Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

Wilders heavily criticized Rutte for negotiating with Klaver. I imagine Rutte's handling of the row with Turkey convinced quite a few people who intended to vote PVV to vote for the VVD, but these people are going to be pissed when Rutte enters a coalition with GroenLinks. And Klaver once again made it very clear that he won't join a cabinet with right-wing policies on economic issues or immigration. He will demand a lot of concessions from the VVD (and to a lesser extent the CDA).

[DavidB.]

Wilders' attack on Rutte for trying to form a GreenRight government was pretty hilarious. "Not Rutte-III but Duyvendak-I, and guess [RaRa, for the Dutch...] who will be Justice Minister?" Wijnand Duyvendak was a GL MP but had to resign when news regarding his past as a rather radical environmental activist (some use the word terrorist here, not entirely without reason) was revealed. Many were surprised to see him return as Jesse Klaver's campaign leader. On election night, Klaver made sure to publicly thank and hug him. RaRa stands for Revolutionary Anti-Racist Action and was a group that didn't shy away from using political violence to reach their goals (but "rara" can also mean "guess" in spoken Dutch). Duyvendak himself has always denied being part of this group, but this is not entirely clear and it remains a controversial subject.

Klaver himself did well, though. As mvd10 said, it was clear he isn't exactly ready to give up on any of his principles and reiterated that the differences between the VVD and GL remain "super large".

Another hilarious part of the debate was when Baudet started his maiden speech in Latin ("Quo usque tandem factionem cartellum et officiorum magina, patientia nostra abuditur dum navis praetoria resurrectionis ad profiscendum parata est?") and was warned by Speaker Arib to talk in Dutch.

[Zinneke]

Can you explain what Baudet means by party cartel? Does he include PVV/SP in that cartel?

[DavidB.]

Can you explain what Baudet means by party cartel? Does he include PVV/SP in that cartel?

He means the mainstream parties that always govern this country in some composition, so CDA/PvdA/VVD/D66/GroenLinks (the latter of which has never governed nationally but has an important role on lower levels of government and is absolutely coalitionable). Not PVV and SP, partly because they never govern and partly because he emphasizes the importance of the "job carousel" (baantjescarrousel) and PVV/SP don't engage in this system, where failed politicians can always be appointed mayor somewhere or get a well-payed management job in semi-public healthcare, education or infrastructure organizations. According to FvD, 10,000 cartel party members rule this country and they do so in their own interest, not in the country's interest.

Connected to the party cartel is the "media cartel", which is led by people with a party political affiliation (all members of the "cartel parties", mainly PvdA/D66). Baudet even referred to the Dutch Public Broadcaster (NPO) in his maiden speech: he wants big budget cuts and more neutrality. The neutrality of the NPO has been under fire for some years already, mainly due to PVV ideologue Martin Bosma, who, together with GeenStijl, popularized and normalized referring to the NPO as the "state broadcaster" (staatsomroep), something people within the NPO absolutely hate.

[Zinneke]

Can you explain what Baudet means by party cartel? Does he include PVV/SP in that cartel?

He means the mainstream parties that always govern this country in some composition, so CDA/PvdA/VVD/D66/GroenLinks (the latter of which has never governed nationally but has an important role on lower levels of government and is absolutely coalitionable). Not PVV and SP, partly because they never govern and partly because he emphasizes the importance of the "job carousel" (baantjescarrousel) and PVV/SP don't engage in this system, where failed politicians can always be appointed mayor somewhere or get a well-payed management job in semi-public healthcare, education or infrastructure organizations. According to FvD, 10,000 cartel party members rule this country and they do so in their own interest, not in the country's interest.

Sure, but what solution does he propose for conflicts of interest, that seem to exist across the boards in democracies where anyone can stand for election? Does he want a tabula rasa of the Dutch political party outlook?

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That's a shame, I quite like the NPO. A bit more low brow than the VRT, but entertaining nonetheless.

Does he have source on PvdA/D66 members having infiltrated the NPO? I get the whole Muslim Omroep programs thingy, but at the same time the NPO gave his party quite a bit of attention compared to say, VNL.

[DavidB.]

He wants to end "internal vacancies" and appointments through the networks of the "cartel parties" and instead open all vacancies to the public. This seems like a good idea to me, but it is easier said and done and at the end of the day party political networks are always going to remain relevant. Baudet also wants a technocratic government without party politicians solely consisting of experts that rules on the basis of case-by-case parliamentary majorities on the issues.

Many prominent people in the NPO are pretty open about their political affiliation (often PvdA). Henk Hagoort, the chairman of the board of the NPO from 2008 until 2016, is a CDA member. In this election, PvdA, VVD, CDA and D66 received most NPO attention -- arguably justified for the VVD but perhaps less so for CDA and PvdA. Ironically, FvD and Baudet, indeed, also receive a LOT of attention (indeed, more than is "warranted" based on their size), though this is partly due to right-wing trolling broadcaster Powned being part of the NPO.

The Moslim Omroep (NMO) doesn't exist anymore, just like the Joodse Omroep. Zijlstra (Rutte-I) and Dekker (Rutte-II), the VVD deputy ministers responsible for the NPO, already slashed the budget and forced most broadcasters to merge over the last seven years.

[DavidB.]

Today, the trial against Michael Heemels, former assistant to Geert Wilders, has started in Maastricht. Heemels was responsible for the PVV's financial administration and stole 176,000 euros out of the party's piggy bank, which is part of the reason why they were too broke to organize a proper general election campaign. Of course, trusting someone from the South with their money was bound to be a mistake Heemels lived a life of luxury and was addicted to cocaine. The public prosecutor wants to #LockHimUp for at least six months. To be continued.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Today, the trial against Michael Heemels, former assistant to Geert Wilders, has started in Maastricht. Heemels was responsible for the PVV's financial administration and stole 176,000 euros out of the party's piggy bank, which is part of the reason why they were too broke to organize a proper general election campaign

Sounds like an ff to me.

[Zanas]

Another hilarious part of the debate was when Baudet started his maiden speech in Latin ("Quo usque tandem factionem cartellum et officiorum magina, patientia nostra abuditur dum navis praetoria resurrectionis ad profiscendum parata est?") and was warned by Speaker Arib to talk in Dutch.

My hero!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First of many, I hope.

[DavidB.]

Great map, Al!

Results for all polling stations in Amsterdam on a map in English: here.

[SunSt0rm]

Rotterdam

[DavidB.]

The Hague: combination VVD-CDA-D66-GL has a majority in areas that are middle-class and more affluent than that: best scores in the very rich, green Benoordenhout and Belgisch Park areas, where a lot of embassies are located. Mark Rutte lives there. Worst performances in working-class areas, white and non-white ones alike; worst scores in the Schilderswijk, where DENK got 46%, but also in more mixed Moerwijk.

I think I can hear some social democrats sigh deeply now, but they probably voted GL too.

[freek]

Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

[DavidB.]

Because the results came in so late, much fewer statistics were produced by the newspapers than usual. I've tried to compose lists of the best results. May (no: will) contain errors. Don't overanalyze this; these places aren't necessarily representative of voting patterns for parties (e.g. the VVD coalition is much bigger than only rich people, and the PVV is becoming less of a Limburg-based party than ever before despite still peaking there).

Turnout: (excluding the islands)
Rozendaal 95.8%
Staphorst 91.2%
Urk 89.8%
Haren 89.3%
Oegstgeest 89.2%
Bloemendaal 88.9%
Renswoude 88.8%
Blaricum 88.4%
Heiloo 88.3%
Molenwaard 88.3%
Zederik 88.3%

More Bible Belt municipalities in the top 10 (Urk, Renswoude, Molenwaard, Staphorst, Zederik). Interesting to see how turnout has gone up pretty steeply in Bible Belt municipalities that had pretty high turnout in the first place.

VVD:
Laren 47.1%
Rozendaal 43.7%
Wassenaar 41.7%
Bloemendaal 39.8%
Blaricum 39.4%
Beemster 36.3%
Heemstede 36.2%
Aalsmeer 34.8%
Westvoorne 34.8%
Wijdemeren 34.3%

The usual ones, mostly.

PVV:
Rucphen 38.9%
Brunssum 26.4%
Landgraaf 26.3%
Onderbanken 24.8%
Pekela 24%
Nissewaard 23.7%
Roerdalen 23.5%
Stein 22.7%
Echt-Susteren 22.6%
Simpelveld 22.6%

Almost all of them are in Limburg except for Pekela (Groningen, poorest place in the country), Rucphen (West-Brabant) and Nissewaard (working-class white flight Rotterdam suburb).

CDA:
Tubbergen 41.7%
Dinkelland 37%
Ommen 32.1%
Dalfsen 31.2%
Hellendoorn 30.4%
Dongeradeel 30%
Wierden 29.6%
Twenterand 29.4%
Raalte 29%
Kollumerland en Nieuwkruisland 28.2%

All in rural Overijssel and northeast Friesland.

D66:
Wageningen 23.2%
Utrecht 22.2%
Leiden 20.9%
Delft 20.3%
Oegstgeest 20%
Groningen 19.9%
Nijmegen 19.5%
Amsterdam 18.8%
Heemstede 18.7%
Bloemendaal 18.2%

University cities and very wealthy suburbs; I don't think the latter type of places featured as prominently in their top 10 before. D66 are now larger in rich Heemstede and Bloemendaal than in the city of Haarlem, for example, becoming increasingly suburban. Almost no difference between D66 performance in Groningen and Haren, in Leiden and Oegstgeest, in Amsterdam and Amstelveen.

GroenLinks:
Utrecht 20.2%
Nijmegen 20.1%
Wageningen 20.1%
Amsterdam 19.7%
Groningen 18.9%
Leiden 16.9%
Haarlem 15.6%
Arnhem 14.4%
Alkmaar 12.8%
Leeuwarden 12.8%

Medium-sized cities with a bobo presence; university cities.

SP:
Boxmeer 27.5%
Pekela 24%
Gennep 21.6%
Bergen (L) 20.3%
Menterwolde 20.2%
Sint Anthonis 20.2%
Appingedam 19.5%
Oldambt 19.5%
Cuijk 19.3%
Emmen 18.6%

All in Eastern Groningen or the East Brabant/North Limburg region where Roemer hails from. The SP lost heavily in the south and the west and gained in the north (at the expense of the PvdA, particularly in Eastern Groningen), rural Gelderland and Zeeland.

PvdA (LOL)
Terschelling 11.7%
Leeuwarderadeel 10.9%
Winsum 10.9%
Aa en Hunze 10.6%
Heerenveen 10.6%
Noordenveld 10.4%
Leeuwarden 10.1%
Schiermonnikoog 10.1%
Menameradiel 10%
Opsterland 9.7%

All in the north; 1 in Groningen, 2 in Drenthe, 7 in Friesland. The picture shouldn't even be that different from 2012 except that Amsterdam isn't here... but the percentages are

CU: (probably contains errors)
Bunschoten 25.5%
Oldebroek 20.4%
Elburg 17.7%
Hattem 16.5%
Zwartewaterland 16.5%
Hardinxveld-Giessendam 16.4%
Staphorst 16.4%
Zuidhorn 15.1%
Molenwaard 14%
Kampen 13.9%

All Bible Belt. Will do other parties later.

[DavidB.]

Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

Thank G-d that they managed to compose this despite municipalities being annoying with publishing the results by polling station this time. This is a goldmine. You can lock me up with this for three days and I won't care.

Post funny results here, y'all.

[freek]

Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

Thank G-d that they managed to compose this despite municipalities being annoying with publishing the results by polling station this time. This is a goldmine. You can lock me up with this for three days and I won't care.

Post funny results here, y'all.

Polling station 'Dorpshuis', Zeddam, Montferland municipality. PvdA largest party, with 23% of the vote. Probably a tabulation error, in the other polling station in this village PvdA scored 3%, and in 2012 PvdA scored 24% in this polling station.

[DavidB.]

Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.

Buurthuis Sam Sam in the Schilderswijk, The Hague has DENK at 60.25%. Don't think any other polling station can top that.

[freek]

Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.

Buurthuis Sam Sam in the Schilderswijk, The Hague has DENK at 60.25%. Don't think any other polling station can top that.

Probably not.

The polling stations won by Artikel 1 are actually  quite interesting. I have been thinking about it, and I can't imagine there have been many other examples in the past of parties that failed to win a seat, but won individual polling stations. At first I thought maybe somewhere in Groningen in 1986, when CPN dropped out of parliament. But then PvdA won 60% in Beerta and Finsterwolde, so I think that is ruled out. Only possibility I can think of is maybe a polling station in Bunschoten in 1959 (or earlier), when GPV just missed out on a seat.

[DavidB.]

Huh, good point.

The polling station in Urk where the SGP received the most votes is perhaps unsurprising: Johannes Calvijnschool, 65.3%.

The PVV got a whopping 59.5% at Tenniscentrum Rico in St. Willebrord, municipality of Rucphen.

GL got 42.3% and D66 27.5% at Eetcafé De Oerknal (the Big Bang) in Amsterdam at the Science Park Campus of the UvA.

[Diouf]

Was on exchange in Maastricht a few years ago. The place where I lived is right between a typical student place with D66, GL and VVD top and a typical Limburg middle/working class place with many similar, smallish 1/2-level houses with PVV, VVD, CDA top.

[DavidB.]

I live in one of these PVV/Denk areas: beautiful tribute to multiculturalism.

[freek]

Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.

And one in Winsum.

[Zinneke]

Was on exchange in Maastricht a few years ago. The place where I lived is right between a typical student place with D66, GL and VVD top and a typical Limburg middle/working class place with many similar, smallish 1/2-level houses with PVV, VVD, CDA top.

Its insane how divided Maastricht is between the touristy city centre and the suburbs in terms of how it looks and feels. A lot of the locals I know say that the real divide is not the river but the railway station and you are in a different city once you cross it. I imagine looking at that place its a political divide too.

Also, it has the "new wijcken" from the boom in population after WW2, which have cheaper housing and thus poorer demographics, but you find that with a lot of Dutch cities.

[Hifly]

Is there a polling district map for 2012, to compare?