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Author Topic: Gravis-NV Heck has large advantage  (Read 2573 times)
mds32
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« on: July 16, 2015, 08:04:45 pm »

Gravis Marketing
Nevada
Heck (R) 49%
Masto (D) 35%

http://www.oann.com/pollnevada/
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2015, 08:06:41 pm »

lol gravis
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mds32
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2015, 08:08:27 pm »

lol gravis
Actually 2 polls showing Heck with a lead of 14, 50-36/49-35. And one showing Masto with a 1-point lead.
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2015, 08:19:43 pm »

I'm sure he's leading right now, and I hope it stays that way, but I'm a bit skeptical of Gravis' wild polling.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2015, 03:22:46 am »

lol gravis
Actually 2 polls showing Heck with a lead of 14, 50-36/49-35. And one showing Masto with a 1-point lead.

Two sh*t polls do not confirm a lead - especially one of that caliber.
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2015, 06:16:22 am »

lol gravis
Actually 2 polls showing Heck with a lead of 14, 50-36/49-35. And one showing Masto with a 1-point lead.

Two sh*t polls do not confirm a lead - especially one of that caliber.
Everything is a guess at this point because no real polls have been taken of this race
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mds32
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2015, 07:31:01 am »

Well, if he is tied in a Democratic internal poll and leading in two others by big margins, I'm sure he has a slight edge. Didn't think he would be such a good recruit.

Also, LOL@Democrats only including Democratic internals or junk polls (FL/IL) in the database.

I think that is hilarious
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mds32
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2015, 07:31:48 am »

lol gravis
Actually 2 polls showing Heck with a lead of 14, 50-36/49-35. And one showing Masto with a 1-point lead.

Two sh*t polls do not confirm a lead - especially one of that caliber.

While 1 Democratic Internal showing the Democrat leading by 1 does not "confirm" a Democratic lead either.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2015, 09:07:17 am by mds32 »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2015, 09:03:44 am »

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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2015, 11:45:14 am »

Yeah, just proves this race can go either way, with Masto a slight underdog. She probable losing by about 3-4 pts.
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2015, 06:27:15 pm »

Keep in mind that Nevada voters almost elected that loathsome disgrace Shelley Berkley to the Senate. If she can come so close to beating an incumbent, I'm not so sure that Heck will have an easy time winning this seat. Ugh, NV Democrats are awful.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2015, 07:22:00 pm »

However, Shelly Berkley had a scandle going. Masto is a freah face, who has been out of office for a while; whereas, Heck is an officeholder. I would give it sometime for voters to get used to Masto-Cortez.
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2015, 07:22:14 pm »

Keep trying, Gravis, you'll get it right eventually. Let's wait until an accurate, non-partisan pollster polls this race before jumping to conclusions. And even then, both Masto and Heck still aren't that well known.
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mds32
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2015, 04:41:32 pm »

However, Shelly Berkley had a scandle going. Masto is a freah face, who has been out of office for a while; whereas, Heck is an officeholder. I would give it sometime for voters to get used to Masto-Cortez.

Sure I agree, except Rep. Heck has a definite advantage of winning three times in the major media market of Las Vegas. Many in Clark county know of his name and it is probably propping up the lead at the moment.
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mds32
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2015, 04:44:05 pm »

Keep trying, Gravis, you'll get it right eventually. Let's wait until an accurate, non-partisan pollster polls this race before jumping to conclusions. And even then, both Masto and Heck still aren't that well known.

I would laugh if SurveyUSA or Suffolk showed a large lead for Heck as well. 2/3 polls give Heck a large lead at the moment. Compared to the PPP poll we have to assume then at the very least Heck has a 6-9 point lead if you average them out. It is plausible due to the media market he is in and the proximity of his congressional district in the market.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2015, 03:57:26 am »

The FL senate poll overstates Dem support. But, this poll is very surprising due to the dems strenth in OH and FL and CO.

This is the only poll showing Dems losing ground. But, NV will be a tossup a prez level, anyways☺
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King
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2015, 12:23:44 am »

Masto will pull through on the coat-tails of The Spankening (In Theaters November 2016).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2015, 12:40:42 am »

Keep in mind that Nevada voters almost elected that loathsome disgrace Shelley Berkley to the Senate. If she can come so close to beating an incumbent, I'm not so sure that Heck will have an easy time winning this seat. Ugh, NV Democrats are awful.

Heller was an interim Incumbent, which is basically not really an incumbent.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2015, 06:10:34 pm »

Keep in mind that Nevada voters almost elected that loathsome disgrace Shelley Berkley to the Senate. If she can come so close to beating an incumbent, I'm not so sure that Heck will have an easy time winning this seat. Ugh, NV Democrats are awful.

Heller was an interim Incumbent, which is basically not really an incumbent.
Not as far as predicting elections goes. They have about the same win/loss records as people running for open seats.
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2015, 06:13:58 pm »

Is there any data to show how well appointed incumbents do compared to actual incumbents?  Neither Heller nor Berkley had been on the ballot statewide before.  Berkley probably had an advantage because her district was so overpopulated at the time so she was representing more voters.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2015, 06:18:56 pm »

Is there any data to show how well appointed incumbents do compared to actual incumbents?  Neither Heller nor Berkley had been on the ballot statewide before.  Berkley probably had an advantage because her district was so overpopulated at the time so she was representing more voters.
Larry Sabato had something about it when he was talking about the 2014 Montana Senate race right after John Walsh was appointed to the seat, but I don't remember how in-depth it got.
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