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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Close race  (Read 3728 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 08, 2015, 02:26:10 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/trump-leads-gop-field-in-north-carolina.html

"All of the general election match ups in North Carolina are close with Clinton trailing 5 of the Republican hopefuls, leading 4 of them, and tied with one.

The strongest GOP hopefuls for the general election, leading Clinton by 4, are Mike Huckabee at 49/45 and Scott Walker at 47/43. Ben Carson leads her by 3 at 47/44, and Marco Rubio and Rand Paul each have 1 point leads at 47/46 and 46/45 respectively.

The weakest Republicans in the state are Donald Trump and Chris Christie who each trail Clinton by 3 points at 47/44 and 46/43 respectively. Also trailing Clinton are Jeb Bush at 45/43 and Ted Cruz at 47/46. Clinton's tie comes with Carly Fiorina at 45%."
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2015, 02:32:00 pm »

Considering Clinton has 100% name recognition and is getting around 45-47%, it can be assumed that she will probably lose the state by around 3-5 to your generic R.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2015, 02:43:51 pm »

Considering Clinton has 100% name recognition and is getting around 45-47%, it can be assumed that she will probably lose the state by around 3-5 to your generic R.

Clinton has gotten constant negative press for 3 months now, so this can't be assumed of course. This will by 100% certainty be the low point of Clinton's campaign.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
mds32
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« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2015, 02:46:55 pm »

With Walker up by 4 against Clinton now without full name-recognition I could see him winning by 5-6 in NC.

Others like Rubio and Paul about 3 points. The GOP who should be worried the most is Bush since he is losing and has name recognition of about Hillary Clinton.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2015, 02:52:28 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2015, 02:53:12 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.

"Even now"? What does that mean? Clinton has 100% name recognition.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2015, 02:53:55 pm »

Notice: Hillary's electibility advantage is slipping. She trails Walker by 4, Bernie trails Walker by 8. Until now polls have generally shown Hillary's advantage over Bernie electorally at 10 or more.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2015, 02:56:29 pm »

Non-Clinton Matchups:

Walker 43
Sanders 35

Walker 44
Webb 31

Walker 43
Chafee 29

Walker 45
O'Malley 29

-------

All candidates are viewed unfavorably, except for Huckabee (39/39), Rubio (35/33), Carson (34/25), and Walker (30/29). Clinton is at 39/55.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2015, 02:59:12 pm »

It's silly to think that the election campaign will have no effect on public perception of each candidate.  

People may like Marco Rubio if they know almost nothing about him because he's received positive coverage.  Every candidate gets tested, vetted and attacked over the course of a campaign.

The fact is that the Republican numbers aside from Jeb Bush should be considered very soft and preliminary.  And, it's not like Clinton won't be campaigning either.  Don't celebrate Republicans.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2015, 02:59:55 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.

"Even now"? What does that mean? Clinton has 100% name recognition.

She has 100% of horrible name recognition right now because of 90 days of "Hillary is the real Bridgegate" news towards her from every single media outlet in America. Taking that into account it's pretty mindblowing that she isn't 20-30% down, especially in a state like North Carolina.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2015, 03:02:43 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.

"Even now"? What does that mean? Clinton has 100% name recognition.

She has 100% of horrible name recognition right now because of 90 days of "Hillary is the real Bridgegate" news towards her from every single media outlet in America. Taking that into account it's pretty mindblowing that she isn't 20-30% down, especially in a state like North Carolina.
I find it kind of a justice that Hillary is recieving a much more mild form of the Mitt Romney Treatment and they are losing their heads
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olowakandi
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« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2015, 03:03:11 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.

"Even now"? What does that mean? Clinton has 100% name recognition.

She has 100% of horrible name recognition right now because of 90 days of "Hillary is the real Bridgegate" news towards her from every single media outlet in America. Taking that into account it's pretty mindblowing that she isn't 20-30% down, especially in a state like North Carolina.

That's my pt, every GOPer should be ahead by 5-6 pts but spmr arent, staying close in NC is key.
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RFayette
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« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2015, 03:06:41 pm »

I find it amazing Trump only does slightly worse than Jeb. Hyper polarization....
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2015, 03:07:04 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.

"Even now"? What does that mean? Clinton has 100% name recognition.

She has 100% of horrible name recognition right now because of 90 days of "Hillary is the real Bridgegate" news towards her from every single media outlet in America. Taking that into account it's pretty mindblowing that she isn't 20-30% down, especially in a state like North Carolina.
I find it kind of a justice that Hillary is recieving a much more mild form of the Mitt Romney Treatment and they are losing their heads

Who are losing their heads? North Carolinians?

As far as I know, Hillary hasn't said that every single illegal immigrant should go selfdeport themselves right now or that only 47% of people will consider voting for me, cause the other 53% are too smart to know that my policies will seriously hurt them economically. If Hillary had said the same, she would of course have gotten the Mitt Romney treatment already.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
King Francis I
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« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2015, 03:07:26 pm »

I can't wait to see Trump getting demolished again Tongue.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2015, 03:09:19 pm »

I find it amazing Trump only does slightly worse than Jeb. Hyper polarization....

In fact Trump is doing (much) better than Jeb among NC Republicans right now, though much, much worse among Democrats and probably/perhaps among independents as well.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2015, 03:10:08 pm »

The state still in play, even now, is good news.

"Even now"? What does that mean? Clinton has 100% name recognition.

She has 100% of horrible name recognition right now because of 90 days of "Hillary is the real Bridgegate" news towards her from every single media outlet in America. Taking that into account it's pretty mindblowing that she isn't 20-30% down, especially in a state like North Carolina.
I find it kind of a justice that Hillary is recieving a much more mild form of the Mitt Romney Treatment and they are losing their heads

Who are losing their heads? North Carolinians?

As far as I know, Hillary hasn't said that every single illegal immigrant should go selfdeport themselves right now or that only 47% of people will consider voting for me, cause the other 53% are too smart to know that my policies will seriously hurt them economically. If Hillary had said the same, she would of course have gotten the Mitt Romney treatment already.
No her supporters feel a sort of victimhood complex that in a world in which bridgegate and 47% were treated as earth shattering scandals that their princess is somehow being mistreated when people begin to question her emails or slushfund
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« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2015, 03:48:19 pm »

NC is fools gold for the DEMs like WI for the GOP
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2015, 03:48:48 pm »

The good news for Republicans is that Clinton has very little room for improvement with Black voters.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #19 on: July 08, 2015, 04:01:55 pm »

The good news for Republicans is that Clinton has very little room for improvement with Black voters.

And very large room for improvement with white voters. And everyone else for that matter.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #20 on: July 08, 2015, 04:08:16 pm »

The good news for Republicans is that Clinton has very little room for improvement with Black voters.

And very large room for improvement with white voters. And everyone else for that matter.
Also room for a dramatic fall with every demographic you can name she is no better a fit for any demographic than Obama was
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2015, 04:10:00 pm »

The good news for Republicans is that Clinton has very little room for improvement with Black voters.

And very large room for improvement with white voters. And everyone else for that matter.
Also room for a dramatic fall with every demographic you can name she is no better a fit for any demographic than Obama was

North Carolina is in the South. Thus she is a better fit than Obama for white (racists). Probably better for Hispanics as well, as Hillary has always had a much higher star in the Hispanic community than Obama.
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"A kiss can be 10 times more effective than morphine in reducing pain by triggering the body's natural painkillers."

Trump equals Satan. If people doesn't start to realize that extremely basic part of human being, then I'm gonna start to self-destruct pretty soon.
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2015, 07:10:22 pm »

The good news for Republicans is that Clinton has very little room for improvement with Black voters.

The continuing rural white collapse plus a slight decline in the black margin for Democrats (likely more relevant than turnout which should remain high) is enough to keep NC off the table for her in a close race IMO.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2015, 08:50:02 pm »

Wow... we're more than a year from the election and apparently the only thing that matters is name recognition. I'm sure white collar whites will LOVE Walker when they learn more about him.

The assumption that GOP prospects will GROW once people get to know this clown car cavalcade is kind of adorable.
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2015, 12:17:20 am »

The poll database entry is slightly wrong. It should be:

46% Top-3 Republicans at the moment nationally (Bush/Walker/Carson)
44% Clinton

See more here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=212614.msg4654831#msg4654831
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