Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I always get the feeling that Ipsos overestimates the ''bourgeoisie'' centre-right parties.

This is true, btw. It doesn't necessarily overestimate the combined right, but it overestimates the VVD and tends to underestimate the PVV.

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ PM Rutte when he said yesterday: "I want the Netherlands to be the first country in Europe to stop the trend of the Far-Right populists."

It's Austria first, Netherlands second when it comes to this ...

[DavidB.]

LOL @ PM Rutte when he said yesterday: "I want the Netherlands to be the first country in Europe to stop the trend of the Far-Right populists."

It's Austria first, Netherlands second when it comes to this ...

A party leader responsible for paying millions to have ads with the word "kopvodden" is a right-wing populist himself.

[Mike88]

How is the ballot format? Do people vote only for one party and then the seats are allocated, by using the d'hondt method or other, or do people vote for their favoured candidates and not the parties?

[DavidB.]

How is the ballot format? Do people vote only for one party and then the seats are allocated, by using the d'hondt method or other, or do people vote for their favoured candidates and not the parties?

You vote for a candidate on a party list, but this vote is treated as a vote for the party, and seats are allocated on that basis using the D'Hondt method.

[Mike88]

How is the ballot format? Do people vote only for one party and then the seats are allocated, by using the d'hondt method or other, or do people vote for their favoured candidates and not the parties?

You vote for a candidate on a party list, but this vote is treated as a vote for the party, and seats are allocated on that basis using the D'Hondt method.

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

[DavidB.]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

[DavidB.]

And here's the final Kantar poll:




Kantar, like Peil, expect turnout to be at the same level of 2012/2010.

[Mike88]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

Yikes!... I guess you guys whished to have the ballot format we have here in Portugal, which is a A4 paper form:

[freek]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!!  

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It is bigger this time. Wider, because there are more parties (Somewhere between 22 and 27 parties). Also, VVD and PvdA have 80 candidates per district. This is too long for one column, these parties will have a second column.

[freek]

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

[Dutch Conservative]

Some bad polls for the PVV today. The I&O poll is really strange and I dont buy it. Something has to be wrong with their sample. Or my political 'antenna' is way off. Quite some people in my surrounding have swung to the PVV in the last days (even today), I'm not sure if the polls could pick up such a movement. But on the other hand it's just an anecdotal story.

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: D'66
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: PVV
Largest in Zeeland:CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: CDA
Largest in Noord-Brabant:CDA
Largest in Utrecht (province): D'66
Largest in Gelderland: CDA

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? OVER
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? OVER
Best VVD municipality? Wassenaar
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Over
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Almere
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Rijswijk
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK and FvD will get in.

Final seat prediction I will post tonight after the debate.

[DavidB.]

Nice, Dutch Conservative! Will fill it out myself after the debate, together with my seat prediction.

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

I do this in second-order elections (in my parents' suburb) but prefer to go to a watchparty with friends this time, since it's the general. May be making some shorter posts here occasionally from my phone, the quality of which will progressively decline as I drink more.

What's it going to be for you tomorrow, Freek, if I may ask?

[Diouf]

Peter-Paul Koch's average on quirksmode, including today's five polls.

VVD 27
PVV 22
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 15
PvdA 10
CU 6
50Plus 5
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 2

http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

[DavidB.]

And here's the last Peilingwijzer:


PVV probably slightly too low due to LISS having them at 15 and I&O at 16 (though of course they may be right and all the others may be wrong too).

[freek]

Nice, Dutch Conservative! Will fill it out myself after the debate, together with my seat prediction.

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

I do this in second-order elections (in my parents' suburb) but prefer to go to a watchparty with friends this time, since it's the general. May be making some shorter posts here occasionally from my phone, the quality of which will progressively decline as I drink more.

What's it going to be for you tomorrow, Freek, if I may ask?

CDA, as usual.

Not a big fan of Buma, I didn't like his style of opposition. Not a big fan of the current program, I am more liberal than the party. But I am also too conservative for D66, and in my opinion VVD is only interested in money and cars (i.e. the political wing of the Telegraaf) . Things I am not interested in. Which only leaves CDA, in my opinion. I am voting for Anne Kuik, #11.

I grew up on a farm in Tubbergen municipality, maybe that is the reason for my CDA preference.

[DavidB.]

Solid choice Never thought I'd say it, but I'm looking forward to seeing the CDA govern again.

I will cast my vote in parliament, for Theo Hiddema, #2 on the FvD list. This will be the fifth party I vote for. Pretty weird idea considering that there are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s who voted for only one or two (KVP and CDA...) parties.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just realized Wikileaks was at it again this week.

[freek]

Solid choice Never thought I'd say it, but I'm looking forward to seeing the CDA govern again.

I will cast my vote in parliament, for Theo Hiddema, #2 on the FvD list. This will be the fifth party I vote for. Pretty weird idea considering that there are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s who voted for only one or two (KVP and CDA...) parties.

Yes, I voted VVD 1998 - 2003, and CU/SGP for European Parliament since 2004. Otherwise always CDA.

[Tender Branson]

Currently watching the debate between Justin Bieber-Trudeau (GroenLinks) and the CDA guy:

[DavidB.]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

[Dutch Conservative]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

Really? I thought it was a very strong performance by Wilders (but ofcourse i am biased). In his first section he totally destroyed Asscher. His second section was very effective, because he was able to frame Islam as the center issue and position himself as the outsider. I thought he was the most effective in convincing voters who may doubt between PVV and FvD/VNL (whink whink).

Roemer and Rutte also very strong.
Buma and Pechtold solid.
Klaver was a bit nervous and I think he isn't really satisfied by his performance.
Segers and especially Asscher were weak. Asscher looked really angry.

I thought SGP and Monasch (Nieuwe Wegen) performed good in the first round with the small parties.

[SunSt0rm]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

Wilders was quite good, he roasted Asscher, who was dreadful. Roemer was also strong. Buma was awkward with the debate with Pechtold. Asscher is the biggest loser and I may believe now the PvdA will reach single seats now

[DC Al Fine]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

Has a party ever won more seats than it had candidates on its list?

[Dutch Conservative]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

Has a party ever won more seats than it had candidates on its list?

No, that has never happened as far as I know. A party can put max. 80 people on their list (if they had 15 seats or more in the previous election). And: in each district a party can put different names on the ballot: there are 20 districts (kieskringen) so in theory max. 1600 candidates. The largest number of seats ever achieved was 54 (CDA in the 80's).