Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

The Dutch Houses of Parliament in The Hague


I haven't seen a thread on Dutch elections and politics yet, so I decided to start one. The next Dutch elections will be held in March 2017 - if the VVD-PvdA government, which doesn't have a Senatorial majority, survives, that is.

The government, which has been ruling since the end of 2012, has almost done everything that's in its coalition deal, which is pretty impressive, even if you don't agree with (parts of) it. The only thing they still need to do now is to reform the tax system. However, it remains to be seen if the two parties will be capable of 1) agreeing on a new system and 2) finding support among the so-called "constructive opposition parties", needed in order to secure a Senatorial majority.

At the moment, Greece is the number one political issue, but all mainstream parties will eventually agree on a bailout deal, even though the VVD is pretending to be critical of it.

[Diouf]

Average of polls from http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

Results shown in number of seats (compared to 2012 election, compared to 2012 election poll minus tactical voting)

VVD 26 (-15, -8)
PVV 22 (+7, +4)
SP 21 (+6, -2)
CDA 20 (+7, +5)
D66 20 (+8, +6)
PvdA 11 (-27, -15)
GL 10 (+6, +5)
CU 6 (+1, =)
PvdD 5 (+3, +2)
SGP 4 (+1, +1)
50Plus 4 (+2, +1)
VNL 1 (+1, +1)

VNL (VoorNederland) is a new party created by ex-PVV members. They want to return to what PVV was originally; i.e. liberal in the economic policies, whereas PVV has moved to become much more left wing in its economic policies. They are allied with UKIP in Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe.

I guess the PvdA would like the government to finish its term in order to postpone what looks like a horrible result for as long as possible. Whether that's politically possible in a situation where most of the political programme has been carried out, and where building senate majorities is difficult is another question.
The polls currently suggest a messy result where at least four parties would be needed to form a majority; perhaps a return of the Kunduz (VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL) in some form. The PVV has isolated itself, the PvdA probably needs some time outside government, and I'm not sure enough parties will cooperate with SP, but I think the remaining parties can be combined in almost any thinkable way.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The polls have been incredibly volatile in the Netherlands for some time, with every major party leading in at least a handful of polls. At the moment the trend seems to be random rise in GreenLInks, which I notice have a hot new leader (could explain things). If the Dutch dithering disease continues, I assume next government will be led by Party for the Animals in coalition with the Reformed Political Party or something.

Some questions:

What is the SP's perspective towards Syriza and the crisis?

Could PVV support Rutte as a minority? They can't be that far apart on the migrant issue at this point in time...

Why have the D66 lost their record high polls they had earlier in the parliament? Scandal or typical social liberal snobbery?

[You kip if you want to...]

Could PVV support Rutte as a minority? They can't be that far apart on the migrant issue at this point in time...

2010-2012 was VVD+CDA with PVV minority support, so it wouldn't be out the questions I'd think

[DavidB.]

The polls have been incredibly volatile in the Netherlands for some time, with every major party leading in at least a handful of polls. At the moment the trend seems to be random rise in GreenLInks, which I notice have a hot new leader (could explain things). If the Dutch dithering disease continues, I assume next government will be led by Party for the Animals in coalition with the Reformed Political Party or something.

Some questions:

What is the SP's perspective towards Syriza and the crisis?

Could PVV support Rutte as a minority? They can't be that far apart on the migrant issue at this point in time...

Why have the D66 lost their record high polls they had earlier in the parliament? Scandal or typical social liberal snobbery?

On the SP: they take a stance comparable to that of Die Linke in Germany. They will probably oppose the bailout deal because they think it's not fair to Greece. They think Syriza is being pushed into accepting a German dictate that doesn't represent the will of the Greek people. They think Rutte is too harsh on Greece.

Migration is not really that big of an issue at the moment. Even if the PVV would be ready to support the VVD, Rutte won't be willing to associate himself with Wilders anymore, who has really become toxic. And even if the VVD would be pragmatic enough to do so, then no other party will - the CDA has drifted rightward while in opposition, and it also drifted toward populism, but cooperation with the PVV is something that a majority of its members will most definitely not consider acceptable. Wilders truly closed any doors to government cooperation with his "Fewer Moroccans" speech in March 2014.

D66 is still high in the polls, but if there is going to be any "two-horse race" before the elections, then it is to be expected that many potential D66 voters will jump ship. It is entirely possible that the PvdA sack Samsom, choose Asscher as a new leader, and create a new "two-horse race" against the VVD. Regarding D66: I guess they lost a bit of their 2014 gains due to GroenLinks electing a new leader, Jesse Klaver, who is considered young and fresh, and to the perception (especially among D66 voters) that Prime Minister Rutte is handling the crisis with Greece in a responsible way. Actually, this government is more popular with D66 voters than with VVD/PvdA voters, which is entirely logical, since compromises between the government parties are often right down D66's alley. Still, D66 is popular with many younger, highly educated people, who think that the government has not done enough to structurally reform Dutch economic policies. In an interesting move, D66 presented itself to the right of the VVD when it came to the economy during the Provincial (and, indirectly, Senatorial) elections in March this year, advocating more budget cuts than proposed by the government.

Meanwhile, Rutte is having a problem within his own party and with his own voter base. Before the elections, he promised that no more money would be spent to save Greece. This week, Rutte admitted that he cannot keep this election promise. Fairly honest, but unpopular with the majority of the VVD voters, who would rather see Greece leaving the eurozone. Rutte already had an image problem with many VVD voters, who consider him weak when it comes to protecting Dutch sovereignity in Brussels, and this week's "incident" has caused the VVD to lose some virtual seats in the polls - which is good news for the PVV and for VNL.

On the right of the VVD, Halbe Zijlstra, former Secretary of State for Culture and Sports (who was responsible for lots of budget cuts in the cultural sector during the Rutte-I cabinet), will probably emerge as a threat to Rutte's position within a few years. He doesn't consider himself a liberal. At the moment, however, Rutte's position seems to be safe. Many people don't necessarily agree with everything he does, but they have the idea that he is handling things responsibly - and if not, Zijlstra is not nearly high-profile enough to be a real threat anyway. The VVD's "number two", Health Minister Edith Schippers, has always been loyal to Rutte, and will probably remain his biggest ally within the party.

[DavidB.]

I guess the PvdA would like the government to finish its term in order to postpone what looks like a horrible result for as long as possible. Whether that's politically possible in a situation where most of the political programme has been carried out, and where building senate majorities is difficult is another question.
The polls currently suggest a messy result where at least four parties would be needed to form a majority; perhaps a return of the Kunduz (VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL) in some form. The PVV has isolated itself, the PvdA probably needs some time outside government, and I'm not sure enough parties will cooperate with SP, but I think the remaining parties can be combined in almost any thinkable way.

If it will be too difficult to make an agreement on the reform of the tax system, then it might be beneficial for the PvdA to bring down the government, find a new leader (most likely Asscher, who is widely considered capable and who was on the election posters for the Provincial/Senatorial elections in March 2015 already...), and take a leftist stance (although Asscher is on the "right-wing" of the PvdA). Surely, they will lose many seats, but it doesn't have to be nearly as bad as the polls suggest right now.

There is much talk about a coalition with VVD, CDA and D66, which is something all three parties seem to want, except for the fact that the VVD can't actually say this in public; that would cause many people on the party's right to vote for the PVV instead, since D66 (and especially its leader Alexander Pechtold) is seen as elitist, out-of-touch, and overly progressive by much of the VVD's voter base. However, these parties don't have a Senatorial majority and it is considered common wisdom that it has been a mistake to form a government without a Senatorial majority, so they won't make that mistake again, meaning that other government partners are needed. Everything depends on the next election results and a lot could change in the meantime, but at least it seems clear that the VVD and the PvdA won't be together in the next coalition. GroenLinks has taken a turn to the left, flirting with ideas like the basic income etc., and it seems improbable that they would be ready to make economic policies to the right of the current government's policies. CU and SGP could support a VVD-CDA-D66 government, but they would want to have their way on some immaterial issues, which will be hard for D66 to compromise on. And even these five parties are not sure at all to be having a parliamentary majority. However, a lot can happen in the meantime.

[Zinneke]

I think you provide excellent analysis DavidB, apart from the bit where you talk about a potential two-horse race forming up. Given how unpopular the coalition is (which has its roots in the 90s "purple" nightmare and the rise of Fortuyn) rather than the individual parties, Dutch voters won't be fooled again into a two-horse race and tactical voting, only to see the dichotomy enter coalition together. So SP and D66, who are the mirror parties of PvdA and VVD, might actually make the projected gains. They need to get their supporters to the poll booth.

With the above paragraph in mind, and to elaborate on ''mirror'' parties, it is important to note that all parties are competing for several sections of Dutch society and focusing their resources accordingly. Grosso moddo, the groupings are
 
VVD-D66 : mainstream liberal middle class in Randstad

 PvdA-SP-(GroenLinks) : "forgotten" peripheral regions of the Netherlands and the inner-cities,

PVV-CDA this is controversial given the split in the CDA due to their time in government with PVV but I stil think they are essentially competing for the same electorate or electoral base.

CU-SGP : Bible belt.

Those are where the real battles are fought and therefore they can't be seen to associate themselves already with each other.


There are anomalies for sure, mainly because PVV is a catch-all party, and therefore represents a threat to each patch if you like. In Limburg for example they are competing with VVD in Venlo, CDA in Sittard, SP-D66 in Maastricht and SP in Parkstad. In the latter two's case they came joint first, vote for vote, with SP. Limburg is an anomaly in itself though.

[DavidB.]

I think you provide excellent analysis Diouf, apart from the bit where you talk about a potential two-horse race forming up. Given how unpopular the coalition is (which has its roots in the 90s "purple" nightmare and the rise of Fortuyn) rather than the individual parties, Dutch voters won't be fooled again into a two-horse race and tactical voting, only to see the dichotomy enter coalition together. So SP and D66, who are the mirror parties of PvdA and VVD, might actually make the projected gains. They need to get their supporters to the poll booth.

Not sure if you're talking to Diouf or to me, but I'll reply anyway. The government is definitely unpopular, but I don't think a new two-horse race between VVD (with Rutte, who is very good in electoral campaigns - see the Provincials) and PvdA (with Asscher) is implausible, both parties being the largest on their side of the political spectrum - however, these two parties should then rule out any cooperation with each other. Anyway, it is of course also possible that the electoral landscape will actually become a total mess, much like the polls are predicting right now.

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As a Dutch citizen, I'm aware of this - but it is a good analysis

Regarding the PVV-CDA thing: the CDA's electorate tends to be to the right of the party. Even though cooperating with the PVV is not popular with the CDA's members anymore, many potential CDA voters still like Wilders' politics. Rural, right-wing voters (especially in the South, but also in other rural areas, e.g. the north of Noord-Holland), the CDA's former core voter base, have switched often in the last elections. Coming from the CDA, many of them voted for the PVV in 2010 and (often for the first time) for the VVD in 2012, in order to prevent Samsom from becoming Prime Minister. Now, some of them are prepared to return to the CDA, while others will vote for the PVV again or will consider voting for the VVD again. It looks like the VVD will remain the biggest party on the Dutch right, enabling them to attract undecided right-wingers - especially with Rutte as PM, being considered capable by many right-wing voters, at least more so than all of the alternatives.

That being said, there are also a lot of CDA voters who would never vote for the PVV, e.g. Protestant (PKN) voters in the North.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What influence has PvdA had over the government's agenda?

[DavidB.]

What influence has PvdA had over the government's agenda?

I think you get different answers if you ask different people. One example: The government allowing many asylum seekers' children to stay in the Netherlands has been a large win for the PvdA.

In general, left-wingers think the PvdA has sold out to the VVD entirely, while right-wingers think the VVD has sold out to the PvdA entirely. Instead of compromising on each policy areas, both parties have simply decided that both parties will get all they want on certain issues while not getting anything on other issues. However, along the way, compromises have been made on both sides. I (as someone who is clearly to the right of the VVD), for one, think that the government's programs are fairly balanced, maybe slightly edging toward the VVD. That being said, the PvdA has had much more trouble "selling" the deal to their voters, which is why they are in dire straits right now.

Often, the issues for the PvdA have been symbolical. Within the party, there has been a lot of opposition against the penalization of illegality (something that the VVD already wanted to implement during Rutte-I), which has been scrapped. Within the VVD, there was a lot of opposition against a PvdA plan that would make health costs dependent on one's income, basically making health care a lot more costly for the VVD's voting core. This has been scrapped as well.

[You kip if you want to...]

The PvdA are gonna get Clegged basically?

[DavidB.]

The PvdA are gonna get Clegged basically?

Not necessarily, but this is probably the most likely scenario, yes. Their problem is that there are so many parties on the Dutch left that it is easy for PvdA voters to find their own kind of leftism somewhere else. However, the VVD is also bound to lose a significant chunk of its 2012 voters - they won't pull a Cameron, methinks.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Possibly stupid question: why are the purple cabinets of the 90s so widely regarded as "a nightmare"?

[Zinneke]

The PvdA are gonna get Clegged basically?

No, its more like if Labour campaigned on a populist platform, then formed a coalition government with the Tories. I use this analogy lightly because the last election was presented as a two-way battle towards the end, with Samson seen as the "man of the people" and Rutte as the "safe pair of hands" to choose between. It was a sh**t election because it was based on characters and fear politics ("don't let xyz into government!") rather than policies and people convienently forgetting how Dutch politics works. Remember that your vote is rarely wasted here unlike in Britain and France so there is nothing to lose by voting for a minor party. I guess people got tired of big coalitions. That worked out well.

PvdA need to regain the peripheral regions and industrial communities they gained from SP towards the end of that election, largely thanks to Samson. They used to have the North tied up to a tee and they used to get solid results in Limburg and Brabant industrial cities and towns. They still have somewhat good results in Ranstad inner cities that can be recovered once people remind themselves what the point of D66 is.

DavidB is very positive and upbeat about VVD for obvious reasons, but that won't change is the fact that they will still have lost half their seats as things stand. In the old ways of doing Dutch politics you reward the "winners" and punish the "losers", according the net seats they have gained or lost. Losing 20 seats counts as a loss IMO. If they are the ''largest'' party as Rutte's fratboys will tell you, it will be because the left is totally fractured.

I think Rutte's biggest mistake was ruling out another coalition with the PVV. He only has one option now and that's VVD-CDA-D66. He'll be going into negotiations as a "loser", the other two on his left as big winners, and his core electorate are generally speaking the right-wing of his party.

So yeah, DavidB is pushing the two-horse race more in hope than expectation I imagine...

Possibly stupid question: why are the purple cabinets of the 90s so widely regarded as "a nightmare"?

Because Fortuyn wrote a book about it called "the Purple Nightmare" and Fortuyn is God.

EDIT : My mistake, here is the book https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_puinhopen_van_acht_jaar_Paars

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I thought Wim Kok was super popular?

[Zinneke]

Yeah, I thought Wim Kok was super popular?

Again, I would say its less the individuals and parties in question that are unpopular and more the configuration and having to share government with the class of society you think is responsible for all of the NL's problems.

Keep in mind the VVD during the 90s wasn't nearly as conservative, and D66 joined midway, so Kok's supporters thought they were getting the good deal out of it, while some core VVD were pissed. Many voters had switched to VVD from CDA too, so they didn't mind Purple at the time, thinking it would move the country's politics into the 21st century (and it did).

Today, it is the opposite. The PvdA is structurally a more right-wing party so VVD voters, while annoyed at having to share power with lefties, think they are getting a good deal on it, particularly on the socio-economic level. Either way unlike in the nineties people didn't expect to vote for the two parties only to realise they are going to enter coalition together. The last election was all about making sure Samson beat VVD from the PvdA's perspective. Once all the Kunduz club made it clear that they would not enter coalition with SP, Samson went into every election debate with his stupid lightbulb and said "let's make sure we beat the VVD on a moderate left platform so they can't let in the fascists again". There's your reason why PvdA are crashing right now.

Purple just doesn't work, whichever way you look at it. When Kunduz called themselves Paars+ every man and his dog went apesh**t in the NL and called for Fortuyn to be revived from the dead. In flanders they had purple for about the same length of time and it brought about first record gains for Vlaams Blok and then De Wever-mania. In Wallonia last year people were expecting MR to get a look in due to their improvement (net seat gain is important) only to realise how much PS and MR despise each other on a personal level.

[DavidB.]

The PvdA are gonna get Clegged basically?

DavidB is very positive and upbeat about VVD for obvious reasons, but that won't change is the fact that they will still have lost half their seats as things stand. In the old ways of doing Dutch politics you reward the "winners" and punish the "losers", according the net seats they have gained or lost. Losing 20 seats counts as a loss IMO. If they are the ''largest'' party as Rutte's fratboys will tell you, it will be because the left is totally fractured.

I think Rutte's biggest mistake was ruling out another coalition with the PVV. He only has one option now and that's VVD-CDA-D66. He'll be going into negotiations as a "loser", the other two on his left as big winners, and his core electorate are generally speaking the right-wing of his party.

So yeah, DavidB is pushing the two-horse race more in hope than expectation I imagine...

Huh? I'm not a big VVD fan at all. I didn't vote for them in 2012 and I will most certainly not vote for them in the next election, so by all means continue criticizing my perspective on the political situation, which might be perfectly legitimate, but please do so without assuming things about my position that simply aren't true. My perspective on the Dutch political situation has nothing to do with me wanting the VVD to "win" the elections or something like that.

And yeah, the VVD obviously has a big electoral problem as well. If there is not going to be a new "two-horse race", which is not something I would predict but also not something I would rule out, then the whole political system will be fractured indeed. Meanwhile, I'm not so sure that for the VVD, ruling out a coalition with the PVV was such a stupid thing to do strategically. The PVV has truly shifted too much toward the "right" in order to be an acceptable coalition partner in the future: not ruling out cooperation with the PVV might (have) scare(d) off a lot of undecided VVD-D66 voters (these people still seem to exist...).

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I thought Wim Kok was super popular?

He was. It is funny how people's perception of Purple was actually positive during the Purple period and then turned 180 degrees when Fortuyn entered the stage. In addition, Kok has had a lot of criticism from the left for earning lots of money at some Chinese bank and having all kinds of lucrative jobs - I guess that is considered illegitimate for a social democrat. On the political level, he is criticized by the left for his "third way" politics, which caused the PvdA to "lose its ideological feathers", a phrase Kok himself introduced in the 90s as something positive. Of course, the whole Dutch political spectrum has shifted to the right ever since, so this criticism might sound a bit hollow.

[Zinneke]

Huh? I'm not a big VVD fan at all. I didn't vote for them in 2012 and I will most certainly not vote for them in the next election, so by all means continue criticizing my perspective on the political situation, which might be perfectly legitimate, but please do so without assuming things about my position that simply aren't true. My perspective on the Dutch political situation has nothing to do with me wanting the VVD to "win" the elections or something like that.

Woah sorry, I thought I had read above that you were a VVD-supporter.

A lot of their militants around here push the Right vs Left, two horse race line around here, unaware of the irony...

On a lighter note, does the Party of the Future still exist?

[DC Al Fine]

How do you vote exactly DavidB?

[DavidB.]

How do you vote exactly DavidB?

I try to separate my political opinion from my analysis of the political situation as much as possible, and I feel that more people should make this distinction. So, to be clear: everything I'm writing in this post is purely based on my opinion. However, while analyzing the political situation - which is what I will do mostly in this thread - I take off my "opinion" glasses entirely.

I voted for a myriad of parties (all on the right), from Libertarian to SGP. It depends on the election and on the issues that are at stake. I don't feel particularly attached to one party. I'm too much of a right-winger (with regard to the economy) and a Eurosceptic for the VVD. I really hated Wilders' "fewer Moroccans" speech, which reminded me of our German neighbours' dark past. The PVV's extreme statements on the Islam add to the tensions in our society and alienate moderate Dutch Muslims while we should build bridges instead (and I don't like the PVV's quasi-leftist positions on the economy). Even though I would be a conservative in the American landscape, I am too libertarian for the SGP. And while I believe in the first part of their Bible, I don't like the second part - however, that part is the one that really influences their politics. Meanwhile, I wouldn't vote for the Libertarians anymore: too much on the fringe, too many conspiracy crazies, too ideological - your average libertarian party, I guess. So in the next elections, I'll probably vote for VNL, even though I have lots of doubts about their leader, Bram Moszkowicz, who would be a total joke in parliament (as opposed to their number two, Joram van Klaveren, whom I consider a truly capable and intelligent politician).

[DavidB.]

On-topic now. On July 1, a new law regarding the referendum has been enacted. It comes down to this: if a "popular initiative" is supported by 300,000 people, an advisory referendum will be organized.

Well-known, right-wing Euroskeptic weblog GeenStijl is now trying to gather the needed signatures in order to hold a referendum about the EU Association Agreement with Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. GeenStijl argues that this Association Agreement will be the first step toward full EU membership (which is a really doubtful "analysis" in reality, I think). Given the general (lack of) popularity of EU integration as well as the crisis in Greece, it is likely that such a referendum would have a clear "no" as its outcome, which would be pretty embarrassing for the government. However, it is doubtful whether GeenStijl will find 300,000 people to sign the initiative, as doing so takes quite some time. I won't count on it.

I myself won't be signing the petition, as the underlying geopolitical implications (which most Dutch won't immediately recognize) don't fit my pro-NATO/pro-Western worldview.

[DavidB.]

First column: percentage of the votes in the 2012 elections
Second column: percentage of the votes according to this poll
Third column: maximum voter potential according to this poll (the sum obviously exceeds 100%)
Fourth column: losses/gains in voter intention compared with 2012 results
Fifth column: losses/gains in voter potential compared with 2012 results (which obviously shows net gains overall because the sum of "voter potential" can be higher than 100%)
(source: peil.nl/Maurice de Hond)



An interesting chart. While the VVD would be the biggest party (according to peil.nl's poll, which has been released on July 19), CDA and SP (!) have the greatest potential to grow. D66's big voter potential is not something special, as it's in the center of the political space. During elections, the party has great difficulty to capitalize on this big potential.

Also interesting is that the VVD's entire voter potential seems to be lower than the party's actual election result in 2012, indicating disappointment with the government among right-wing voters, who are now inclined to vote for CDA, PVV, or even VNL.

The problem for the PvdA is even bigger, the poll indicating 13% as the party's maximum voter potential - in 2012, 24,8% voted for the PvdA. As of now, 5% would vote for the PvdA (although peil.nl has a tendancy to underpoll the PvdA).

[freek]

First column: percentage of the votes in the 2012 elections
Second column: percentage of the votes according to this poll
Third column: maximum voter potential according to this poll (the sum obviously exceeds 100%)
Fourth column: losses/gains in voter intention compared with 2012 results
Fifth column: losses/gains in voter potential compared with 2012 results (which obviously shows net gains overall because the sum of "voter potential" can be higher than 100%)
(source: peil.nl/Maurice de Hond)

It would be interesting to see if similar charts exists from some time before the 2012 elections, and if parties exceeded their potential in the elections. My gut feeling is that the potential for PvdA might have been below 25% in such a poll in 2011 or early 2012.

And unrelated: what VNL is has been explained above, and PP is the Pirate Party.

[DavidB.]

First column: percentage of the votes in the 2012 elections
Second column: percentage of the votes according to this poll
Third column: maximum voter potential according to this poll (the sum obviously exceeds 100%)
Fourth column: losses/gains in voter intention compared with 2012 results
Fifth column: losses/gains in voter potential compared with 2012 results (which obviously shows net gains overall because the sum of "voter potential" can be higher than 100%)
(source: peil.nl/Maurice de Hond)

It would be interesting to see if similar charts exists from some time before the 2012 elections, and if parties exceeded their potential in the elections. My gut feeling is that the potential for PvdA might have been below 25% in such a poll in 2011 or early 2012.

And unrelated: what VNL is has been explained above, and PP is the Pirate Party.

I found this:

(source: peil.nl/Maurice de Hond)

My gut feeling was also that the potential of the PvdA would be arond 20% in 2011, maybe even lower, but it hasn't been below 21% - now, it's 13%...

A quick calculation of the changes in electoral potential, comparing 2011 to now:
VVD -9%
PvdA -11%
PVV -4%
SP +1%
CDA +10%
D66 0%
ChristenUnie +4%
GroenLinks 0% (wow)

All other parties weren't in the 2011 chart.