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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  ABC/WaPO National: Clinton leads Bush
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPO National: Clinton leads Bush  (Read 1786 times)
Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
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« on: July 20, 2015, 04:10:37 pm »
« edited: July 20, 2015, 04:13:23 pm by TNvolunteer »

Clinton (D): 50%
Bush (R): 44%

Clinton landslide with Trump as an Independent:

Clinton (D): 46%
Bush (R): 30%
Trump (I): 20%

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2015, 04:44:49 pm »

Poll included 30% dems and 20% Reps.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2015, 04:46:15 pm »

Now now, don't give Trump any ideas...
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2015, 04:49:10 pm »

Now now, don't give Trump any ideas...

It doesn't matter what any of us do. The Donald makes his decisions without thinking.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2015, 05:58:09 pm »

At 50 and ahead -- looks like a winner still.

46-30-20?

Img


43-37-19 (1992)


Img


49-41-8 (1996)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2015, 06:07:51 pm »

What would the map of Trump support look like if he actually ran as an Independent?
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yeah_93
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2015, 06:57:59 pm »

What would the map of Trump support look like if he actually ran as an Independent?

I'm guessing he could take big chunks of the GOP nominee's numbers in the south, the mountain states, and the great plains. Maybe he could match Perot's numbers in the latter two.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2015, 07:03:56 pm »

Another poll showing Clinton leadi h Jeb, no to third Bush term.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2015, 07:16:46 pm »

An interesting note on the methodology is that Langer allows respondents to speak Spanish. All pollsters should be doing this, especially in state polls in the big Hispanic states. Something to bear in mind when looking at future polls in FL, CO and NV.
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Donnie
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2015, 04:23:19 am »

With Trump as (I) it would make 2016=1992.

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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2015, 04:27:18 am »

An interesting note on the methodology is that Langer allows respondents to speak Spanish. All pollsters should be doing this, especially in state polls in the big Hispanic states. Something to bear in mind when looking at future polls in FL, CO and NV.

That probably hurts Trump if rapists are allowed to respond to polls. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2015, 07:34:53 am »

With Trump as (I) it would make 2016=1992.



In 1992, the party of the incumbent President lost. In 2016, the party of the incumbent President would win -- but not with the VP.
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BetoBro
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2015, 10:13:44 am »

Who's the polarizing one now? Smiley
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2015, 10:22:28 am »

What would the map of Trump support look like if he actually ran as an Independent?


Here's a good starting point.

Img


Is Trump now the functional equivalent of UKIP?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2015, 04:47:08 pm »

Here's a map of Trump's performance in primary polls across the states so far:



30% = 0-4%
40% = 5-9%
50% = 10-14%
60% = 15-19%
70% = 20-24%
80% = 25-29%
90% = 30+%

So... not a lot of information, but if I had to guess I'd say he looks strong in the Southwest and mid-Atlantic states and weak everywhere else.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2015, 08:18:26 pm »

I think the GOP carve-up on a 30-20 basis would look something like this:
(Blue = Bush / Green = Trump)



And Hillary would win like....everything.  Lets hope this never comes to pass.
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