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Author Topic: MI-PPP: Hillary leads everyone, Paul and Walker closest  (Read 4849 times)
yeah_93
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« on: June 30, 2015, 01:28:04 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_63015.pdf

Quote
Clinton also leads the entire Republican field for the general election by margins ranging anywhere from 3 to 10 points. Her average lead of 7 points is a little less than what Barack Obama won the state by in 2012 but a good deal more than the 3 point win John Kerry had in the state in 2004. The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Rand Paul, who lags by 3 points at 45/42. Next best are Scott Walker who trails by 4 at 46/42 and Mike Huckabee who's down by 5 at 47/42.

On the other side of the equation the Republicans who do the worst against Clinton, each trailing by 10 points at 49/39, are Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Also in that bottom range are Jeb Bush who's down by 9 at 47/38, and Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina who are each down by 8 at 49/41 and 46/38 respectively. Chris Christie and Marco Rubio, each trailing by Clinton by 6 at 44/38 and 46/40 respectively come down in between.
Essentially:
Clinton 45, Paul 42
Clinton 46, Walker 42
Clinton 47, Huckabee 42
Clinton 46, Rubio 40
Clinton 44, Christie 38
Clinton 49, Carson 41
Clinton 46, Fiorina 38
Clinton 47, Bush 36
Clinton 49, Trump/Cruz 39
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 01:31:42 pm by yeah_93 »Logged
mds32
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2015, 01:30:29 pm »

Here are the Michigan Results.

Clinton 47
Bush 38

Clinton 49
Carson 41

Clinton 44
Christie 38

Clinton 49
Cruz 39

Clinton 46
Fiorina 38

Clinton 47
Huckabee 42

Clinton 45
Paul 42

Clinton 46
Rubio 40

Clinton 49
Trump 39

Clinton 46
Walker 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_63015.pdf
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2015, 01:32:33 pm »

Walker (R)............... 38%
Webb (D)................ 31%

Walker (R).............. 37%
O'Malley (D)............ 32%

Walker (R)............. 39%
Sanders (D).......... 35%

Walker (R)............ 36%
Chafee (D)........... 31%
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 01:35:19 pm by TNvolunteer »Logged
yeah_93
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« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2015, 01:46:17 pm »

I dunno if it's worth noticing (due to potentially small sample) but most Republicans are gathering around 20% of the Black vote. Worst is Bush, who gets 15% of the black vote; best is Rubio, who gets 23%.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2015, 03:13:57 pm »

Bush has so much electability though, guys.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2015, 05:11:20 pm »

Interesting that PPP is expecting Walker to be the nominee- he is the only one ever tested against non-Clinton Democrats.  But, this poll definitely suggests that Michigan could be in play (keep in mind that GOP numbers will improve when there is a candidate).
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2015, 05:13:25 pm »

Good, MI, WI and Pa are safe bets for Clinton.
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mds32
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2015, 06:02:03 pm »

Good, MI, WI and Pa are safe bets for Clinton.

LOL Safe bets? She is down to candidates in PA and is below average I would say in Michigan. Wisconsin seems to Lean/Likely Clinton, Michigan Tossup/Lean Clinton and Pennsylvania is a pure Tossup.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2015, 06:38:29 pm »

Michigan typically is very close a year and a half before the election, but it typically closes hard late for Democrats in Presidential years.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2015, 06:42:00 pm »

Interesting that PPP is expecting Walker to be the nominee- he is the only one ever tested against non-Clinton Democrats.  But, this poll definitely suggests that Michigan could be in play (keep in mind that GOP numbers will improve when there is a candidate).

Don't be so sure. Republicans have nobody who has a strong appeal to Michigan.

The state has too many blacks and union members to be easy picking for a Republican. The last time that the Republicans won Michigan in a close election was 1976 -- with Gerald Ford.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 04:05:43 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2015, 07:25:42 pm »

This is about as good as numbers will look for Republicans in Michigan. It's all downhill from here.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2015, 12:40:40 am »

MI is fools gold! But a close win for Hillary or another DEM means we win the election
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2015, 07:37:00 am »

What I'm puzzled about is that Bush does nearly the worst here but Fox News (who wants Bush to win) has Bush as the best candidate against Clinton.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2015, 09:32:27 am »

Good, MI, WI and Pa are safe bets for Clinton.

LOL Safe bets? She is down to candidates in PA and is below average I would say in Michigan. Wisconsin seems to Lean/Likely Clinton, Michigan Tossup/Lean Clinton and Pennsylvania is a pure Tossup.

LOL Michigan less likely than Wisconsin? Michigan is essentially a Dem lock, like pbrower said it always closes hard late. Wisconsin is a lean Dem and Pennsylvania is tilt Dem because Pennsylvania always comes home at the end.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2015, 04:06:25 pm »

Does any sensible person still believe FoX Propaganda Channel?
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Beet
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2015, 08:44:02 am »

Sanders loses the state 35 - 39. His favorabilities among African Americans are brutal.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2015, 09:03:47 am »

Walker 36%
Chafee 31%

Walker 37%
O'Malley 32%

Walker 39%
Sanders 35%

Walker 38%
Webb 31%
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DS0816
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« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2015, 10:48:55 am »

Good, MI, WI and Pa are safe bets for Clinton.

LOL Safe bets? She is down to candidates in PA and is below average I would say in Michigan. Wisconsin seems to Lean/Likely Clinton, Michigan Tossup/Lean Clinton and Pennsylvania is a pure Tossup.

LOL Michigan less likely than Wisconsin? Michigan is essentially a Dem lock, like pbrower said it always closes hard late. Wisconsin is a lean Dem and Pennsylvania is tilt Dem because Pennsylvania always comes home at the end.

The state effectively has a 250,000 [estimate] raw-vote advantage for the Democrats. More than enough time has gone by to not skew Michigan toward the Republicans in polls indicating a Democrat would win the presidency. Perhaps we are at a point where polls on Michigan, more than three months in advance of a presidential election, should be ignored.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2015, 01:32:12 pm »

Walker 39%
Sanders 35%

We all know how relevant these numbers are at this stage:

Img
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2015, 05:14:56 pm »

Walker 39%
Sanders 35%

We all know how relevant these numbers are at this stage:

Img


Indeed, few people saw the Iraq war spiraling into the quagmire that it became. People could have reasonably predicted a financial panic analogous to that of 1929 (but I am into Howe and Strauss' generational theory and I could see the near-repeat of human history due to the shabbiness of the economic activity of the time) even if I could not time it. America was not ready to elect a black man as President.

 
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Cath
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« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2015, 05:29:03 pm »

Walker 36%
Chafee 31%

Walker 37%
O'Malley 32%

Walker 39%
Sanders 35%

Walker 38%
Webb 31%


Disconcerting to see Webb do the worst against Walker of all people.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2015, 03:30:54 pm »

Sanders loses the state 35 - 39. His favorabilities among African Americans are brutal.

Meaningless. They don't even know who he is.
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