Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented  (Read 269968 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #2000 on: April 05, 2017, 01:16:02 PM »
« edited: April 05, 2017, 01:20:07 PM by DavidB. »

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.
Based on the map in the newspaper article it wouldn't be an "all-out assault": in South Limburg they would only stand in Maastricht, Stein, Sittard-Geleen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf and Heerlen (but not in Onderbanken and Brunssum, two of the smaller municipalities where they perform very well).

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2001 on: April 05, 2017, 02:00:41 PM »

Ugh, of f**king course GL would sell out at the first opportunity.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2002 on: April 05, 2017, 04:37:11 PM »

Ugh, of f**king course GL would sell out at the first opportunity.
That remains to be seen. Still think it's not going to happen.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #2003 on: April 05, 2017, 04:53:09 PM »

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2004 on: April 05, 2017, 05:39:42 PM »

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?
In 2010 and 2014 they only ran lists in The Hague and Almere, two cities where the PVV are strong, so 60 municipalities would be a very big step already. The PVV are not a party with members, and there is no hierarchical structure to attract capable candidates and separate the wheat from the chaff. Wilders decides on everything and is extremely paranoid -- partly because he's very narcissistic, but in this case partly because of the (rightful) fear that far-right loons would become politicians without being filtered out by the PVV organization and damage the party's national image. The PVV brand is very toxic and anyone who has been a PVV politician will have a very hard time ever getting another job, so the party is bound to attract only those who are extremely ideological and/or have very little to lose, which can be a pretty toxic combination. But the party has had a very hard time attracting capable candidates for this year's parliamentary election: most new MPs were members of provincial councils. It seems Wilders has accepted that something needs to change and that this could happen by running lists in municipalities where they do well (which is the case for all of the above municipalities). I personally doubt they will actually stand in all of these places, but we will see.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #2005 on: April 05, 2017, 06:28:27 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2017, 06:33:38 PM by Rogier »

Some thoughts based on what DavidB said : the PVV started on the national stage, in the corridors of the Hague parliament, with Wilders' defection from the VVD and the publicity surrounding it.  They saw no value in building local parties, because like David said it revolves around Geert Wilders and his involvement in the Hague.
Other anti-mainstream parties have started with grassroots or civil society figures at more local levels and worked their way up. Case point : Wilder's predecessor, Pim Fortuyn, who surfed on the Leefbaar movement before becoming a national figure. Or Baudet from the Ukraine referendum and his thinktank.

So you've got two contrasting strategies if you want to make a new inroad in Dutch politics. You either defect with a big enough temper tantrum to raise national awareness and try to keep the spotlight on you (Wilders, Kurzu). Or you build from a civil society nackground or local movement then fill in voids in the electoral market on a national level (FvD, Fortuyn, to a lesser extent SP, early D66).

Also, overpersonalisation around Fortuyn led to the downfall of LPF-Leefbaar, albeit in tragic circumstances. Wilders might be realising that right now. It'll be interesting to see how he runs his party now though.
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freek
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« Reply #2006 on: April 06, 2017, 06:14:51 AM »

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.
Based on the map in the newspaper article it wouldn't be an "all-out assault": in South Limburg they would only stand in Maastricht, Stein, Sittard-Geleen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf and Heerlen (but not in Onderbanken and Brunssum, two of the smaller municipalities where they perform very well).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8oUOXuXgAIiX4R.jpg
Participating in Edam-Volendam next year will be a bit of a challenge, there were early elections in 2015 because of the merger with Zeevang. The next elections are planned in 2022.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2007 on: April 06, 2017, 06:33:11 AM »

And Theo Hiddema had already confirmed to PowNed that FvD's visit to Volendam earlier this week could partly be understood as a way to be in touch with their voters before the municipal election. LOL.
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jeron
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« Reply #2008 on: April 07, 2017, 02:24:17 AM »

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

GL, D66 and SP have a low presence in the Bible belt
SGP doesn't run in most cities
CU and SGP generally stay out of heavy Catholic areas.
PvdA didn't run in 2014 in several smaller municipalities last time like Urk, Renswoude and Nieuwkoop.
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Zuza
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« Reply #2009 on: April 07, 2017, 09:03:48 AM »

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

GL, D66 and SP have a low presence in the Bible belt
SGP doesn't run in most cities
CU and SGP generally stay out of heavy Catholic areas.
PvdA didn't run in 2014 in several smaller municipalities last time like Urk, Renswoude and Nieuwkoop.

But I thought PVV has a significant enough presence in almost all municipalities.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2010 on: April 07, 2017, 10:33:48 AM »

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?
Most parties don't run in every municipality.
True, but a party the size of the PVV could be expected to stand almost everywhere.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2011 on: April 10, 2017, 07:10:21 PM »

So the formation is slowly moving forward and the longer it takes, the likelier the VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition obviously becomes. Informateur Edith Schippers, the leader of the negotiations, gives a weekly press conference on the developments but only talks about procedural points, not about policy issues. The four parties are looking to formulate a "common vision" for the country because they think they cannot just be unified by compromises.

According to peil.nl's latest poll, 76% would approve of a majority government (which VVD-CDA-D66-GL would be) being formed and only 18% of a minority government. Old habits die hard. Voters approve of none of the party leaders at the negotiating table: on a scale from 0 to 10 Buma gets a 5.3, Pechtold a 5.2, Klaver a 5.1 and Rutte a 5.0. Informateur Schippers does get a 5.5, which is the minimum passable grade in the Dutch system.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #2012 on: April 12, 2017, 06:36:26 AM »

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.
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Intell
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« Reply #2013 on: April 12, 2017, 06:50:55 AM »

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

What left-wing government?

I see 3 right-wing parties leading, that are going to  over workers and the poor.

Also fyck the Green Left, I hate these sort of feel good identity left-wing parties, that join right-wing coalitions, and do nothing to the cause of dis-enfranchised and dispossessed. What can you expect from this sort of party, that has the voter demographics, that the Green Left has.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #2014 on: April 12, 2017, 08:06:29 AM »

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

What left-wing government?

I see 3 right-wing parties leading, that are going to  over workers and the poor.

Also fyck the Green Left, I hate these sort of feel good identity left-wing parties, that join right-wing coalitions, and do nothing to the cause of dis-enfranchised and dispossessed. What can you expect from this sort of party, that has the voter demographics, that the Green Left has.



GL's power in the coalition will depend on the type. It could be one (like the last) where the ministries are divided up and every party does their main policy to the fullest extent within their ministries, without outside interference, and then some sort of compromise on the economy. In that case GL would be given Environment and watch as right-wing policy comes into full force. I would think GL would eventually decide to collapse the government and an interim one with the religious parties would be formed. They could still recover based on their record in their policy field and the two other left parties being an utter shambles.

Or it could be that GL basically negotiate on every single policy to ensure you have what looks like a centrist coalition, in which case GL would probably see it through and suffer an electoral drubbing as moderate heroes tend to do.

I really think that there will be a stumbling block that allows Klaver to walk away from the deal though. He is only doing this because our political bubbles in the Lowlands still think in net winners and net losers after elections as a formation rule.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2015 on: April 12, 2017, 08:11:40 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2017, 08:13:54 AM by DavidB. »

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.
I agree with much of your criticism of voters who regret their VVD vote all the time but suddenly start supporting the VVD again in the campaign when they talk about their plans, of course, but the PVV are to blame here too (and I ended up voting for them, mind you). First,  they didn't do sh**t to attract swing voters in the campaign: only their base turned out for them. Second, and most importantly, they have become completely uncoalitionable due to the way Rutte-I collapsed and the way they turned to the right afterwards. The PVV are to blame too. Perhaps the VVD would not be forming a government with GL (which I'm still not sure will happen, but a government with CU wouldn't be that different anyway) if the option with the PVV were still on the table.

I really think that there will be a stumbling block that allows Klaver to walk away from the deal though.
I still expect this to happen too.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #2016 on: April 12, 2017, 08:50:50 AM »

Wilders should be blamed for his result by performing one of the worst campaign ever. He placed himself out the government by his ridiculous A4 program and ruling out the VVD under Rutte. Most centre right voters are happy by this result as thanks to his abysmal campaign the centre right (VVD+CDA+D66+CU) can govern without the left or the far right. Talks with the GL will (a bit unfortunately) probably fail in the coming weeks.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2017 on: April 12, 2017, 09:53:20 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2017, 10:28:27 AM by DavidB. »

I'm not a voter in that category, but I don't disagree with your analysis.

Btw for those who wonder, I ended up voting PVV over FvD after being undecided until 6PM on election day because FvD don't have positions on a lot of issues yet, including stuff related to Israel, and I wanted to know what I voted for (with the PVV at least I know what I'm going to disagree with; nothing related to Israel), because I wanted to vote for Gidi Markuszower more than for Theo Hiddema, and because I didn't think I had any right to complain about the PVV's underperformance if I didn't vote for them myself. I also thought they "deserved" my vote after being right on so many issues for ten years in my opinion, even if I've disagreed with some things, their campaign was sh**t and they had no chance of being in the government. Let's say it was a sincere vote for a testimonial party. It's probably been the last time I voted for them though, at least on the national level (though I may still vote for them in European elections).
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Klartext89
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« Reply #2018 on: April 13, 2017, 03:36:20 AM »

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.
I agree with much of your criticism of voters who regret their VVD vote all the time but suddenly start supporting the VVD again in the campaign when they talk about their plans, of course, but the PVV are to blame here too (and I ended up voting for them, mind you). First,  they didn't do sh**t to attract swing voters in the campaign: only their base turned out for them. Second, and most importantly, they have become completely uncoalitionable due to the way Rutte-I collapsed and the way they turned to the right afterwards. The PVV are to blame too. Perhaps the VVD would not be forming a government with GL (which I'm still not sure will happen, but a government with CU wouldn't be that different anyway) if the option with the PVV were still on the table.


I always said that leaving Rutte-I was the dumbest thing to do but I wasn't talking about that.
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« Reply #2019 on: April 13, 2017, 06:15:15 AM »

I'm not a voter in that category, but I don't disagree with your analysis.

Btw for those who wonder, I ended up voting PVV over FvD after being undecided until 6PM on election day because FvD don't have positions on a lot of issues yet, including stuff related to Israel, and I wanted to know what I voted for (with the PVV at least I know what I'm going to disagree with; nothing related to Israel), because I wanted to vote for Gidi Markuszower more than for Theo Hiddema, and because I didn't think I had any right to complain about the PVV's underperformance if I didn't vote for them myself. I also thought they "deserved" my vote after being right on so many issues for ten years in my opinion, even if I've disagreed with some things, their campaign was sh**t and they had no chance of being in the government. Let's say it was a sincere vote for a testimonial party. It's probably been the last time I voted for them though, at least on the national level (though I may still vote for them in European elections).

David, please start your own testimonial party for gay Zionists.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #2020 on: April 13, 2017, 07:13:23 AM »

I'm not a voter in that category, but I don't disagree with your analysis.

Btw for those who wonder, I ended up voting PVV over FvD after being undecided until 6PM on election day because FvD don't have positions on a lot of issues yet, including stuff related to Israel, and I wanted to know what I voted for (with the PVV at least I know what I'm going to disagree with; nothing related to Israel), because I wanted to vote for Gidi Markuszower more than for Theo Hiddema, and because I didn't think I had any right to complain about the PVV's underperformance if I didn't vote for them myself. I also thought they "deserved" my vote after being right on so many issues for ten years in my opinion, even if I've disagreed with some things, their campaign was sh**t and they had no chance of being in the government. Let's say it was a sincere vote for a testimonial party. It's probably been the last time I voted for them though, at least on the national level (though I may still vote for them in European elections).

David, please start your own testimonial party for gay Zionists.

That might be too small a base for a party.. even in the Netherlands. Wink
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mvd10
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« Reply #2021 on: April 14, 2017, 12:05:38 PM »

The formation talks on Thursday were cancelled because Klaver's mother is seriously ill. Bram van Ojik replaced Klaver on Wednesday and made a painful mistake: he accidentally showed a formation document and journalists were able to take pictures (the same thing that happened to Kobach in the US). If you zoom in you can read something about the threat that drones represent, a picture of Putin and the words ''dreigingsbeeld defensie'' (translates into something like national security threats). There was nothing huge in it, but it still is a blunder for someone as experienced as van Ojik.

Van Ojik might actually have a chance to be our next foreign minister lol. GroenLinks probably will demand heavy concessions and top cabinet jobs and van Ojik is one of their most prominent politicians (he was their leader from 2012 to 2015). Foreign policy is his area of expertise, he used to be a diplomat. I really hope that won't happen. He probably is better than most GL politicians on foreign policy, but that doesn't say much. I don't think he will become foreign affairs minister though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2022 on: April 14, 2017, 05:59:46 PM »

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2023 on: April 15, 2017, 05:24:03 AM »

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.

You mean a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition? I still think the most likely scenario is that the talks collapse in a couple of weeks and a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet will be formed, but I wouldn't be surprised anymore if we actually end up with VVD-CDA-D66-GL.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #2024 on: April 15, 2017, 05:43:31 AM »

The very fact that a coalition with the CU is possible weakens GroenLinks's negotiation position and only makes it further likely that the talks will fail. Chances are that this is all still for show and is taking place mostly to mollify D66.
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