Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Knives]

lmao Sophie Mirabella won pre-selection, ing morons.

[Knives]

Which was odd as Rudd did it to Beazley, Peacock did it to Howard, Keating did it to Hawke, Abbott did it to Turnbull etc.

Labor has a deep fear of changing leaders with the chaos of last govt. The thought is even if Shorten opted to step down it'd still look like he was being pushed out especially because he hasn't been in for long.

[Knives]

People have started getting Liberal flyers and there's an ad out in Shorten, we're seeing an election soon.

[Knives]

Labor's candidate for Deakin has one of the best campaign slogans I've seen.

[Knives]

idk who is running the Victorian Labor page atm but it's lowkey embarrassing yet hilarious at the same time.

[Knives]

Dude obvs Turnbull has changed the game but like chill lol. Give it a couple of months and if the polling holds up you can then call his your Messiah.

[Knives]

Newspoll is out!!!

TPP

Liberal/National - 52% (+2)
Labor - 48% (-2)

Primary

Liberal/National - 45% (+2)
Labor - 35% (0)
Greens - 11% (-1)
Others - 9% (-1)

PPM

Turnbull - 63% (+6)
Shorten - 17% (-2)

Turnbull Satisfaction

Approve - 58% (+8)
Disapprove - 23% (-2)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 26% (-2)
Disapprove - 58% (+5)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/26/newspoll-52-48-to-coalition-7/

Lol Shorten. I feel bad cos I have friends that work for him, but he's such a liability which is sad because he's been a decent leader.

[Knives]

An election is definitely coming - Sarah Henderson the Lib in Corangamite accidentally had 1000 corflutes delivered to the ETU in Geelong.

[Knives]

I can't believe how much has changed in under 3 years - like did anyone actually believe Bill Shorten could be our next PM??? Even if Labor doesn't win, the Coalition are going to be incredibly weakened from massive losses and disunity.

[Knives]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vt4WIGYXGg

This ad is too good.

[Knives]

Batman is really hard to predict because last election you had the double whammy of loss of incumbent and anti-Labor swing, if Feeney can improve his primary vote a few points he should be good - if not he is ed.

[Knives]

Also hearing rumblings that Dunkley is very tight.

[Knives]

I hear talk of McEwen being a seat that might actually swing towards the Liberals...is there any real chance of this, at all?

I don't think so, 2013 they did really well on account of a very strong candidate.

If I wasn't so biased I'd think this would be the funniest election so far, like the Daily Telegraph is running  tomorrow with their front page endorsing Albo in Grayndler lmao.

[Knives]

Do the toaster thing and Turnbull being in Panama Papers is expected to have an effect on the campaign?

Probably not.

If it does it just reinforces this notion that he is rich haha but I doubt it has any bearing on the campaign. Tomorrow's debate will be interesting, apparently Bill used to be a gun debate at school but idk how that works with a debate like this.

[Knives]

As expected Bill resoundingly won the debate, quite obvious he'd done many of these before.

[Knives]

The response to Nova Peris's resignation has been nothing but disgusting. The media in this country and their treatment of Indigenous women is just foul. It's no wonder she is resigning.

[Knives]

I'm not all that familiar with Australian politics, why is shorten so unpopular?

He always has been, people see him as a union hack, he's not that attractive and isn't that great of a speaker. The only reason this election has been close however, is because he's lead his team well - as an opposition they've dictated policy discussion and developed some of the best policy from an opposition. Similarly, he's got an incredibly talented team behind him who don't want to be in opposition anymore. On the other hand, Turnbull was the polar opposite of Shorten, he was popular, well spoken, attractive but those wheels are falling off because he doesn't have the policy or team to back him up.

This will be a close election, but the Libs will most likely win even if they don't win the popular vote.

[Knives]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

[Knives]

Labor needs ~51%-ish on the national 2PP to win, right?

It also seems to me that the NXT is likelier to hold the balance of power after the election than the Greens are, especially in the House but possibly in the Senate as well.

If Labor's primary is below 38 they probs won't win in their own right.

[Knives]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

Wow, really?

That reminds me, it's a good time to mention that one of the advantages to voting out the Coalition will be saving millions of dollars on a pointless, non-binding, divisive plebiscite on equal rights.

The Greens have a reckless asylum seeker policy and limited understanding of free market economics, they don't deserve to ever being government. They have a basic grasp of industrial relations laws and instead win votes by proposing unrealistic policies. Their voters are largely people who will never face the difficulties of someone who survives on welfare, instead they use their vote as something to identify as, this is incredibly problematic and serves to disenfranchise the poorest Australians. We need a strong left-wing opposition, not a fragmented one which is what the Greens are seeking to create.

[Knives]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

Wow, really?

That reminds me, it's a good time to mention that one of the advantages to voting out the Coalition will be saving millions of dollars on a pointless, non-binding, divisive plebiscite on equal rights.

The Greens have a reckless asylum seeker policy and limited understanding of free market economics, they don't deserve to ever being government. ... Their voters are largely people who will never face the difficulties of someone who survives on welfare

I wasn't going to respond to this since it appears we don't agree on much, but I just wanted to rebut the claim that greens are immune to economic policies that hurt the poor.  One of the precise reasons they are doing so well with under 30s is because of deteriorating employment conditions.  Our workforce is now more than half casual, with nearly all jobs added in the last year only part time.  We have a massive under-employment problem which the major parties are not yet willing to acknowledge.  It doesn't make sense that the only options available to someone in the hospitality industry are either 55 hours a week with no paid overtime, no holidays or sick leave, or 20 hours a week at a legal minimum wage but still without penalty rates* or the security that comes with working, at least, 35 hours.  On top of that, if you work part time in a major city, invariably more than half of your income now goes toward rent and transport costs.  So I suspect that economics are driving the support for the Greens a lot more than you think.

*Labor & Greens constant bloviating about protecting penalty rates is especially hurtful because it feels like our sector is being entirely ignored.  You really end up wondering if they think we actually DO get paid penalty rates, or if they just don't care about us because we're at the bottom of the food chain.

While that may be true for some voters, most Greens voters are not voting based on economics - some may. But the reality is, the issues of the inner city are dwarfed by those in the outer suburbs, where the Greens response almost always is "BUILD PT" but that obviously doesn't fix ice issues, mortgage pressures, childcare costs ect ect. I was unfair to categorise Greens like that, I simply meant their voters issues aren't necessarily the same as most who vote based on economics/hit-pocket.

[Knives]

Yes! Chaser is back, love those guys

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TNMT39Ux4XE

My favourite part is that Tanya still has the rat.

[Knives]

Yes! Chaser is back, love those guys

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TNMT39Ux4XE

My favourite part is that Tanya still has the rat.

Her children named it Harry

Excellent name imo

[Knives]

What has happened in the US makes me so happy to be in Australia, thank God both our major parties are committed to gun control.

[Knives]

Bill was so good on Q&A tonight.