'Dwyer won with a majority of the primary vote and probably needs to be taken down to ~45% to be in danger of losing the seat. So while there's room for a swing here, there's too many rusted on Liberal voters to see the seat flip...especially given I see (like most of Melbourne) Turnbull having more appeal than Abbott.

Aston - has been marginal in the past, but even in the high water mark of 2010 (in Victoria anyway) it failed to flip despite a retiring MP. Should be reasonably secure, then.

Casey - another reasonably safe Liberal seat in Melbourne, though there's some some strong Labor/Greens booths in the hinterland here. They aren't enough to fundamentally change the nature of the seat, however.

Dunkley - now we get to the marginal seats. On paper it's not quite on the first list of marginals likely to flip and Labor hasn't won here since 1993 when the boundaries were quite a bit more favourable. However the long-term sitting MP is retiring and therefore we could see an above-average swing here. The seat was apparently very close at the start of the campaign but has started to solidify for the Liberals. Will still be close, but I'll tip a Liberal hold. Probably one of those seats which goes to whoever wins government.

La Trobe - an odd seat based on outer Melbourne exurbia and Blue Mountains-esque treechanger communes. Usually the seat is Coalition-leaning, but Labor still picked it up in 2010. Still that election was very good for Labor in Victoria, so it's hard to see it swinging back given that I suspect the Liberals will (relatively) perform better in Victoria than what they have in the past unless Labor wins government. The CFA issue can't be helping either given there's a lot of bushland here as well...

Corangamite - the Victorian Richmond, though unlike Richmond the seat is still overall Coalition-leaning, in the sense that it was once safe Coalition but has flipped due to growth in a mid-sized city (Geelong/Gold Coast) and seachangers in the rural areas. A sophmore surge can be expected for Henderson here, and again the CFA issue will bite here. Should be a Liberal hold, then.

Deakin - the most marginal Liberal seat. Generally very homogenous and can be considered a bellweather seat. Given that I suspect the Liberals hold onto government, the presence of a sophmore surge here, and that Turnbull should have more appeal to Melburnians than Abbott ever did, the Liberals should hang on here.

[morgieb]

I keep thinking the CFA thing is more of a 'beltway' fascination... I don't see this being a decisive issues one way or another.

Yeah that's a fair call, but it might still swing 1-2% of the vote in key marginal electorates. I think most of these seats would probably stay Liberal anyway so yeah the effect probably isn't all that strong.

[morgieb]

McEwen - interesting one. The 2011 redistribution moved this to safe-ish territory on paper, but a big swing at the last election corrected this. It's hard to see the Liberals winning a seat they don't already have barring unusual circumstances, but the Liberals were apparently the favourites with the bookies before about April....then there's also the CFA issue. Whether that has a serious effect is another question altogether. In any case, it's also cancelled out by the fact that the Liberal candidate has been mired in a sh**t load of controversy. Labor should hold, though the story may be different with a better Liberal candidate.

Bendigo - although it is marginal, if the Liberals couldn't win this with an open seat in a climate like 2013, they likely never will. There's talk about this being one of the CFA seats, but I doubt that it will see the seat flip.

Chisholm - more interesting here. Was generally a Liberal-leaning marginal before 1998, when the then sitting MP Michael Woolridge defected to a safer seat and Labor promptly won it. Since then they've generally held it down to Anna Burke's strong personal vote, but now she is retiring. And the area still often votes Liberal at the state level. Were there not a large swing expected to Labor I'd call it a Liberal gain. Ultimately I'll play it safe and call it a Labor hold, but this along with Greenway and maybe Dobell has to be one of the Liberal's best chances of gaining a seat off Labor.

Bruce - a similar story to Chisholm on paper, being it a marginal-ish seat having a retiring MP. The Liberal candidate here is also a bit more high-profile than in Chisholm. There are however key differences. Firstly, the style of seat is different. While Chisholm is much like Deakin in that it is very homogenous swinging territory (except for the Oakleigh pocket), Bruce combines reasonably solid Liberal territory around Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill with very good Labor booths around Dandenong. For matter it is a bit safer than Chisholm usually. Secondly, I have doubts that Griffin has as much personal popularity as Burke did. Accordingly I think Labor have an easier time here than in Chisholm, although both seats will be tight.

Jagajaga - ought to be secure. There was some talk that this seat might be in danger, but that might have to wait until Macklin retires.

Melbourne Ports - this is interesting. On paper Danby looks reasonably secure, especially once you take into account that Melbourne Ports tends to be pretty inelastic. But his hyperventilating over the Greens could easily see his support on the left erode...and while I think he'll have enough support around Caufield to survive, if he were to finish 3rd on the primary vote I think the Liberals might cause an upset. Once he retires I'm pretty sure Labor lose the seat, whether it'll be to the Greens or the Liberals is another question.

Isaacs - looks pretty secure in my eyes, although the Skyrail issue may be pissing off some punters on the bayside. It's a seat that could be more marginal with boundary changes, the core of the seat tends to be pretty swingy but is counteracted by the Dandenong booths.

Ballarat - should be pretty secure. Was once Liberal-leaning about 20 years ago, but since the 1999 state election the Ballarat (and Bendigo) areas have been far more Labor-leaning.

Hotham - should be safe, especially with the new MP's personal vote.

Corio - Geelong may have been competitive back in the day (although the better Liberal booths in Geelong are in Corangamite), but it's pretty secure for the ALP now.

Holt - a safe seat for Labor, though demographically if this was in Sydney I could imagine this being vulnerable in the right circumstances.

Batman - interesting. Was once very safe for Labor but the Greens vote has exploded here, especially since Martin Ferguson's retirement. And Feeney's misadventures can't be helping the Labor vote. I think the Greens gain a pluraity of primary votes, but I also think that Liberal preferences will help get Labor over the line. Will still be closer than it needs to be, and neither result will really surprise me.

Maribyrnong - Bill Shorten's seat. It's as safe as you'd expect, although it has enough middle-class territory to make it more marginal that some of the other Western Melbourne seats.

Lalor - Julia Gillard's old seat. Again it's as safe as you'd expect, although only recently has it become uber-safe for Labor.

Calwell - another safe Western Melbourne seat for Labor. Stop me if you think you've heard this one before....

Scullin - as above

Wills - similar case to Batman. It's a bit safer for Labor on paper, but that is down to Batman being open at the last election and Wills not being so. While Labor's candidate has not quite had the same misadventures than Feeney has had, he did get the gig in a questionable preselection. With Liberal preferences Labor should still hold, but if the Liberals had preferenced the Greens I think this seat would've flipped.

Gorton - in practice, is probably Labor's safest seat in the country (Gellibrand and Grayndler have bigger margins, but both (obviously the latter moreso than the former) have Green threats which Gorton doesn't)

Gellibrand - the safest Labor seat in Victoria on paper. In practice you could see a rising Greens vote like one that we've seen in Batman and Wills did, but I doubt it will be anywhere near enough to put Labor in much danger. Maybe one to keep an eye on in the future.

Indi - in general Independents tend to get large swings on re-election as long as they've worked the district well, which McGowan I think has. She should hold on easily and get a big swing towards her. Nationals to finish 2nd too, because Mirabella is an awful candidate and their own one seems a pretty solid one, perhaps giving them an advantage here if McGowan were to vacate.

Melbourne - if Bandt was able to hold this on re-election despite a bad preference flow, this time around he shouldn't really be in danger. Indeed it feels like most of the interest for the Greens are in Batman, Wills and Higgins.

So no change in Victoria. Probably won't pan out that way, but meh. If it's an above-average night for the Liberals, this is probably the state to look out for against the grain gains.


My senate predictions are 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 for Derryn Hinch. There should be 4 quotas for Labor and the Coalition and 1 for the Greens straight off the bat, and the Coalition and Greens ought to be close enough to another one to get enough preferences to put them over the top for a final seat. I'll take Derryn Hinch for the final seat - him getting the donkey vote (i.e. the first spot on the ballot) will help especially given he's a well-known figure and he'll get preferences from both sides of the aisle that will help his position. Sex Party also a possible for that final seat, ditto the 5th Labor candidate. It doesn't sound like Ricky Muir or John Madigan will go anywhere.

[morgieb]

I don't get why the Nationals have a candidate in my electorate when there was already a Liberal (Drum vs. McGauchie), because all that is gonna do is make the seat more marginal, and vulnerable, which is fine for me, since I would like to see another independent in the house (See: Fern Summer)

Because that area is traditionally National territory and the sitting MP (Sharman Stone) is retiring. When rural seats are open/Labor held three-cornered contests are quite common as long as the voting system is CPV.

You have my sympathies for living in Murray, btw

[morgieb]

Voted today ftr. Gave my first preference to the Sex Party in the Lower House and the Science Party in the Upper House. Preferenced the Greens over Labor in both houses, and of course both far ahead of the Liberals (although I didn't put them last, that honour went to the Christian Democrats and Rise Up Australia)

[morgieb]

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

I mean, I don't think Labor will win more seats that the LNP but I really do think this is line-ball and there are a lot of variables ....

On the flipside, Labor's messaging strikes me as a side that thinks they're gonna lose. But I do agree that I'm not convinced this election is 100% predictable.

[morgieb]

Sorry for the delay, just haven't built up the motivation for stuff like this.

I'll do Queensland today, rest will have to wait until tomorrow as I've got work this evening.

Maranoa - most of regional Queensland behaves quite a bit differently to the rest of rural Australia, perhaps due to the frequency of mid-sized industrial towns and heavy mining influence. Unlike say Flynn though Maranoa is mostly rural grazing farmland. Accordingly it's a very safe seat, although with Bruce Scott retiring a swing might be expected.

Moncreiff - part of the Liberal heartland that is the Gold Coast. And unlike other parts of the Gold Coast this part of the world didn't show much inclination to swing to Labor during the last Queensland government. Safe LNP hold, obviously.

Groom - another bit of LNP heartland in a non-Brisbane, non-industrial city. Might be worth watching the swing given that Labor are doing better in regional Queensland than in Brisbane and the fact that the seat is open.

Fadden - more LNP heartland on the Gold Coast. Unlike Moncreiff this part of the Gold Coast is a bit more mortgage belty so it could be interesting if there was a popular + entrenched Labor government running for re-election. Of course, this doesn't apply to this election.

Wide Bay - looks secure on paper, but Warren Truss's retirement gives an extra X-factor to the district. Add a general trend towards Labor in regional areas and there could be a swing here. Won't be enough to endanger the district though.

McPherson - essentially identical to Fadden in nature. Even with the bit about being potentially swingy in the right circumstances.

Wright - looks secure enough. Should be an LNP hold.

Fisher - tricky. On the one hand, the sitting MP Mal Brough was forced to retire for his role in the Peter Slipper scandal. Against that, there was a large PUP vote here in the last election and it's hard to tell where that goes. History suggests that this is secure enough, but there might be a bit of a swing here.

Hinkler - interesting. On the one hand, there is a new sitting MP here that should get a single sophmore surge. On the other hand, you also have to factor in a high PUP vote....and there aren't a lot of populist right parties running here. Labor also got a big swing in this area at the state election. So while there's room for a swing, I don't think Labor picks this up.

Bowman - given that the swing towards Labor isn't very high in Brisbane, this looks reasonably secure. The seat has trended right in recent years in part due to a redistribution, but also some increased affluence in the south coast of Brisbane.

Ryan - the sort of seat that doesn't swing all that much in either direction due to Left support near Brisbane combined with leafy Liberal heartland out west. LNP hold, then.

Dawson - now we're at the seats that could be interesting in the right circumstances. Like most of rural Queensland the economy isn't great, and Christensen is hardly a good sitting MP. So there is definitely room for a swing. Whether the swing will be big enough in this climate though is another question. I say no, but if Labor get strong preferences from the KAP/GLT, then watch out.

Longman - again another seat that could be hit by a potential Labor tide in regional Australia. Roy doesn't seem to be particularly popular here, and much of the populist right vote seem to be directing preferences towards Labor. LNP results here in the state election was also pretty grim. Ultimately I think that he'll survive, but it will be tight.

Dickson - I'd love to see Peter Dutton lose. While I think Dickson looks safer on paper than parts of rural Queensland, the swings at the state election was huge in this part of the world, and Dutton is a bit polarising. I think this seat will be tough to swing, but if Labor do better than expected, you never know.

Flynn - much of what I've written about Dawson and Hinkler can be written here. A fair few minor right parties could be solid votes which will hurt the LNP as well, and it's a bit more marginal than those two. And apparently Labor seem confident here. I'm actually gonna call an against-the-grain Labor gain, my bolter for this election.

Herbert - similar case to other parts of Queensland outside of Brisbane - crap economy, not a great LNP sitting member, and the potential for a large third-party vote. Against that though it's been pretty stubbornly LNP since it flipped in 1996, and I think a Townsville-based economy might hold up better than say Rockhampton. Narrow LNP hold, then.

Leichhardt - should be competitive, but Entsch is popular and a good fit for the seat. There have also been some controversies with the local Labor party up in FNQ. Will probably stay LNP then.

Forde - interesting. On paper less likely to swing than the seats north of Brisbane, but it might swing more than the seats closest to Brisbane. Two factors make this hard to predict - 1. the impact of parachuting Peter Beattie here at the last minute, and 2. the high PUP vote here. I think the LNP hang on....just.

Brisbane - well the sitting MP is retiring and the current side is marginal. Looks good for Labor on paper but it's also the sort of seat where Turnbull could have strong appeal and it'll be hard to swing the Clayfield area (without it presumably Labor would win this rather easily). Given that Labor are apparently struggling in Brisbane, LNP hold.

Bonner - an above average PUP vote in an urban district makes this tough to predict as where the vote goes could decide the seat. Against that the Liberals are holding up well in Brisbane seemingly and this part of the world is trending LNP. I'll say an LNP hold.

Capricornia - should be an easy ALP gain on paper given the margin, the  seats history and a general Labor trend in regional Queensland but the local wisdom and polling seems to suggest that the sitting MP is holding up pretty well here. Still say the ALP pick it up but you never know.

Petrie - again looks too marginal to hold, but the sitting MP should expect a sophmore surge and the (comparatively) small swing here in the 2010 election suggests that D'Ath had a strong personal vote here....and now that's gone. There's also the issue of an expected below average swing in Brisbane for Labor. I'll still predict an ALP gain, but it definitely seems like a potential 'cold-sick' kind of hold if the election is underwhelming for Labor.

[morgieb]

Lilley - tough to gauge. Seems like it should be secure on paper but there isn't much of a swing in Brisbane and Swan seems to be a bit toxic in parts of Queensland due to the Rudd-Gillard thing. Labor should still hold but the swing may be subdued. I don't get why he's still running given that his frontbench career is over....

Moreton - more interesting. Was surprised Perrett held on here in 2013, although the swing in Queensland was inconsistent. If the night is good for the LNP it may be a surprise against-the-grain gain, but I feel given a general trend towards Labor the seat shouldn't swing that much.

Griffith - Kevin Rudd's old seat. Looks secure on paper but he was a popular local MP and Labor have apparently spent money here. Notably the by-election result wasn't great for Labor, although that could be because it was a Labor MP retiring rather than a Liberal MP. Probably should be a hold but demographically it's not too bad for the LNP (despite the presence of South Brisbane/West End which is traditonally latte leftie territory) so it could surprise.

Oxley - should be an easy Labor hold, but the preselection of the new Labor MP was dodgy and it may keep the swing down. There is also a bit of gentrification further east in the seat and therefore some middle-class areas. Trouble is many in the LNP were excited about their candidate here at the last election....yet Ripoll still held easily enough.

Rankin - easy Labor hold, especially given that the sitting MP will gain a sophmore surge. The Liberal candidate may have been a former state MP, but she seems a pretty weak candidate in practice.

Blair - while this seat was once Liberal-leaning, redistributions have made this a bonafide Labor seat. Labor hold.

Fairfax - with Palmer not recontesting, this should be easily return to the LNP's hands. It almost certainly would've even if he did run again.

Kennedy - was very close at the last election, but discontent amongst rural Independents seems to be receding after the Rudd-Gillard government were voted out and the LNP's stocks in rural Queensland are declining. Katter should hold comfortably.

So 3 Labor pickups, Flynn, Petrie and Capricornia. Lots could be close, and might flip if Labor spring a surprise, but equally there's a couple of Labor seats in Queensland that have potential cold-sick potential if the Coalition do better than expected. In any case, this is the state to watch.


My Senate predictions are 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 Green, Glenn Lazarus and Pauline Hanson. The majors should hit the stated quotas or go close to it pretty easily. As for the last two seats, Hanson's popularity seems to have surged a bit since heading back to Queensland and One Nation, and add a lower quota and the potential for exhausted votes meaning that she'll get a better deal with preferences, and she should be back. As for Lazarus, he has a high profile due to his previous occupation and him being a sitting Senator, and he seems to be getting a good deal with preferences. KAP and the ALA could also compete for the last seat, as might the second Green. So Queensland could be a total lottery on election night, second only to South Australia.

[morgieb]

In that hung parliament, I see Turnbull easily getting across the line however.

Yeah. But a hung parliament with Turnbull in charge might be even better for Labor than Labor winning IMO. Would basically guarantee Labor win in 2019 and the Liberals economic advantage will IMO deteriorate.

[morgieb]

WA

Curtin - Julie Bishop's seat. This is like the North Shore of Sydney, except in West Perth. The only interest here is if Labor finish 2nd or the Greens do.

Forrest - despite Bunbury being reasonably large, it still leans Liberal...and that's not even talking about the rual areas. Add that Labor-voting Collie was redistributed out of the seat and this is safe Liberal. Might see a swing like most of WA given the slowing economy here, though.

Tangney - like Curtin, although this is south of the river. Jensen may be recontesting as an Independent but he'll do jack sh**t because he was deselected and seemingly has little profile in this electorate. Safe Liberal hold.

Moore - although Goodenough is seen as a bit of dud here, this is still a solidly Liberal area. Won't be interesting.

Canning - this would've been interesting under the old boundaries given the death of Don Randall, a general swing in WA and this seat being traditionally vulnerable, but despite the redistribution cutting the margin here, in practice the current boundaries are far safer for the Liberals here. Could see a large swing but the Liberals should hold.

Pearce - one to watch, given the swing in WA and the margin being under 10%. But Labor didn't pick this up even at their peak in WA and Porter can expect a sophmore surge. Liberals will hold but I think this will be in marginal territory.

Stirling - should've been competitive given Labor held this in the Howard years, but Labor took too long to select a candidate, suggesting they aren't taking this seriously. Liberals will hold, then.

Swan - will be tight, Labor are improving in WA and this has been held by Labor in the recent past. Ultimately I think the Liberals will hold through incumbency, but it'll be close.

Burt - might not be on the first list of marginals, but there isn't a sitting MP here, a general swing to Labor in WA, and at the state level the area is pretty good for Labor without Don Randall's personal vote. Labor's most likely pickup in WA and I say they pick this up.

Hasluck - a marginal seat in WA that's made safer by the redistribution but looks more marginal given the general swing in WA. Again I think incumbency might be enough for Wyatt to hold here, especially given the swing is less vicious than in WA.

Cowan - with the redistribution this is now Liberal's most marginal seat in WA. With a swing back to Labor this will be very tough to hold, but Simpkins despite his gaffes seems to be popular in this division and Aly while being a strong candidate might have a profile that proves a liability in this outer surburban division. I'll still predict a Labor hold but neither result will surprise.

Durack - while the area has been pretty good for the WA Nationals at the local level, this wasn't that close in 2013 and Labor are directing preferences to the Liberals. Add that Labor could easily finish 2nd here given that Labor are getting a swing in WA, the fact that Labor have a solid candidate (on paper) here, and a declining economy over in WA and rural areas (giving Labor a swing), and the Liberals should hold because Labor finish second.

O'Connor - tricky. While it was close in 2013 in terms of the 2PP, the gap between the Liberal and the WA National was reasonably large. Given a sophmore surge for the sitting MP and Labor directing preferences towards the Liberal rather than the Nationals, the Liberals should hold.

Perth - should be a Labor hold given that the swing in WA for Labor is above average, but a retiring MP could keep the swing down.

Brand - see Perth.

Fremantle - preselection dramas could see some movement towards the Greens here, but 1. the Liberal vote here is too strong and 2. much of the seat in the south of the seat is pretty bad for the Greens. Also the new Labor candidate won the preselection here but was vetoed by head office. So Labor hold.

Labor pickup Burt and Cowan, then. Depending on the night I think Labor could gain 1-5 seats here though depending on how vicious the swing is. One to watch, especially if the early results are close.

Senate predictions are 5 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 National. IMO this state is the most predictable in this result, only real question is if the Liberals pick up 5 or 6 seats here (they'll probably pick up the last seat off the Nationals given a swing to Labor here).