Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented  (Read 269978 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #2075 on: May 18, 2017, 11:26:35 AM »

Pechtold does not want to negotiate with CU (yet): D66 are not willing to sacrifice the assisted suicide initiative. Instead, Pechtold wants SP or PvdA to join VVD, CDA and D66. Chances that this will happen are very slim: the SP rule out government cooperation with the VVD whereas the PvdA are obviously not eager to enter the government with three right-wing parties.
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« Reply #2076 on: May 18, 2017, 12:50:28 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 12:52:02 PM by Rogier »

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #2077 on: May 18, 2017, 01:05:17 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 01:09:38 PM by SunSt0rm »

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.
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jeron
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« Reply #2078 on: May 18, 2017, 02:32:45 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 02:35:43 PM by jeron »

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.

It's not just about the social issues of course. The previous time D66 entered a coalition with VVD and CDA it was reduced to zero seats in the polls and eventually ended up with 3 seats partly thanks to the Turkish vote. D66 wants to prevent that from happening again at all cost.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2079 on: May 18, 2017, 02:49:00 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 02:51:29 PM by mvd10 »

D66 basically tried to outflank the VVD on economics for the past couple of years. It worked if you look at the election results, but a lot of D66 members aren't really happy about Pechtold's more economically liberal course. There are movements inside D66 which want D66 to become more left-wing. Joining a coalition with VVD, CDA and CU (they're not really left-wing on economics anymore) while Jesse Klaver is in the opposition isn't a great electoral strategy. D66 would get it's way on a lot of economic issues, but they're fairly out of touch with their supporters on economic issues anyway and they would make absolutely zero progress on social issues (and the base completely agrees with D66 on social issues).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2080 on: May 19, 2017, 01:03:54 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2017, 01:22:36 PM by DəvidB. »

Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2081 on: May 19, 2017, 02:10:17 PM »

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.

What exactly is the euthanasia initiative?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #2082 on: May 19, 2017, 08:15:08 PM »

Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!
Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.
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Kamala
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« Reply #2083 on: May 19, 2017, 08:15:58 PM »

Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!
Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.

I don't think PvdD is at all interested in governing.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2084 on: May 19, 2017, 08:56:48 PM »

What exactly is the euthanasia initiative?
It is currently available for people who are suffering from a terminal illness, but D66 want to make it available for anybody over 75 that just does not feel like living anymore (and are pretty clear about the fact that eventually they want to make it available for people under 75 too). VVD, PvdA, GL want this too, but D66 are most outspoken about it.

Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.
No. CDA should absolutely be seen as a right-wing party nowadays and have no interest in governing with this many left-wing parties. Keep in mind that the CDA were the most vigorous opponent of many of GL's demands in the negotiations on GreenRight.

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.
You're right. This should be their website but I can't find anything for 2010 and 2012. Will take a look this weekend if I can find them for you, but I don't know if I will find them... would have expected them here.

D66's stance is mainly symbolic. Their new progressive crown jewels are the issues that are closest to their heart and if they have to compromise on environmental, international and migration issues in a coalition with VVD and CDA they would at least like to "win" these points, which are very tangible and important to their legacy. With CU this will be impossible.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2085 on: May 20, 2017, 10:25:40 AM »

@Rogier: You can download the NKO 2012 files here and the NKO 2010 files here. You have to create an account first, but it appears that you can do this for free.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #2086 on: May 20, 2017, 10:40:47 AM »

@Rogier: You can download the NKO 2012 files here and the NKO 2010 files here. You have to create an account first, but it appears that you can do this for free.

thanks!
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mvd10
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« Reply #2087 on: May 21, 2017, 12:53:15 PM »

Prominent D66 member and probable next minister of economic affairs Kajsa Ollongren has basically ruled out VVD-CDA-D66-CU. She said she can't see it happening because of fundamental differences. Because apparently VVD and SP (D66 wants VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA/SP) don't have fundamental differences lol.
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Diouf
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« Reply #2088 on: May 21, 2017, 02:49:06 PM »

So we are more or less at certain minority government now, right? Even if VVD and CDA prefer majority government, stable leadership blah blah, it seems like a waste of time to pursue further majority government negotiations. Their job now should be to get the broadest possible support for such a minority government.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2089 on: May 21, 2017, 02:57:50 PM »

So we are more or less at certain minority government now, right? Even if VVD and CDA prefer majority government, stable leadership blah blah, it seems like a waste of time to pursue further majority government negotiations. Their job now should be to get the broadest possible support for such a minority government.

I'm not really sure. In the end someone (most likely Pechtold imo) will bite the bullet and start new negotiations. It's unsure whether those negotiations will be succesful, but right now I still think a majority government is more likely.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2090 on: May 21, 2017, 03:25:58 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 03:31:03 PM by DəvidB. »

I really don't know what the likeliest scenario would be right now. This could easily just be a tactical move for D66 in order to get as much as possible out of a deal with CU. It is important for them to show their voters that they are willing to make the other parties sweat. If after the weekend D66 still do not want to negotiate with CU, however, the ritual dance will first continue and a fruitless endeavor with the PvdA will probably have to take place before a minority government becomes a serious option.

I agree that the Diouf option would be the most sensible right now, but when Dutch ears hear the words minority government they hear instability -- and probably not completely without reason, as in the Dutch tradition, other than in Denmark or Sweden, parties outside the government really perceive themselves as opposition parties and are usually expected to do everything to take down the government. Tax reform will also be much more difficult with a minority. I still think it would be the most desirable option if the one with CU does not work out, but it has serious caveats too.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2091 on: May 21, 2017, 03:47:58 PM »

I really don't know what the likeliest scenario would be right now. This could easily just be a tactical move for D66 in order to get as much as possible out of a deal with CU. It is important for them to show their voters that they are willing to make the other parties sweat. If after the weekend D66 still do not want to negotiate with CU, however, the ritual dance will first continue and a fruitless endeavor with the PvdA will probably have to take place before a minority government becomes a serious option.

I agree that the Diouf option would be the most sensible right now, but when Dutch ears hear the words minority government they hear instability -- and probably not completely without reason, as in the Dutch tradition, other than in Denmark or Sweden, parties outside the government really perceive themselves as opposition parties and are usually expected to do everything to take down the government. Tax reform will also be much more difficult with a minority. I still think it would be the most desirable option if the one with CU does not work out, but it has serious caveats too.

Two questions:

1) What sort of tax reform is Rutte looking to pursue?

2) Assuming a VVD-CDA minority government is formed, how long would it take for the government to fall? Who would benefit/lose from new elections? Where would unsatisfied centre right voters go if both of the non-far right, non-Christian, rightist parties are in government?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2092 on: May 21, 2017, 04:37:13 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 04:39:21 PM by DəvidB. »

It would not be a VVD-CDA minority governmernt, it would be a VVD-CDA-D66 government. These parties have 71 seats and only need one party with five or more seats for policies to pass. A VVD-CDA government, on the other hand, would always need more than one additional party. It is difficult to say how soon a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government would fall, but D66 would probably lose a sizeable number of voters to GL. Not impossible to see VVD and CDA pick up support from the PVV in this scenario.

Of course different parties have different views on what a new tax system should look like, but parties appear to agree that the tax system needs to become more simple, that taxes for working people should be cut, that taxes on activities that cause pollution should go up (households currently pay a disproportional share compared to industry, whereas industry causes much more pollution) and that the transition toward green energy should be incentivized. There may also be a property tax hike, although the VVD will do everything they can to prevent this.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2093 on: May 22, 2017, 06:09:49 AM »

D66 want VVD-CDA-D66-SP-PvdA. Insanity...
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #2094 on: May 22, 2017, 06:25:32 AM »

D66 want VVD-CDA-D66-SP-PvdA. Insanity...

Why insanity? Why wouldn't we have a liberal-christian-socialist-democratic-conservative-progressive cabinet? Smiley
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2095 on: May 22, 2017, 08:53:15 AM »

Haha Tongue Aaaand it's gone: SP have rejected Pechtold's idea and instead propose a CDA-D66-SP-PvdA minority government, without the VVD. Lodewijk Asscher has stated that he would be willing to negotiate on this, but Buma and Pechtold himself will not do this. So the ritual dance that will presumably leave us with VVD-CDA-D66 continues.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2096 on: May 22, 2017, 08:56:56 AM »

I get that this is unusual because you need four parties to form government, but how long do these negotiations usually take?
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mvd10
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« Reply #2097 on: May 22, 2017, 09:02:10 AM »

90 days on average. It took 120+ days in 2010 and 2003. Ironically a CDA-VVD-D66 coalition was formed in 2003, but they had a majority in parliament.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2098 on: May 22, 2017, 09:08:51 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2017, 09:10:51 AM by DəvidB. »

CU leader Segers just changed his mind: no suicide assistance is no longer a "make or break" issue for him. Pressure on Pechtold will be immense now.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2099 on: May 22, 2017, 10:17:32 AM »

CU leader Segers just changed his mind: no suicide assistance is no longer a "make or break" issue for him. Pressure on Pechtold will be immense now.

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.
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