A guide to all the seante races in 06.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

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No he wasn't. Some polls showed Casey up about 15 points.

Just because someone is up in the polls at some point doesn't make them to favorite to win. 

Casey was leading the polls by double digits before Rendell started his ad campaign, but this was completely based on name recognition.  Everyone working on that race knew his support was extremely shallow.   Rendell had the charisma, the experience, the agenda, and the money to win that race.  The only thing he didn't have was name recognition.

Polls a year before that election don't show any of that...they only show name recognition.  As soon as Rendell started running his ads, he went up by 10 points and never looked back.  And this was exactly what everyone in the campaign knew would happen.

He was up most of the time. Casey had everything except the personality. That race was Casey's. Rendell was certainly not the favorite throughout the campaign.

What do you mean by most of the time?  Rendell jumped into the lead as soon as he started his ad campaign, and stayed there for the rest of the campaign.  I spent months of my life doing Rendell's polling and I remember this moment well.  Casey's lead fell apart within days...he never really had a chance.

[Keystone Phil]

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No he wasn't. Some polls showed Casey up about 15 points.

Just because someone is up in the polls at some point doesn't make them to favorite to win. 

Casey was leading the polls by double digits before Rendell started his ad campaign, but this was completely based on name recognition.  Everyone working on that race knew his support was extremely shallow.   Rendell had the charisma, the experience, the agenda, and the money to win that race.  The only thing he didn't have was name recognition.

Polls a year before that election don't show any of that...they only show name recognition.  As soon as Rendell started running his ads, he went up by 10 points and never looked back.  And this was exactly what everyone in the campaign knew would happen.

He was up most of the time. Casey had everything except the personality. That race was Casey's. Rendell was certainly not the favorite throughout the campaign.

What do you mean by most of the time?  Rendell jumped into the lead as soon as he started his ad campaign, and stayed there for the rest of the campaign.  I spent months of my life doing Rendell's polling and I remember this moment well.  Casey's lead fell apart within days...he never really had a chance.

It was only in the final couple of weeks when it got close. You claimed Rendell was always the favorite and that's in no way true.

[J. J.]

Phil's recollection is mine.

I will make one prediction about the 2006 PA Senate race:

If you are expecting a "Casey Cakewalk," you are dead wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

If you are expecting a "Casey Cakewalk," you are dead wrong.

I don't expect him to win by more than six points. A six point win would be comfortable but, I agree that it will not be a cakewalk.

[Keystone Phil]

Mendenez, Pallone, and Andrews would beat Kean (Mendenez and Pallone by 2-5%).  Keystone Phil, if you must humiliate your self, fine. 

Andrews could beat Kean. Menendez and Pallone - No.

[TeePee4Prez]

Mendenez, Pallone, and Andrews would beat Kean (Mendenez and Pallone by 2-5%).  Keystone Phil, if you must humiliate your self, fine. 

Andrews could beat Kean. Menendez and Pallone - No.

Not so sure about Pallone.  I wouldn't count out Menendez either.