Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Talleyrand]

To help clear up the general election polling and stuff on the other thread, I thought we may as well start this now, since we already had one of these when Julia Gillard was Prime Minister at an earlier point in her tenure.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/five-reasons-why-tony-abbott-could-call-an-early-electionand-five-reasons-why-it-may-not-happen-20150626-ghyb1o.html

The election is due by January 14, 2017, but it will be held before then, most likely in 2016, but there has been speculation that Abbott may call an early election (as has almost every first-term government in the postwar era).

Nearly all recent polls have the Labor opposition 52-48 ahead in the TPP, which suggests this election is poised to be a tossup.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll has released its last ever quarterly report and it continues to show some improbable numbers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/06/30/morgan-53-5-46-5-to-labor/

[Talleyrand]

IIRC, they have multiple triggers.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-18/abbott-government-given-first-double-dissolution-trigger/5532358

The biggest reason, as has been pointed out earlier, that I think an early election is unlikely, is that with a halved quota, you'd see another spate of terrible cross-bench Senators with a double dissolution.

He won't do a House-only election, and the earliest he can have a regularly scheduled House/Senate election is August 6, 2016.

Another reason, although less important, is the fact that there are ongoing redistributions in WA and NSW that won't end until early next year. If Abbott does do a DD, this is what would happen.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/07/double-dissolutions-and-the-redistribution-timetable.html

[Talleyrand]

Does Australia have a site like ThreeHundredEight.com for Canada and 538 for the US?

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/

This is probably the closest you'll get to one. There are also a lot of interesting links on the sidebar, including Antony Green's blog.

[Talleyrand]

Former New England Independent MP Tony Windsor is considering a political comeback.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-09/tony-windsor-considers-political-comeback-in-light-of-mine/6606022

[Talleyrand]

I know it's Morgan... but it now has Labor's lead whittling down to 51-49.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/07/13/morgan-51-49-to-labor/

Two ReachTel polls also show the Liberals doing well in the northern Tasmania seats of Bass and Lyons, which were gained from Labor incumbent in 2013. Interestingly enough, the Morgan poll had Labor ahead 58-42 in the Tasmania TPP (although much of that is probably based in Denison, where Wilkie is safe, and their only seat right now, Franklin). Then again, constituency polling is a wreck.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Talleyrand]

Abbott is visiting South Australia heavily and making multiple funding promises in midst of horrible polling in the state, including a $40 billion shipbuilding contract.

These are the three seats the Liberals are scared of losing.

Hindmarsh (1.9%) - This will be a rematch of 2013, with former 3 term Labor MP Steve Georganas recontesting the seat he lost to first time MP Matt Williams. An ACTU poll back in 2013 had the incumbent holding up fairly well, but if statewide polling is correct, this is the lowest-hanging fruit for the ALP. It would be an extremely poor result if they didn't win it back.

Boothby (7.1%) - Labor whittled down the margin in this seat in five consecutive elections to less than 1% in 2010 when they were led by hometown girl Julia Gillard, but it bounced back heavily to longtime MP Andrew Southcott in 2013 amid Labor's election disaster that year. Southcott is now a leading contender for Speaker, and this could make the race for this seat (already set to be close) pretty exciting, especially if popular independent Nick Xenophon runs a candidate here and directs preferences against the Liberals. Labor is running their unsuccessful candidate in the Davenport by-election earlier this year here.

Sturt (10.3%) - Chris Pyne's seat should be safe, but it has been marginal before, including when it almost fell to Labor in 2007. The biggest danger here would be if the Xenophon Group stood a candidate here. A union poll had him heading for a heavy defeat in that case, although otherwise he should be o.k.

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/07/29/pyne-rejects-polling-showing-he-may-lose-seat.html

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is out.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/09/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-8/

TPP

Labor - 54% (+1)
Liberal/National - 46% (-1)

Primary

Liberal/National - 39% (-1)
Labor - 39% (0)
Greens - 13% (+1)
Others - 9% (0)

PPM

Abbott - 38% (-1)
Shorten - 38% (+2)

Abbott Satisfaction

Approve - 33% (0)
Disapprove - 61% (+1)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 29% (+2)
Disapprove - 57% (-2)


ReachTel yesterday had it had 53-47, with 59-41 on Shorten as PPM. Apparently internal ALP polling has them ahead 53-47 with Abbott, with massive swings in VIC, SA, and WA, a decent result in QLD, and mediocre results in NSW/TAS. Without Abbott, they trail 49-51.

[Talleyrand]

The good news for Shorten is that Keating never had a net positive approval rating and won the 1993 election with similar numbers to what he (Shorten) is getting now.

The issue there is that he while he was unpopular, he was probably grudgingly respected and seen as capable by much of the Australian public. In addition, he had an incumbency advantage and a succesful eight year tenure as Treasurer to go on. Shorten doesn't have either of those boons, although in his benefit is the fact that Abbott clearly is probably not seen as capable by the electorate at this point. Either way, that's a flawed analogy IMO.

Meanwhile, Morgan is out.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6387-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-august-10-2015-201508100947

They have the ALP ahead 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54-46 last time. However, this is only 54.5-45.5 based on 2013 flows.

The state cross tabs are only one of the reasons no one is going to believe this.

VIC- ALP 60.5/LNP 30.5
SA- ALP 59/LNP 41
WA- ALP 57.5/LNP 42.5 ()
QLD- ALP 54.5/LNP 45.5
TAS- ALP 57/LNP 43
NSW- ALP 54.5/45.5

[Talleyrand]

Morgan seems to be very much leftier than The others, but predicted '13 fairly well?

In regards to WA, they have a mediocre Coalition government and are seeing the bum end of the mining boom. They also have been experiencing an oddly high Green vote since the Ludlam by-election although that could be disspating (no minor party cross tabs sadly).

Yeah, Morgan's final poll in 2013 hit the nail on the election.

It isn't surprising that the Coalition has declined in WA for the reasons you stated, but it's totally unbelievable that they've falled to less than 43%, which is why I can't take this poll too seriously.

Meanwhile Essential has no change (as usual), with the ALP ahead 53-47. Abbott is at 38-53 and Shorten at 29-52, with the former ahead on PPM by 36-32.

[Talleyrand]

The Coalition has stormed to an election-winning lead in the newest Galaxy.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/18/galaxy-51-49-to-coalition-2/

They lead 51-49, with primary votes at 44-36-11.

Turnbull has a massive 51-20 lead over Shorten on PPM. RIP Bill.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/09/21/turnbull-gives-govt-12-point-poll-bounce.html

Morgan has the Liberals powearing into a 55-45 lead, up from a monster 43-57 deficit last time. Their primary vote is 48-29 up from 35-36 last time!

It's increasingly likely Turnbull will win an increased majority. Incredible turnaround.

[Talleyrand]

Neither Rudd nor Gillard recorded a 12% boost for their party when they seized the leadership, and it would be a significant 1.5% swing in their favor from the last election. Howard recorded TPP swings in his favor larger than that twice in 2001 and 2004, so it's eminently possible. Turnbull has already begun the process of bringing about competent, reasonable government and the media's attention is now on the increasingly panicky and desperate ALP.

Turnbull is widely popular with the Australian public (keep in mind this man has a 12% personal vote in his electorate!!!). The honeymoon may wear off, but he will easily win the next election, with or without an increased majority.

In addition, Gillard had a (very small) boost at all. There was one poll showing her ahead 55-45, but others had varying results, including some showing little or no change at all. And that quickly disappeared because of the circumstances of the knifing and her poor political skills (and I say this as a fan of her's). Turnbull won't have those disadvantages. I'm really quite excited for the positive changes he will bring as PM for at least two terms to come.

[Talleyrand]

Update-

Newspoll is out and the Coalition has taken a 51-49 lead. Look for this to increase in the coming weeks.

TPP

Liberal/National - 51% (+5)
Labor - 49% (-5)

Primary

Liberal/National - 44% (+5)
Labor - 35% (-4)
Greens - 11% (-1)
Others - 10% (0)

PPM

Turnbull - 55%
Shorten - 21%

Abbott Satisfaction

Approve - 42%
Disapprove - 24%

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 29% (-1)
Disapprove - 54% (-4)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/22/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-7/

Surely a lot of the boost has something to do with Turnbull simply not being Abbott.

Of course! As Shorten said, even Cory Bernardi would have improved in the polls from Abbott, but Turnbull has a unique, powerful appeal to middle Australia that another leader (like Scott Morrison) could not have replicated.

[Talleyrand]

Turnbull won't have those disadvantages. I'm really quite excited for the positive changes he will bring as PM for at least two terms to come.

Can someone explain something to me, if Turnbull is so great - why is it that he was leader of the Liberals a few years ago and then before he could even fight an election they dumped him in favour of Abbott?

3 reasons.

1. Rudd was still extremely popular at the time (even in spite of this Turnbull significantly narrowed his lead)

2. He showed political courage on the Climate Change Bill which some couldn't tolerate

3. He was undermined by lesser individuals jealous of his perch

[Talleyrand]

Essential has it as 50-50, but some of the other results are very telling.

1. Turnbull is ahead 53-17 on PPM.

2.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/22/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-7/

[Talleyrand]

The Turnbull surge continues!!!

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/05/morgan-56-44-to-coalition/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll has it at 50-50.

TPP

Liberal/National - 50% (-1)
Labor - 50% (+1)

Primary

Liberal/National - 43% (-1)
Labor - 35% (0)
Greens - 12% (+1)
Others - 10% (0)

PPM

Turnbull - 57% (+2)
Shorten - 19% (-2)

Turnbull Satisfaction

Approve - 50% (+8)
Disapprove - 25% (+1)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 28% (-1)
Disapprove - 53% (-1)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/11/newspoll-50-50-10/

[Talleyrand]

And Talley - Essential has moved in 51-49 for the Coalition from 52-48 last week...

I'm honestly a bit baffled as to why this is happening, as his approvals are only increasing and he seems to have done an excellent job of building authority in a way that Gillard or Rudd couldn't when they knifed a sitting PM. I assume the initial euphoria is wearing off, and the swing group you described skeptically awaiting some change.

I think we'll know December or the New Year the long-term effect of Turnbull returning; by then the removal of Abbott will be much more of a distant memory.

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/23/reachtel-53-47-to-coalition-3/

ReachTel has it at 53-47 to the Coalition, up from 50-50 last time.

Turnbull's approvals are 66-16 and Shorten's are 25-62.

Turnbull is ahead 76-14 as preferred Prime Minister...

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is out!!!

TPP

Liberal/National - 52% (+2)
Labor - 48% (-2)

Primary

Liberal/National - 45% (+2)
Labor - 35% (0)
Greens - 11% (-1)
Others - 9% (-1)

PPM

Turnbull - 63% (+6)
Shorten - 17% (-2)

Turnbull Satisfaction

Approve - 58% (+8)
Disapprove - 23% (-2)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 26% (-2)
Disapprove - 58% (+5)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/26/newspoll-52-48-to-coalition-7/

[Talleyrand]

My thoughts on this election so far-

-The ALP will probably be around 50% on the TPP at the end, but trail the Coalition by about 5-6 points on the primary vote (probably will end up around 35-36%). The Coalition will probably do pretty well in most of its marginals, and end up with around 80-85 seats.

-I am struggling to find seats the ALP would probably gain (does anyone have any ideas here). Their performance in Queensland and NSW seems quite weak to say the least, and while the swing overall in WA is massive, apparently the Liberals are confident of holding all their seats save perhaps Burt (the polls corroborate this). The calculus is totally complicated by NXT in SA, and I have no idea what's going on in Tasmania. Turnbull is a pretty good fit for the Victorian swingy seats, and there are whispers (?) that McEwen might be a possible Lib gain, although their candidate has gotten in a lot of hot water lately.

-There are a lot of interesting indy/minor party candidates, but I'm struggling to see any winning. Some NXT candidates probably have a best chance, but the ALP should hold all its inner city seats and the Coalition probably will be fine against Oakeshott and Windsor.

What are everyone else's thoughts?

[Talleyrand]

TPP:

Coalition- 51.2%
ALP- 48.8%

Seats:

Coalition - 83 (gain Fairfax, lose Barton, Paterson, E-M, Page, Solomon, Burt, Capricornia, Lyons)
ALP- 63 (gain Barton, Paterson, E-M, Page, Solomon, Burt, Capricornia, Lyons)
Green- 1
Others- 3 (lose Fairfax)

Not going to take a stab at the Senate, although I think Hanson won't get in.

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has released an exit poll of 25 unnamed marginal seats, suggesting the ALP will win 68 seats.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here is an ABC stream-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

[Talleyrand]

Here's the live results page-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

Major issue I see for ALP is that they're currently ahead in many seats by margins less than 1%. With postals, a lot of those will sweep back to the L/NP. I'd expect the Coalition to have a majority pretty easily at this point...