looks like Tsipras has folded

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he should fcking resign, fcking pig.  agrees to $13B in budget cuts -- more than were voted on in the referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/09/greece-debt-crisis-athens-accepts-harsh-austerity-as-bailout-deal-nears

there is a "left bloc" within Syriza that may be able to rally forces to reject this package in Parliament.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, the energy minister and influential hard-leftist, who on Wednesday welcomed a deal for a new €2bn gas pipeline from Russia, has ruled out a new tough austerity package.

Lafazanis represents around 70 Syriza MPs who have previously taken a hard line against further austerity measures and could yet wreck any top-level agreement.

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Game theory

Game theory resigned, it wasn't funny anyway.

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they might have given him a 10% haircut-without-calling-it-a-haircut in order to push this garbage through.  how does he even walk back into parliament with this garbage in his hand?  if he doesn't want to do this he should resign and go on speaking tours, talking about "how we did it." 

resign, hand power to the Syriza left, let them reset the clocks to zero.

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The impression I got from reading Tsipras profiles in January that he sounded pragmatic if necessary, but not necessarily pragmatic. Seems about right.

he was naive enough to think that by draping himself in a red flag he'd scare the creditors into allowing him to run a nice social democracy in Greece.  Yanis acted like a crazy man and threatened to beat people up -- people who believed he could beat them up.  but in the end it has all been an act.  there are literally only hours left for the Syriza project and the hope it has offered the international left: and it turns on Greek parliament's rejection of this BULLsh**t that Tsipras is carrying home.

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the French did it too.

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here are the details of the deal.  a total collapse of Syriza's position, an obliteration.

http://www.naftemporiki.gr/finance/story/976680/the-greek-reform-proposals

parliament still has to ratify it.  it will face serious opposition from within Syriza and, conceivably, from the electorate that voted 61% to reject a 'better' deal 4 days ago.

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This confirms it: Tsipras was always doomed to failure.

they needed to be planning from day 1 on what to do if we give this all up.  they obviously weren't doing that.  their naivete about what negotiations would actually be like is inconceivable.

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I mean, feel free to party, Austerians.  looks like you won.  I won't think the less of you.

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the consensus is that Tsipras-loyal Syriza MPs will join with PASOK/ND MPs to ratify it.  of course, if Tsipras can't garner "a majority of the majority" of Syriza MPs, they're liable to flush the government there and then before the vote happens -- anything to stop it from going through.

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also, if you haven't noticed, Syriza got a commitment from the creditors to look at debt restructuring in 2022.  Greece will be a prune by 2022.

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I mean, feel free to party, Austerians.  looks like you won.  I won't think the less of you.

Why should they party? They knew they was going to win from the start. I think instead we all should congratulate the Greeks for finally deciding to limit the damage to Greece.

no they did not.  some of them may be so enured to the idea that their sh**t stinks that they think they can never lose, that finance capital will endure forever -- it won't.

post-Oxi, the Syriza "Left Platform" drew up a Grexit plan which would have made some aggressive changes to the structure of the state -- nationalizing banks, for instance.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/07/tsipras-euro-debt-default-grexit/


fast forward to 2018: the Hellenic Republic has its hands long washed of the Euro and Syriza maintains *popular support.  movements spring up in Spain, Italy in attempt to do the same maneuver.  

there's hardly any guarantee that would have been successful, but it might have been.  unfortunately, Syriza's leadership (from Tsipras to Yanis to Euclid) would never consider it.  they don't have Lenin's set of balls, let's just say.

today, most "left platform" MPs are voting for perpetual debt peonage.  one of them even fcking cried on TV.

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I mean, feel free to party, Austerians.  looks like you won.  I won't think the less of you.

Why should they party? They knew they was going to win from the start. I think instead we all should congratulate the Greeks for finally deciding to limit the damage to Greece.

no they did not.  some of them may be so enured to the idea that their sh**t stinks that they think they can never lose, that finance capital will endure forever -- it won't.

post-Oxi, the Syriza "Left Platform" drew up a Grexit plan which would have made some aggressive changes to the structure of the state -- nationalizing banks, for instance.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/07/tsipras-euro-debt-default-grexit/


fast forward to 2018: the Hellenic Republic has its hands long washed of the Euro and Syriza maintains *popular support.  movements spring up in Spain, Italy in attempt to do the same maneuver.  

there's hardly any guarantee that would have been successful, but it might have been.  unfortunately, Syriza's leadership (from Tsipras to Yanis to Euclid) would never consider it.  they don't have Lenin's set of balls, let's just say.

today, most "left platform" MPs are voting for perpetual debt peonage.  one of them even fcking cried on TV.

The reason they did not do this is that they realized, that had they done it, the much more likely news in 2018 would have been the EU definitevely expelling The State of Greece in retaliation for the Greek military government executing national traitors Tsipras and Varufakis.

non-Euro Syriza government would have long been expelled dude.  you are right that the leaders would be risking their lives for the chance at being a historic figure.

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key news today is Eurogroup may not accept the deal.  rumor is Merkel wants to reject it and the French want to accept it.  the Germans smell Tsipras' weakness and are going for the full out kill.

Schauble is even talking some nonsense about a "temporary 5 year Grexit"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11733260/Greece-news-live-Germans-tout-plans-for-five-year-temporary-Grexit-after-Europeans-warn-reforms-are-too-little-too-late.html

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2. I support the structural reforms that are being proposed.

so. basically, you support the ability of creditors to force unpopular policy on a population because that population is "insolvent".

--

x-post AAD.

"today is about establishing conditions to *start* negotiations, not closing a deal."

tomorrow Germany offer a "tough" 3 year "aid"/bloodletting package to Greece..

..they have other EU leaders pleading with them not to be psychotic.  Italy's PM openly came out against Merkel: "Humiliating a European partner after Greece has given up on just about everything is unthinkable."

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the new details are, of course, that Greece is being offered the following choice:

Tsipras was told that Greece will either become an effective “ward” of the eurozone, by agreeing to immediately implement swift reforms this week.

Or, it leaves the euro area and watches its banks collapse.

Tsipras personally, of course, has a third option: he can choose not to make the choice.

would Parliament Speaker Zoi Konstantopoulou (who abstained on the Friday/Saturday vote be willing to) be willing to lead Greece and a governing Syriza into Grexit as PM?

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this is insane.  they can't actually think that they can maintain sovereignty without mass repressions at least some of the time if this goes through.  all of this over ~320 billion Euros (theoretically anyway) -- a fcking keystroke for the Fed or ECB.

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this is insane.  they can't actually think that they can maintain sovereignty without mass repressions at least some of the time if this goes through.  all of this over ~320 billion Euros (theoretically anyway) -- a fcking keystroke for the Fed or ECB.

What repressions? The Europeans are not asking for any restrictions on political activity, or media, or individual rights. They are merely giving a choice of taking the money on some conditions, or not taking the money and having to implement even rougher conditions.

the very implementation of these 'conditions' is a death blow to Greek national sovereignty (within that we find "political activity" and "individual rights"), and the way these negotiations have been carried out is best described as ritual humiliation -- or "fiscal waterboarding", prefers the Guardian.

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Tsipras supposedly has 4 demands:

@tom_nuttall
Tsipras seeking 4 changes to EG note:

1 No IMF involvement
2 Stronger statement on debt
3 Signal to ECB to maintain ELA
4 Scrap 50bn idea

--

dawn has hit the Eurogroup, and Chinese markets opened for Monday. Euro down only a half-cent so far today so the sense of panic is limited.

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the 280k member public service workers' union, ADEDY, has called a general strike for Wednesday, designed to coincide with the parliament vote on the "memorandum".

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Selling Parthenon hurts exactly nobody. It is an expensive heirloom, that could fetch a good load of cash. You are out of cash. Why not sell it?

You know, I think this is probably one of those 'if you don't get it, there's no way to explain it to you' sorts of things.

I'm pretty sure he grew up in the USSR, then made a career for himself in the West.  probably has a nice portfolio and everything.  such people hold "property rights" sacrosanct above all other rights.  the post-Castro Cuban emigres are horrible too.  I went to college with one -- she was really hot, but both of us saw fate pass us by as I apologized for Castro.

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leaked IMF report: Greek sovereign debt will exceed 200% of GDP by 2017; far more debt relief will be needed to keep country in Eurozone

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Selling Parthenon hurts exactly nobody. It is an expensive heirloom, that could fetch a good load of cash. You are out of cash. Why not sell it?

You know, I think this is probably one of those 'if you don't get it, there's no way to explain it to you' sorts of things.

I'm pretty sure he grew up in the USSR, then made a career for himself in the West.  probably has a nice portfolio and everything.  such people hold "property rights" sacrosanct above all other rights.  the post-Castro Cuban emigres are horrible too.  I went to college with one -- she was really hot, but both of us saw fate pass us by as I apologized for Castro.

Wrong on most counts. Did grow up in the USSR. Studied in the US, true. Is Mexico "West"? Because that is where I have been since. Have very little saved: none invested in the market (university sallary, kids, schools cost money).  And, though I do have healthy respect private property, I do not view it as "sacrosant", nor do I consider it more important than basic human rights: quite the contrary. I do, however, find that private property is frequently very useful in protecting those rights - but that is another matter.

that's even worse then; property has a psychological hold on you and it hasn't even treated you all that well.

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Greek Kerensky prepares to expel SYRIZA rebels from the party

Yeah, you would prefer a Greek "for god's sake, shoot somebody" Lenin.

Of course it was Lenin who signed humiliating peace terms with the Germans. Kerensky is the guy who tried to continue fighting a losing war.

Kerensky was a guy who did not believe he had the right to make major decisions, as he was an unelected caretaker (he was only in - very limited - power for a few months anyway - the original Provisional PM was Prince Lvov). Elections to the Constituent Convention were held, as planned, shortly after the Bolshevik coup. And the Bolsheviks lost miserably (got about a quarter of the seats) - upon which loss they send in the guards to kick out the duly elected representatives of the people.

BTW, not that I care much about it, but the war was hardly losing - within a year the Germans collapsed themselves, and Russia would have been on the winning side.

as someone who does care - the Bolsheviks had to use every last cigarette to win the civil war.  or at least had to prepare that way. and they were waiting on the German (and pan-European) revolution, etc.  and besides they might not have held power for a full year if they continued war that whole time.

all of which makes it hard to regard Brest-Litovsk as a Bolshevik tactical error.