Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[freek]

Is there a polling district map for 2012, to compare?

There is this one, but the pop up windows that show the results in detail are broken

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2012/10/03/wat-stemden-uw-buren-a1483984

[Tintrlvr]

I spent a while searching for bizarre polling districts where D66/PVV or PVV/D66 (or, for that matter, GL/PVV or PVV/GL) were first and second and couldn't find any. Anyone have better luck than me?

There were some polling districts in southern Rotterdam (and maybe elsewhere) where Denk/PVV or PVV/Denk were first and second, but that's not really surprising.

[DavidB.]

Hmm, this wasn't difficult for me... but I'm a native who knows where to look after all.

PVV/D66: BS De Vier Leeuwen, Rotterdam (Rubroek neighborhood)
PVV/GL: Huis van het Wijk de Steiger, Rotterdam (Katendrecht)
These polling stations can be found close to inner cities where the PVV are strong (WWC presence) but gentrification is taking place.
GL/PVV: Wijkcentrum 't Lindenkwadrant, The Hague (Valkenboskwartier)
D66/PVV: Buurthuis Het Voorhof, Delft; Delft has many students but quite some PVV voters too.

Basisschool De Odyssee in Amsterdam West is a Denk/VVD polling station, which I found to be an interesting combination too (I'd expect Leidsche Rijn in Utrecht to have some of these too -- edit: yup, one.).

[Nanwe]

Was on exchange in Maastricht a few years ago. The place where I lived is right between a typical student place with D66, GL and VVD top and a typical Limburg middle/working class place with many similar, smallish 1/2-level houses with PVV, VVD, CDA top.

Its insane how divided Maastricht is between the touristy city centre and the suburbs in terms of how it looks and feels. A lot of the locals I know say that the real divide is not the river but the railway station and you are in a different city once you cross it. I imagine looking at that place its a political divide too.

Also, it has the "new wijcken" from the boom in population after WW2, which have cheaper housing and thus poorer demographics, but you find that with a lot of Dutch cities.

Having lived and studied in Maastricht this is pretty accurate. The city centre up to the railway lines and also parts of the suburbs close to the Randwijck campus all have a university town feel, with plenty of cafés and stuff like that. But indeed, after crossing the highway, it's like an entirely different town, at least on the eastern side of the river. On the western side, you get the same after leaving the Centrum area beyond the Koningin Emmaplein area, in which there are plenty of students but there is still a working class feel to it.

[DavidB.]

The PVV today announced that they will stand in five additional municipalities in the local elections, which will take place in March 2018. Since 2010 the PVV have been part of the municipal councils in Almere (where they are the largest party) and The Hague (where they are the second party), but next year they will also give it a shot in Enschede, Almelo, Twenterand, Urk and Rotterdam. Enschede and Almelo are historically industrial cities in Eastern Overijssel; while Almelo is truly in decline, Enschede seems to have found a way to "reinvent" itself and is the home of Twente University. The PVV did well in both municipalities in the general election: 18% in Almelo, 15.6% in Enschede. Twenterand is a rural municipality (Freek could probably tell us more about it); they got 15.6% there. I don't really know why they picked this place; perhaps they think they have some talented people there. Urk is the heart of the Bible Belt. They will get 2-3 seats at most there.

The biggest deal is competing in Rotterdam, where Leefbaar Rotterdam have been an important political force since 2002. The PVV standing there will inevitably hurt Leefbaar, perhaps to the point where they won't be the largest party in the next election, but I'm not convinced most Leefbaar voters will go PVV: Leefbaar have an excellent record. This is bound to be a disappointment for the PVV and in my opinion a really petty, childish choice solely aimed at taking Leefbaar down (either that or they are truly delusional enough to believe they will win by a landslide). For this reason I will certainly not vote for the PVV next year in my own city; it's probably going to be VVD.

[Tender Branson]

Get yourself someone who looks at you the way the polling assistants looks at Klaver casting his vote in den Haag.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[freek]

The PVV today announced that they will stand in five additional municipalities in the local elections, which will take place in March 2018. Since 2010 the PVV have been part of the municipal councils in Almere (where they are the largest party) and The Hague (where they are the second party), but next year they will also give it a shot in Enschede, Almelo, Twenterand, Urk and Rotterdam. Enschede and Almelo are historically industrial cities in Eastern Overijssel; while Almelo is truly in decline, Enschede seems to have found a way to "reinvent" itself and is the home of Twente University. The PVV did well in both municipalities in the general election: 18% in Almelo, 15.6% in Enschede. Twenterand is a rural municipality (Freek could probably tell us more about it); they got 15.6% there. I don't really know why they picked this place; perhaps they think they have some talented people there. Urk is the heart of the Bible Belt. They will get 2-3 seats at most there.

PVV choosing Twenterand is quite interesting. It is unlike the other rural municipalities in Twente. Villages as Vriezenveen, Vroomshoop or Westerhaar were founded for peat extraction (similar to Drenthe) and later people worked in the textile industry and in construction. It is still relatively poor, with higher than average unemployment, but it is not as bad as in Eastern Groningen. Politically it is on the edge of the Bible Belt (CU+SGP 14% together), and also PVV scores higher than in other municipalities in Twente (but still around the national average).

[DavidB.]

Interesting, Freek! Truly didn't know about these differences between Twenterand and places like Dinkelland or Tubbergen.

FvD's youth organization JFVD, founded four days ago, now has more than 2500 members, almost as many as VVD youth organization JOVD, who have about 2700 members. Baudet was in a hurry because he needed more than 1000 members before the end of March to receive subsidies for JFVD in 2017, but he easily managed to surpass this target. He also founded a "scientific institute" -- which all Dutch political parties have since they get subsidies for it -- named the Renaissance Institute.

[jeron]

The PVV today announced that they will stand in five additional municipalities in the local elections, which will take place in March 2018. Since 2010 the PVV have been part of the municipal councils in Almere (where they are the largest party) and The Hague (where they are the second party), but next year they will also give it a shot in Enschede, Almelo, Twenterand, Urk and Rotterdam. Enschede and Almelo are historically industrial cities in Eastern Overijssel; while Almelo is truly in decline, Enschede seems to have found a way to "reinvent" itself and is the home of Twente University. The PVV did well in both municipalities in the general election: 18% in Almelo, 15.6% in Enschede. Twenterand is a rural municipality (Freek could probably tell us more about it); they got 15.6% there. I don't really know why they picked this place; perhaps they think they have some talented people there. Urk is the heart of the Bible Belt. They will get 2-3 seats at most there.

PVV choosing Twenterand is quite interesting. It is unlike the other rural municipalities in Twente. Villages as Vriezenveen, Vroomshoop or Westerhaar were founded for peat extraction (similar to Drenthe) and later people worked in the textile industry and in construction. It is still relatively poor, with higher than average unemployment, but it is not as bad as in Eastern Groningen. Politically it is on the edge of the Bible Belt (CU+SGP 14% together), and also PVV scores higher than in other municipalities in Twente (but still around the national average).

Only Vriezenveen is truly on the edge of the Bible Belt. places like Vroomshoop and Westerhaar are the poorest parts of the municipality and PVV scored the highest there (one polling station in Vroomshoop had 34% OVV) These villages are probably as bad as bad as Eastern Groningen economically.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Famous Mortimer]

Wrote a paper about the future of the PvdA for a grad school application.

Basically just used this thread as a major source.

Now I need real sources though. Wondering if anyone (probably David cus everyone else hates me) can help. Dutch language newspapers are fine.

Need articles which state the following:

PVV is left economically

PVV won the White working class in 2017.

SP came in second among the White working class in 2017.

Jan Marijnissen is immigration skeptic.

A majority of Muslims voted for DENK.

Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.

[Hifly]

Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.

Americans should be aware that "Hindustani" is not the contemporary term used to describe the persons from that part of the world.

[Zinneke]

Wrote a paper about the future of the PvdA for a grad school application.

Basically just used this thread as a major source.

Now I need real sources though. Wondering if anyone (probably David cus everyone else hates me) can help. Dutch language newspapers are fine.

Need articles which state the following:

PVV is left economically

PVV won the White working class in 2017.

SP came in second among the White working class in 2017.

Jan Marijnissen is immigration skeptic.

A majority of Muslims voted for DENK.

Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.

This should be good.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.

Americans should be aware that "Hindustani" is not the contemporary term used to describe the persons from that part of the world.

It is a contemporary term to describe people of Indo-Surinamese descent.

[Maxwell]

PVV is left of VVD, but I wouldn't call that left overall.

[Hifly]

Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.

Americans should be aware that "Hindustani" is not the contemporary term used to describe the persons from that part of the world.

It is a contemporary term to describe people of Indo-Surinamese descent.

Not in English-speaking countries.

[DavidB.]

Hindustani is the common Dutch term for people from Suriname of Indian descent. I don't know of any other such term.

>PVV is left economically.
Favorite VVD talking point but not actually true, or at least it's not that simple. It's difficult to pinpoint the PVV ideologically, both when it comes to economic issues and to other issues, but most would say they are somewhere in the center: lower pension age on the one hand, lower taxes on the other hand. I always use the CHES (Chapel Hill Expert Survey) dataset to get to know parties' political positions (insert obligatory comment on the pros and cons of using expert surveys here). On variable lrecon (left-right economics) the PVV score 8.3 in 2006, 5.1 in 2010 and 4.5 in the most recent survey of 2014 on a scale from 0 (left-wing) to 10 (right-wing); this would indicate that the PVV, indeed, are more on the left than on the right nowadays; still doubtful whether that classification means the party is left-wing, but that's up to you.

>PVV won working class
You're probably not going to find any exit polls on class, but based on Ipsos' exit poll on education (see at the bottom of the page "opleidingsniveau") 40% of the PVV's electorate consisted of lower educated voters, more than any other party. 15% of the VVD's electorate were lower educated and while they got 21% and the PVV 13%, the PVV should have gotten a bigger share of lower educated voters and therefore have won them (I haven't made any calculations here though). You will also need to motivate using education as a proxy for class, but given that there are no direct questions about class in polls here you should be safe.

> SP came in second with working-class voters
Same story, but I don't know for sure if this is true (though it probably is). You should calculate this.

>Jan Marijnissen is immigration skeptic
This is going to be a tough one, and I don't think it's actually true. You could refer to Gastarbeid en Kapitaal (1983) but I don't even know if Marijnissen had a role in that. In parliament Marijnissen has always advocated for fewer restrictions for refugees, not more -- it is integration where he seems to have talked more toughly. Regardless, there is too little information (and too much contradicting information) to make this bold a statement about Marijnissen's immigration views.

>A majority of Muslims voted DENK.
Pollster Maurice de Hond (Peil.nl) here concludes on the basis of some data that "about half" of the Dutch Muslim voters who turned out voted DENK. So avoid the word majority.

>Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.
Wouldn't use the term "significantly" here, but there are various sources that show many Hindustanis vote PVV, some of them more reputable than others. In this newspaper article, anthropologist Shashi Roopram, himself Hindustani, talks about his qualitative research project on Hindustanis and the PVV, in which he concluded that the PVV attract Hindustani voters from all social classes. He says the PVV are mainly popular because of Hindu nationalism and the fact that Hindustanis view themselves as a more successful minority than Muslims. However, there's no hard numbers on this.

[Famous Mortimer]

Any traditionally working class electoral districts where I can point to the success of the PVV and the SP as evidence of their popularity with the White working class?

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, obviously, thanks! That was super fast.

[DavidB.]

Any traditionally working class electoral districts where I can point to the success of the PVV and the SP as evidence of their popularity with the White working class?

The Netherlands does not have any electoral districts, but you can refer to their success in the municipalities of Pekela (24% PVV, 24% SP, both sharp increase) in the north, Kerkrade (PVV 28.9%, SP 19.3%) in the south, Nissewaard (PVV 23.7, SP 10.5%) in the west. (The PVV got 13.1% and the SP 9.1% nationally). If you need more, let me know or simply check this map and click places in the far south or northeast where PVV or SP came first.

[Famous Mortimer]

Great! Very helpful. Only have to re-word things a tiny bit.

[Famous Mortimer]

Just one more! A source saying that Muslims used to support the PvdA?

[Zinneke]

Just one more! A source saying that Muslims used to support the PvdA?

https://wijblijvenhier.nl/15192/stemgedrag-moslims-sp-groeit-het-sterkst-maar-pvda-wint/

Very poor sample though. But it should do as a source. For alternativez, Just google stegedrag + moslims +nederland 2012

Btw, how does your paper not change dramatically given DavidB's corrections? And just out of curiousity, how do you define working class?

EDIT
http://www.ad.nl/binnenland/pvv-wil-meedoen-in-zestig-gemeenteraden~ac5ab962/

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.

Seems like Wilders is looking to consolidate the party now.

[DavidB.]

Well, this is waiting for a disaster to happen.